It’s that time of year again. That annual rite of passage where movie and TV fans hold their tongue for the 83 or so members of the venerable Hollywood Foreign Press Association (aka HFPA) to shower the global news marketplace with their Golden Globes nominations. The irony is that in 2017 the HFPA’s little January fete seems like comfort food compared to the constant craziness going on in the world in general (or at least in the White House).
Keeping that in mind, we’ve made our phone calls and gotten the scoop on what the HFPA likes and doesn’t like so far this year. As we’ll note, later on, there are some true unknowns with late arriving films such as “The Greatest Showman” and “All the Money in the World” potentially crashing some categories. At a minimum, this should give you a good overview of who will and won’t make it to the Beverly Hilton on Globes night.
“The Shape of Water” leads Critics Choice Award nominations
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Best Motion Picture – Drama
Likely
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
Possible
“Dunkirk”
“Darkest Hour”
“Molly’s Game”
“”Mudbound”
Wildcard
“All The Money in the World”
“Phantom Thread”
Lowdown:
The “likely” are pretty much locks. The question is what film gets the final slot. In theory, it’s “Dunkirk,” but the HFPA also loves “Darkest Hour” and “Molly’s Game.” Moreover, the HFPA saw a rough cut of “All the Money in the World” featuring new Christopher Plummer scenes on Monday. It’s also not clear what they think exactly of “Phantom Thread” so those two remain wildcards.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy
Likely
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
Borderline
“Battle of the Sexes”
“Beauty and the Beast”
“The Greatest Showman”
“I, Tonya”
“Victoria & Abdul”
Wildcards
“Downsizing”
“The Disaster Artist”
Lowdown:
“Big Sick,” “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” are in. The final two slots? Can we say competitive? Don’t be surprised if “Victoria & Abdul” shocks and the fifth slot goes to “Beauty” or “Showman.”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Likely
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Borderline
Jennifer Lawrence, “mother!”
Kate Winslet, “Wonder Wheel”
Wildcards
Gal Gadot, “Wonder Woman”
Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”
Lowdown:
The “likely” are pretty damn likely. Jennifer Lawrence is great for the room and the telecast, but the HFPA are not fans of the movie. Kate Winslet is potentially a reach at this point. Michelle Williams could be the surprise. Gal Gadot would make fans happy and give NBC something to promote.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Likely
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Borderline
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Stronger”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel”
Wildcard
Andrew Garfield, “Breathe”
Robert Pattinson, “Good Time”
Lowdown:
Is it Jake Gyllenhaal or Denzel Washington? Or does Robert Pattinson surprise? Or would they shock everyone with a deserving but forgotten Andrew Garfield?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Prediction
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”
Emma Watson, “Beauty and the Beast”
Lowdown:
In theory, this is your five. [Update: Previously we mistakenly noted that Salma Hayek is in this category, she is not. “Beatriz at Dinner” was moved to Drama.]
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Likely
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”
Borderline
Matt Damon, “Downsizing”
Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
Wildcards
Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
Chris Hemsworth, “Thor: Ragnarok”
Adam Sandler, “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)”
Lowdown:
Matt Damon and Hugh Jackman should round out this list, but a nomination for Chris Hemsworth would be inspired. And you can trust that Disney is applying the pressure.