You gotta love the HFPA. The 80 or so members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association try so hard to make all their studio friends happy. They never want anyone to leave the insane and no longer necessary in this day and age 5:30 AM Pst Golden Globe Awards nominations announcement empty handed. It’s tough though; they don’t give out participation trophies in Hollywood.
(Although, cough, the Critics Choice Awards might count in terms of participation nominations).
Nevertheless, the HFPA also continue to surprise. And while they have spent most of this decade picking films and nominees that won’t embarrass them in front of their global media friends, they still have a few cringeworthy tricks up their sleeve. Word is they are big fans of borderline Oscar players such as “Hidden Figures,” “Patriots Day” and, sigh, “Hacksaw Ridge.” And if you don’t think the HFPA doesn’t want to help Mel Gibson with a comeback Best Director nomination you don’t know the HFPA.
Keeping that in mind and realizing not even the greatest television reporter could ever accurately guess what their TV nominations will be (I won’t even try) our sources have helped us tabulate some predictions for the 2017 film nods (Assuming the HFPA isn’t lying to them of course).
Best Foreign Language Film
Likely:
“Aquarius”
“Elle”
“The Handmaiden”
“Neruda”
“Toni Erdmann”
Possible:
“Julieta”
“Desierto”
Lowdown: Pedro Almodovar has been nominated seven times in this category and won twice before. Should we really bet against “Julieta” getting in? If it does “Aquarius” is likely out.
Best Picture – Drama
Likely:
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Possible:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hell or High Water”
“Loving”
“Patriot’s Day”
“Sully”
Lowdown: This category is brutal with every “possible” a true potential spoiler. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is somehow a “tie” and we get six nominees instead.
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
Likely:
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“La La Land”
“Love & Friendship”
“20th Century Women”
Possible:
“Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie”
“Bad Moms”
“Bridget Jones Baby”
“The Lobster”
“Edge of Seventeen”
“Sing Street”
Lowdown: That’s not a typo. Fox has been working “Deadpool” hard on the HFPA and it could land a nod over the expense of “Edge of Seventeen,” “The Lobster” or “Sing Street.” Or, maybe not.
Best Director
Likely:
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Clint Eastwood, “Sully”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
Possible:
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Garth Davis, “Lion”
Pablo Larrain, “Jackie”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Lowdown: Perhaps one of the most difficult to predict. They want to reward Eastwood and, as noted, love “Hacksaw.” Will they pick Lonergan, Villeneuve or Larrain over Scorsese?
Best Screenplay
Likely:
“Hell or High Water”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“Love and Friendship”
Possible:
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Fences”
“Nocturnal Animals”
“Patriots Day”
“20th Century Women”
“Sully”
Lowdown: If “La La Land” gets a nod here than its winning every category its up for in January. “Lion” is potentially on the bubble.
Best Actress – Drama
Likely:
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures”
Possible:
Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals”
Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train”
Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”
Marion Cotillard, “Allied”
Lowdown: Henson should make the cut, but if she doesn’t it because Chastain squeaked in ahead of her. Also, don’t be surprised if Huppert is upset here.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Likely:
Kate Beckinsale, “Love & Friendship”
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Sally Field, “My Name Is Doris”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Possible:
Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”
Sandra Huller, “Toni Erdmann”
Jennifer Saunders, “Absolutely Fabulous”
Hailee Steinfeld, “Edge of Seventeen”
Lowdown: Unless the HFPA want to make a progressive ingenue pick with Steinfeld the legendary Field should round out the, um, field.