Final Locked Down 89th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions

The time has come for The Academy to once again make history.  We’ve heard the nation’s critics chose their top films and performances. We’ve had the indie film community anoint their year-end honorees.  We’ve had every guild from the 213 to the 818 throw their own nominations into the ring. We’ve even had the Golden Globes reveal their winners early enough to *potentially* impact the Oscar nominations. And now we are just hours away from learning who benefited from the long slog on the global awards circuit.

Before revealing this pundit’s final predictions for the 89th Academy Awards nominations there are two categories that must be discussed because they are going to make people who do this for a living either look very smart or very dumb.

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The Isabelle Huppert factor
All the feedback I’ve heard from Academy members and consultants (some of which who don’t have a player in this particular category) is that Academy members are not watching “Elle” and/or are not fans of it. And, frankly, the fact it didn’t make the Foreign Language Film shortlist is a key indicator that particular feedback may be true. That being said, Isabelle Huppert earned major PR attention towards the end of voting with her Golden Globe upset win and anecdotes spread by the press of Academy members gushing over her. Yes, Colin Farrell went by and congratulated her at LAFCA, but that’s one voter out of the biggest branch in the Academy. There is also evidence of Academy members gushing over Annette Bening at the Palm Springs Film Festival Gala a week earlier. Who do you believe? Who do you want to believe? Will some members of the Acting branch vote for Huppert without seeing the movie? It’s possible, but that reasoning seems like a stretch. Unless Emily Blunt pulls an all-time upset shocker by rounding out the top five it’s either going to be Huppert or Bening. Personally, this prognosticator is rooting for both, but that would mean Meryl Streep likely getting the ax. After her Golden Globes speech, do you really think that’s going to happen?

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7, 8 or 9
What titles make the Best Picture field is truly going to be decided by how many nominees the Academy subconsciously agrees on this year. After three straight years of nine nominees the Academy has recognized eight for the past two seasons. Will that trend continue or could it revert back to nine? Moreover, will the increase in Academy membership (the 2016 class was the largest this century) potentially lead to fewer (seven) or will it lead to the maximum of 10 (a constant before the rules changed in 2012 )? How members fill out their ballots (each member ranks their top five picks) will determine whether borderline nominees such as “Hidden Figures” or “Hacksaw Ridge” land the Oscar’s most coveted nod.

Keeping all that in mind, here are some final predictions for you to consider.

The Academy Award nominations will be announced on Jan. 24.

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SOUND EDITING

“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Party crashers: “Doctor Strange,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
Lowdown: As always, a tough category to nail down completely. “Strange” and “Fantastic Beasts” could easily make the cut.

SOUND MIXING

“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Party crasher: “Deepwater Horizon
Lowdown: Likely your five.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Arrival”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“La La Land”
“Jackie”

Party crashers: “Doctor Strange,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” “The Handmaiden”
Lowdown: Only locks here are “Fantastic Beasts” and “La La Land.” The rest are questionable.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“A Man Called Ove”

Party crasher: “Hail, Caesar!”
Lowdown: Makeup is always a tough one to gauge, but we find it hard to believe “Star Trek Beyond” and “Suicide Squad,” which were shortlisted, will make it.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Cameraperson”
“The Eagle Huntress”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“O.J.: Made in America”
“13th”

Party crashers: “Gleason,” “Life, Animated”
Lowdown: “O.J.” and “I Am Not Your Negro” are absolutely in. The other three could get bumped by “Gleason” or “Life, Animated.”

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Arrival”
“Doctor Strange”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“The Jungle Book”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Party crasher: “Kubo and the Two Strings”
Lowdown: “Kubo” earning a nod here would make it the first animated film to ever land a Visual Effects nomination. Probably won’t happen though.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Australia, “Tanna,” Bentley Dean, Martin Butler, directors
Denmark, “Land of Mine,” Martin Zandvliet, director
Germany, “Toni Erdmann,” Maren Ade, director
Iran, “The Salesman,” Asghar Farhadi, director
Sweden, “A Man Called Ove,” Hannes Holm, director

Party crasher: Norway, “The King’s Choice,” Erik Poppe, director
Lowdown: If Xavier Dolan’s “It’s Only The End of The World” knocks “Tanna” or “A Man Called Ove” out there will be a loud scream from this pundit’s condo in Park City.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream”) — “La La Land”
“City of Stars” — “La La Land”
“How Far I’ll Go” — “Moana”
“Running” — “Hidden Figures”
“Faith” — “Sing”

Party crashers: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls”, “Drive It Like You Stole It,” from “Sing Street”
Lowdown: We’re assuming The Academy loves “La La Land” enough to earn two nominations. This is a category that always surprises and we’re expecting to be wrong about one or two of these nods.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Nicholas Britell, “Moonlight”
Hauschka, Dustin O’Halloran, “Lion”
Justin Hurwitz, “La La Land”
Mica Levi, “Jackie”
John Williams, “The BFG”

Party crasher: John Debney, “The Jungle Book,” Michael Giacchino, “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” Rupert Gregson-Williams, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Lowdown: John Williams has earned an Oscar nod for the last four scores he composed.  The scores for “Arrival ” and “Silence” were deemed ineligible by the Academy’s music branch.