You have to give credit to Warner Bros., Alcon Entertainment and Sony Pictures. They sort of faked the media out. One of the most anticipated films of the year, there were strangely no early screenings of Denis Villenuve’s “Blade Runner 2049.” Sure, some agents and vendors working on marketing materials saw it. Maybe a scattering of long lead buzz filtered through the ether, but not much. Villeneuve’s previous five films all debuted at either Telluride, Cannes, TIFF or Venice. The idea “Blade” wasn’t debuting at even TIFF – only a month before opening – was a huge red flag. It must not work, right? A sequel to Ridley Scott’s 1982 landmark Sci-Fi masterpiece? I mean, pulling that off would be a tough task for any filmmaker, even someone with the acclaimed talents of Villeneuve.
The filmmakers and the studios (it’s unclear who exactly came up with the strategy) waited until pretty much the last possible minute to screen for press. And they added an NDA to boot (usually used when a film is so bad the studio wants to hold all reactions). Before the screening a publicist even read a note from Villeneuve asking the critics and media on hand to respect the spoilers in the film and not ruin it for moviegoers (or something along those lines).
Secrets.
There are lots of secrets in “Blade Runner 2049” and it’s now clear everyone involved were and still are trying to keep the experience as unspoiled for moviegoers as possible. And judging by most of the non-embargoed social media reactions there should be a slew of positive and some euphoric reviews this morning. The question for this pundit and anyone reading this column is can that translate into awards season love?
Likely.
“Blade Runner’s” best bets are three-fold: Best Director (Villeneuve), Supporting Actor (Harrison Ford, we’ll get there) and the below-the-line categories.
The below-the-line are the easiest. Roger Deakins is absolutely in the race for his 14th Cinematography nomination. Will he win? Competition is as fierce as always with Hoyte van Hoytema (“Dunkirk”), Dan Lausten (“Shape of Water”), Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (“Call Me By Your Name”) and the always formidable Janusz Kamiński (“The Post”) as serious competition. Editor Joe Walker, already a two-time nominee for “Arrival” and “12 Years A Slave,” could return to the Dolby Theater as should five-time nominee Dennis Glaser who won this Production Design Oscar for “Bugsy.” Sound categories? A given. Original score? It’s possible, but the score is so similar to Vangelis‘ contributions to the original film the Music branch might pass. And, last but not least, Visual Effects? Let’s just say there is a stunning moment which likely puts “Blade Runner” in the driver’s seat to take that Oscar home.
After Villeneuve’s breakthrough nomination in the Best Directing category for “Arrival” earlier this year his work here will likely be lauded again by his peers in the Directing branch. The weakest part of the film is the screenplay by Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, but Villeneuve has clearly tried to strip away it’s clunkiness as much as he can through a visual style and a tone that many will praise as hypnotic. The Canadian born filmmaker also has constructed some truly wondrous sequences that should impress even the hardcore cinephile’s in the Academy (not that they weren’t inclined to appreciate his work already).
The big surprise, however, is none other than Harrison Ford. The star of the original film doesn’t return as the iconic Deckard until the last third of the movie (or close to it), but he gives a moving portrayal of a man who has been isolated and alone for years (and other things we won’t spoil). Ford was fantastic in “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” but you can argue he has not delivered a performance this impressive on screen since the little seen “K:19: The Widowmaker” 15 years ago. In fact, in context Ford’s work here is somewhat reminiscent of Sylvester Stallone in “Creed” (similar, not the same). WB started Stallone’s campaign slightly late and still managed to help him land a Supporting Actor nomination. They are clearly prepared to wage a campaign for Ford much earlier this time around which is a good sign (not that the “Indiana Jones” star is a big fan of the awards circuit).
As for Best Picture, that’s a big question mark at the moment. Box office will help and with a current opening tracking at $40-50 million its very likely “Blade Runner 2049” will be the profitable hit its predecessor took years to become on the home entertainment market. As noted, the love for Villeneuve in the Academy has grown over the years and all you really need is a passionate fanbase to rally around your film to make thecut. What is seemingly up in the air at this early juncture in the season is whether there are too many films with such support or significantly less than we suspect. So, we’re placing “Blade Runner 2049” on the fringe of a nomination in the latest Contender Countdown at no. 10, but do so knowing there haven’t been 10 nominees since the Academy changed the voting process in 2011.
So, yeah. For now at least.
Speaking of the Contender Countdown, here’s the latest edition just in time to take the debuts of “Last Flag Flying” and “Blade Runner” into consideration.
Sept. 29, 2017
1. “The Post”
Everybody knows. Everybody is waiting. Heard the teaser trailer is “electric.”
2. “The Shape of Water”
When people say they love it they are inclined to tilt their head like they are ready to hug their favorite pet. Really.
3. “Dunkirk”
If “Post” falters WB will have a window to strike and strike hard.
4. “Get Out”
Still think Universal should start sooner than later on this campaign. Just sayin’.
5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Seems like every day you run into someone new who really liked it. Safer than safe for Searchlight?
6. “Call Me By Your Name”
The passionate fanbase is still there even if the naysayers are restless.
7. “The Florida Project”
Needs a big opening weekend on the 6th in New York and LA (cough, go see it!).
8. “Darkest Hour”
New trailer smartly focused on the scope.
9. “Last Flag Flying”
Trade reviews were certainly not what Amazon was expecting. The others are mostly good. Should play better to Academy than initial notices. Just wait.
10. “Blade Runner 2049”
Expecting mostly critical love, but still unclear how it will play in the Best Picture race.
Almost there
(In alphabetical order)
“All the Money In the World”
A reason to make sure you attend AFI Fest this year.
“Battle of the Sexes”
Needs a box office ace down the center of the court.
“The Big Sick”
Still just on the fringe. If someone falters it’s ready to make a run for it.
“The Greatest Showman”
Is this opening night at AFI or is it “Murder on the Orient Express”? (We’re guessing the later).
“Lady Bird”
Have we told you how much we love Laurie Metcalf in this?
“Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project”
Heard it’s very good. Which is a good sign, right?
Current predictions (updated as of Sept. 29):
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay