We’ve made it halfway through October and, thankfully, awards season has so far avoided any major scandals. That’s not something you could say at this point in the season over the past two years (and, trust, we’re more than happy the #MeToo movement happened). Instead, we’re back to the old school Oscar scuttlebutt where a movie is anointed the Best Picture frontrunner, the (social) media get bored and everyone immediately tries to tear it down because, hey, why not? Oh, hi “A Star is Born,” how have the past two weeks been since opening?
Granted, the expected backlash began a day early than expected (I honestly assumed it would begin on Tuesday but everyone showed up in force the Monday after opening weekend), but this is what happens. Name a movie that won Best Picture over the past decade and you’re hard pressed to find one that wasn’t written off weeks later. “Birdman,” “Spotlight,” “Argo” and even last year’s “The Shape of Water” were victims of loud and presumptuous “Eh, is it really that good?” campaigns. So much so that you would have thought they were also-rans by New Year’s Eve. Knowing that yearly trend is hard to avoid, let’s all take a deep breath and realize Bradley Cooper’s critically acclaimed box office smash (88 on Metacritic, $104 million in 13 days) isn’t going anywhere any time soon and is still, likely, your Oscar frontrunner. Now, are there other players in the wings? Well, if it’s mid-October there absolutely are and one of them is just a month from opening.
At the surface Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” is, frankly, a headscratcher. It’s a very old Hollywood, broad drama about an NYC bouncer (Viggo Mortensen) who is hired to drive and provide security for a famous black classical pianist (Mahershala Ali) on a performance tour of the deep south. Set in the early 1960s, the “Green Book” in question refers to the guide they use to find friendly hotels and restaurants in segregated cities. There are few surprises in the story, but Mortensen has never (ever?) been funnier and Ali brings much-needed depth to his character that the screenplay doesn’t always provide. Reviews have been OK. It’s 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 21 reviews, but just 69 on Metacritic with eight reviews in so far (a surprisingly low number to be honest). That Metacritic score is near the cut off line for Best Picture nominees, but again, the sample size is so small it may cross 70 or a very safe 75 by opening day.
In a mild surprise, “Green Book” also won the People’s Choice Award at Toronto this year. That’s a good sign that it should earn a Best Picture nomination. Since 2008 0nly one People’s Choice Winner has not, the foreign language feature “Where Do We Go Now?” But the honor hasn’t always been a predictor either with winners “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The King’s Speech” and “12 Years A Slave” taking home Oscar gold. “Book” would also be the broadest studio winner since, arguably, “A Beautiful Mind” or “Forrest Gump.” It’s a total throwback which should give any serious pundit or consultant pause as it would be a complete outlier when compared to the rest of the winners this decade. And yet, wouldn’t “A Star is Born” be as well? Or is it closer to the pseudo prestige of “Argo”? Does that mean “Roma” and, cough, “The Favourite” have better shots to win than some of us are giving them? Possibly.
When it comes down to it, the final metric for most voters is the film that moved them the most. And that’s where “Green Book” could have an edge. It’s not a tearjerker per se, but its just as entertaining as “A Star is Born” and, whether justified or not, makes audiences feel good about the future when they leave the theater. And when you look out at the current field of potential winners, that’s something you simply cannot ignore.
Here’s your latest Contender Countdown…
October 19, 2018
1. “A Star is Born”
Weathering it all, but there will be work to do in December.
2. “Green Book”
Could it win as the film with the most second place votes on the preferential ballot?
3. “The Favourite”
Where are the negatives? Why aren’t we taking its chances to win more seriously?
4. “Black Panther”
If Disney can focus on its historical significance anything is possible. And we’re not kidding.
5. “Roma”
Will it get nominated? Yes. Can it win? It needs to be in theaters earlier than the middle of December, but, hey, that’s just my opinion.
6. “BlacKkKlansman”
Focus needs to get the drumbeat for Spike Lee to earn his first Best Director nomination. Some critics already had their say with the Gotham Awards nominations and it was a bit disconcerting.
7. “Vice”
We’re penciling this in based on our intel, but it could easily become just an acting play for Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Steve Carell.
8. “First Man”
Honestly, the box office results aren’t great (so far). That being said it could easily be this year’s “Dunkirk” with a Supporting Actress nomination for Claire Foy in the mix.
9. “If Beale Street Could Talk”
It should make the cut, but Annapurna is going to need strong limited release box office and major critical support (i.e., top 10 lists) to make sure the now 8,157 AMPAS members make it a viewing priority.
10. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
The opening day reviews are stellar and there’s still a chance it cracks the field, but it feels like the focus is now on more than deserving nominations for stars Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant.
11. “Widows”
Sad (and somewhat scary) times for those at “big” 20th Century Fox. Will the passion to push for a Best Picture campaign be there?
12. “The Front Runner”
Hugh Jackman and Jason Reitman need to work this one hard…possible, pt. 1.
13. “Mary Poppins Returns”
Conflicting intel, but…possible, pt. 2.
On the fringe
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
Embargoed from published pieces, but how about that Rami Malek?
“Crazy Rich Asians”
Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes? You bet.
“On the Basis of Sex”
We’ve consistently heard it’s a crowd-pleaser, but is that enough this year? And, yes, we know that can be said about “Green Book” as well.
“The Mule”
I mean, Clint Eastwood can never be counted out and that’s that.
Thoughts? Concerns? Will we have an Oscar telecast producer or – heaven forbid – host by next week? Share your thoughts below.
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film