With the fall festivals showing off their wares, Oscar season is firmly underway, with some films falling, and others — “La La Land” and “Jackie,” most notably, rising. But before we get into all of that with full gusto, we still have the minor matter of one of the biggest awards ceremonies in America to deal with, in the shape of this Sunday’s upcoming Emmys.
The biggest thing in the TV calendar, and traditionally marking the end of one ‘season’ and the beginning of a new one for the small screen (though that’s increasingly irrelevant in the days of year-round programming), this year’s winners will be announced in a Jimmy Kimmel-hosted ceremony on Sunday night, though below-the-line Creative Arts Emmys were already announced this past weekend.
“Game Of Thrones,” “Veep” and “The People Vs. OJ Simpson” have the most nominees in the various section, but as set in their ways as they can sometimes be, they’re also capable of surpising, especially with heavy-hitters like “Mad Men,” “Louie,” “Nurse Jackie” and “Parks And Recreation” off the air.
To get you prepped, we’ve made our predictions in the major categories below (i.e. the scripted ones: we unfortunately don’t care about reality shows to include here), and you can let us know your own in the comments. Check back late Sunday to find out who really wins.
Outstanding Writing For A Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special
Bob DeLaurentis – “Fargo” (Episode: “Loplop”)
Noah Hawley – “Fargo” (Episode: Palindrome”)
David Farr – “The Night Manager”
Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (Episode: “From The Ashes OF Tragedy”)
D.V. DeVincentis – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (“Marcia, Marcia, Marcia”)
Joe Robert Cole – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (Episode: “The Race Card”)
As in most categories when it comes to the ‘Limited Series’ section, this looks likely to be “The People Vs. O.J. Simpson” — the only question is which episode ends up with the prize. “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” and “The Race Card” were both remarkable episodes of TV, but we think it’s “From The Ashes Of Tragedy” that’ll win out, as a chance to recognize showrunners Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski, who did so much to make what could have been a tabloid-y disaster into a terrific drama. If it’s not one of the OJ Show episodes, “The Night Manager” could sneak in, but it’s a dark horse.
Outstanding Directing For A Limited Series, Movie Or Dramatic Special
Jay Roach – “All The Way”
Noah Hawley – ‘Fargo” (Episode: “Before The Law”)
Susanne Bier – “The Night Manager”
Ryan Murphy – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (episode: “From The Ashes Of Tragedy”)
Anthony Hemingway – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (Episode: “Manna From Heaven”)
John Singleton – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story” (Episode – “The Race Card”)
We’d argue that “The People Vs. OJ Simpson” was better when it wasn’t being directed by its headline producer Ryan Murphy — other filmmakers like the similarly nominated John Singleton (doing his best work in years) and Anthony Hemingway were more restrained and incisive about how they handled the material. Nevertheless, we think Murphy takes the Emmy here. If it’s not him, or one of his colleagues (Singleton might be the most likely, on name recognition alone), look for Susanne Bier to upset.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie
Kathy Bates – “American Horror Story: Hotel”
Olivia Colman – “The Night Manager”
Regina King – “American Crime”
Melissa Leo – “All The Way”
Sarah Paulson – “American Horror Story: Hotel”
Jean Smart – “Fargo”
With no “American Crime Story” actors nominated, and “American Horror Story” probably suffering a bit from the attention having shifted elsewhere, this category’s more up for grabs. Last year’s victor Regina King could repeat (she played a different character in the second season, equally well), but it feels likely to be Jean Smart’s year: the veteran character actress was stellar as the crime boss in “Fargo,” and she has three Emmys in the bag for her work on “Frasier” and “Samantha Who” already (TV Academy members like people already in the club, which is why Julia Louis-Dreyfus now lives in a house entirely made out of Emmys).
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie
Sterling K. Brown – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
Hugh Laurie – “The Night Manager”
Jesse Plemons – “Fargo”
David Schwimmer – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
John Travolta – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
Bokeem Woodbine – “Fargo”
Aaaaand back to “American Crime Story” winning things again. Traditionally, if in doubt in this section, you go for the bigger name, but that’s been changing in recent years, and despite David Schwimmer and John Travolta being nominated for the same show, this is likely to go to a relative unknown, Sterling K. Brown, who was phenomenal as Chris Darden on the OJ Show. If he doesn’t win, Travolta or Hugh Laurie for “The Night Manager” are likely to be the beneficiaries.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie
Bryan Cranston – “All The Way”
Benedict Cumberbatch – “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
Idris Elba – “Luther”
Cuba Gooding Jr – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
Tom Hiddleston – “The Night Manager”
Courtney B. Vance – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
In a starry category that could be an Oscar line-up, this will actually probably go to the actor who’s the least of a household name. Hiddleston is fine in “The Night Manager” but much less interesting than his co-stars, Cumberbatch and Elba are unlikely to take it for lesser entries of their show, and Gooding Jr wasn’t really a lead, despite playing the supporting character. That could see Bryan Cranston take the prize, as he did for the same role at the Tonys — it’s definitely a two-way race. But we give Courtney B. Vance’s Johnnie Cochrane the edge, unless voters are tired of ticking the ‘People Vs. OJ Simpson’ box.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Series Or Movie
Kirsten Dunst – “Fargo”
Felicity Huffman – “American Crime”
Audra McDonald – “Lady Day At Emerson’s Bar & Grill”
Sarah Paulson – “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
Lili Taylor – “American Crime”
Kerry Washington – “Confirmation”
She has six nominations since 2012 (and two just this year), but barring an enormous upset, 2016 will be the year that Sarah Paulson finally wins an Emmy. There’s some stiff competition here — in another year, Kerry Washington and Audra McDonald would both be strong contenders — but the greatness of Paulson’s turn as Marcia Clark (who she’s taking to the ceremony) is undeniable, and there’s a general feeling that she’s due. Congratulations, Ms. Paulson!
Outstanding Limited Series
“American Crime”
“Fargo”
“The Night Manager”
“The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story”
“Roots”
Congratulations, too, to the teams behind “American Crime,” “Fargo,” “The Night Manager” and “Roots” — you got to go to the Emmys, and even better, you get to sit through the main category without the butterflies of nervousness about whether or not you win. Because as you might have imagined by now, the winner is going to be “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story.”
Outstanding Television Movie
“All The Way”
“Confirmation”
“Luther”
“Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
“A Very Murray Christmas”
The winner here will also be “The People Vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story.” Kidding. But only because it isn’t nominated. This should be a two-way battle between the two HBO films, “All The Way” and “Confirmation,” with “Sherlock” as a potential dark horse. Ultimately, the Tony-winning pedigree of “All The Way” will probably see it win out, though it was less good than “Confirmation” was.