The 70th Cannes Film Festival has come and gone, but its films will live on as the march toward awards season begins. 2017 has already delivered one true Oscar player in Luca Guadagnino‘s Sundance breakthrough “Call Me By Your Name” and now Cannes has a chance to add to the coffers of potential contenders. (And, yes, there is the question of Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” potentially earning a Best Picture nod, but at this point, I’m not sure it’s more than an Original Screenplay contender, although I reserve the right to change that opinion when we get to September.)
Last year’s surprise awards season player from la Croisette turned out to be “Hell or High Water.” What film or films will keep Cannes’ Oscar streak going this time around? Some thoughts…
The not-so curious case of Palme d’Or winner “The Square”
Newsflash: there are only three Palme d’Or winners to earn Best Picture nominations this century: “The Pianist,” “The Tree of Life” and “Amour.” You can pretty much guarantee Ruben Östlund’s latest won’t join that illustrious trio. For one, the Swedish filmmaker says the next cut of the picture will be significantly longer (over two and a half hours) and that means it may try the patience of Academy members who watch it. Granted, there were a bunch of Academy members on the jury that awarded it the Palme in the first place, but in this case, we’re not sure that’s going to translate to the overall membership. That being said, Magnolia Pictures, who is releasing the film in the U.S., has a shot for a Best Foreign Language Film nomination (although likely with a committee save) and 2017’s other “it” actress, Elisabeth Moss, could garner some Best Supporting Actress attention.
“The Florida Project” could be more than a Willem Dafoe play
Does A24 have another “Moonlight” or “Room” on their hands? Let’s just say “The Florida Project” may be the awards player the mini-major many thought “American Honey” might turn out to be, but wasn’t. Sean Baker’s transcendent drama that centers on the invisible homeless living in Orlando’s tourist motel row arguably earned the best reviews of the entire festival. From an awards standpoint, it’s a given that Willem Dafoe is a Best Supporting Actor contender for his moving performance, but Baker has a shot (don’t laugh) at both Best Director and Screenplay (along with co-writer Chris Bergoch). Yes, “The Florida Project” is “small,” but it’s no smaller than the A24’s other major players. The fact is, “The Florida Project” will resonate more with Academy voters than any other film that played at Cannes. And, most importantly, it has a heartbreaking and emotional ending that will move viewers. The key to the Academy’s heart is making them feel something. It will be a very tricky campaign for A24 to pull off, but considering their recent successes no one should discount their ability to do so.
How many Cannes movies will the Foreign Language committee have to save?
Every year after scores of Foreign Language Film submissions have been screened, the members who have taken the time to vote get their say. The committee, who oversees the entire branch’s efforts, then gets to save three films for future consideration (the final nine films are voted on by a new group of members to reach the final five nominees). It’s expected that the group who initially screens the films will be much more indicative of the true Academy beginning this season (as opposed to the retirees or unemployed below the line who have time go to screenings during the day in past years), but no one doubts the committee will have to intervene once more. The question is: how many Cannes submissions can it save? Assuming “Loveless” is Russia’s entry, it’s questionable whether it will make it through without a save. The same can be said for “120 Beats Per Minute” (and there’s still a chance France’s committee submits something else), the Palme d’Or-winning “The Square” (Sweden), and its a given for the often taxing and challenging “A Gentle Creature” (Ukraine). Germany’s “In the Fade,” on the other hand, is the sort of melodramatic thriller that should easily get in, but its current release date in its home country disqualifies it from contention this year. In theory, the distributor would be smart to move it, but speaking of “In The Fade”….
Is Diane Kruger a stealth Best Actress nominee contender?
Kruger arguably hasn’t had a moment that would endear her to cinephiles since her work in “Inglorious Basterds,” but that all changed with Fatih Akin’s “In the Fade.” The 40-year-old actress delivers a powerhouse performance as a woman whose husband and son are killed in a terrorist attack, and she overcame strong competition across the board for the jury’s Best Actress honor. There are two things working in Kruger’s favor when it comes to Oscar, assuming the movie is released in the U.S. and someone actually campaigns her. The first is, while the role is spoken in her native tongue, German, Kruger has lived and worked in Hollywood for almost her entire career. She has been a fixture on the awards circuit for years (at one time she and former partner Joshua Jackson were everywhere) and in her commercial roles she’s worked with a ton of Academy members. Second, the role of a woman battling white supremacists (basically modern day neo-Nazis) will absolutely resonate with Academy members both in the U.S. and around the world. Granted, it’s unclear who exactly is releasing “In the Fade” in the U.S. if anyone at the moment (Warner Bros. has German rights), but if it qualifies, she’s absolutely a player.
Nicole Kidman now has two chances for back-to-back Oscar nominations
After “Big Little Lies” and four projects at Cannes, 2017 has pretty much been Nicole Kidman’s year (and that doesn’t even count her Supporting Actress nomination for “Lion” in January). The Aussie Oscar winner had two films debut at Cannes, “The Beguiled” and “Killing of a Sacred Deer,” and earned critical kudos for each. The question is, will they compete against each other? In theory, both roles could be framed as Supporting Actress or Lead Actress contenders. With Kidman’s “Beguiled” co-stars Kirsten Dunst and Elle Fanning clearly supporting it would make sense that she race in the lead category for Sofia Coppola’s thriller. ‘Sacred Deer’ is also probably a lead (maybe?) campaign, but A24 could certainly try position it as supporting. In either case, expect to see multiple Golden Globe and SAG nominations for Kidman for both her TV and film work this December.