TELLURIDE – Don’t tell me. You’ve seen a headline or two similar to this story’s over the past few days? Well, everyone must be reading the same tea leaves at this altitude because it’s simply the truth. Before we get into the awards season reactions some quick thoughts on this edition of the festival itself.
The 2016 Telluride Film Festival started off with thunderstorms and rain showers. By Sunday night though there was cool breeze and an almost quiet tranquility in town. The festival schedule truly mirrored the weather patterns outside the theaters spread out across town. Friday night was packed with more must-see premieres than I ever recall experiencing at this festival in particular. It was a bit like experiencing Toronto International Film Festival first weekend PTSD. There was simply too much to see and you wonder how you’re going to get it all done. By mid-day Saturday, however, all the major premieres were over and it was just repeat screenings for the rest of the four-day festival. We adore Telluride and this complaint might be too inside baseball, but we might be hoping someone from the festival takes note and returns to the previous rollout strategy next year.
Of course, all the big films debuting right away meant a ton of stars pretty much appearing all over town the entire weekend. Emma Stone, Miles Teller, Tom Hanks, Clint Eastwood, Casey Affleck, Jennifer Garner, Amy Adams, Isabelle Huppert and the cast of “Moonlight” all found ways to catch a film or two (or three) in-between their own respective Q&A’s, park panels and the increasing number of press interviews that happen on site. But, Telluride’s reputation as a filmmaker friendly festival without the messy red carpets continues to grow outside of those who have to attend to support their films. Even Rian Johnson took a break from editing “Star Wars: Episode IX” to trek to Colorado.
We’ve spent most of the past few days reviewing many of the world premieres (and there are a few more reviews to post), but the past eight years have proven that Telluride is simply the most important event during Oscar season. How did it all shake out? Let’s begin…
“La La Land”
Following a rapturous opening in Venice, the “La La Land” contingent trekked to Colorado to make the early patron and press screening Friday afternoon. The Lionsgate production won the crowd over even if there was no standing ovation (or two) as reported by one specific outlet. That’s not to diminish how well the film has played here, however. Most people genuinely adore the movie musica, but the reaction is a slight step down from how “Argo,” “12 Years A Slave,” “Gravity” or “The King’s Speech” were received (and again, slight). Make no mistake though Damien Chazelle’s passion project is your Best Picture frontrunner, and could absolutely go all the way. Chazelle is an easy pic for a Best Director nod and Emma Stone is the current frontrunner in the Best Actress category for all performances screened so far. Ryan Gosling has an excellent shot at a Best Actor nomination and below the line categories such as Original Score, Best Original Song, Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design and Sound (take your pick or both) are very likely. The only category I would hesitate on is Original Screenplay. The script is at times the weakest part of the picture and it’s just hard to see the Writer’s Branch embracing it. Especially since they are usually adverse to musical scripts earning nominations in the first place. The last original musical to earn an Original Screenplay nomination was “All That Jazz” in 1980. The last movie musical to earn an Adapted Screenplay nomination was “Chicago” which also went on to win Best Picture in 2003. Recent Best Picture nominated musicals that didn’t earn writing nods are “Moulin Rouge!” and “Les Miserables.” Can “La La” buck the trend? We’re gonna find out. And get ready for another round of love in Toronto next week. In fact, don’t be surprised if “La La” finds a way to take home the coveted Audience Award there.
READ MORE: ‘La La Land’ Starring Emma Stone & Ryan Gosling Is An Absolute Triumph [Venice Review]
“Sully”
Clint Eastwood’s take on Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger’s emergency landing of a US Airways flight in the Hudson river was one of the most popular films of the festival. It was partially because of the combined star power of first timers Eastwood and Hanks at every screening, but also because the movie simply plays and if it plays here it’s going to play to a larger base of the Academy as well. The question is with an imminent Sept. 9th release date can Warner Bros. keep the fire going for Best Picture and Best Actor nods with a majority of the season ahead of us? Needless to say, if “Sully” does strong at the box office it could be the populist choice for voters like “The Martian” was last year. Hanks could get a Best Actor nod, but he may be a fringe player at this point.
“Moonlight”
Having had the privilege to see Barry Jenkins’ masterpiece before Telluride I was slightly hesitant about how it might play at the festival. As expected critics have been euphoric over it and get ready for a second wave at TIFF and a third at NYFF over the next few weeks. The issue was would it play to the liberal and progressive, but not that progressive Telluride faithful? Numerous standing ovations at one screening after another appear to indicate that it did. Moreover, speak to any producer, actor or filmmaker here for other films and it was often on the top of their lists of other movies they wanted to see. That is an especially good sign for A24 who are smartly keeping Oscar expectations low for now even if Jenkins and Tarell McCraney (who received story credit) are, at worst, likely Original Screenplay nominees. In a perfect world Jenkins will earn a Best Director nod, but that always-competitive category won’t really shake out its contenders until at least the end of November. The movie has a stellar ensemble (are you listening yet SAG?), but there really is no lead performance. Naomie Harris has a good shot at Best Supporting Actress, but the question is who does A24 push for Best Supporting Actor? Mahershala Ali is having a moment right now and may end up carrying the torch for the rest of the cast. I also think André Holland is superb and key to the film’s third act, but the also worthy Trevante Rhodes may end up becoming the other big push. As for a potential Best Picture nomination, we’ll know more after it plays at AMPAS events in Los Angeles (fingers crossed).
“Manchester By The Sea”
We knew what we knew about “Manchester” in Sundance and nothing has changed. Casey Affleck is a major contender for a Best Actor nod, Michelle Williams a Supporting Actress nomination and a Best Picture play is still in the cards. Kenneth Lonergan, who at a minimum is looking at an Original Screenplay nod, could also find himself getting some recognition from the Director’s branch. Roadside and Amazon‘s next priority? Getting screeners out way before the Thanksgiving break and trying to snag as many critics’ group wins as possible.
“Arrival”
Denis Villeneuve’s latest endeavor earned stellar reviews at Venice and that put expectations very high at Telluride, perhaps too high. Amy Adams is fantastic and a contender in what will be an insanely competitive Best Actress field. Bradford Young, who inexplicably still has not earned a Best Cinematography nomination, could get his first Oscar recognition this time around. Composer Jóhann Jóhannsson may once again find himself in the Original Score race and a Visual Effects nod isn’t out of the question. The picture may just be too confusing for some (I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard festival goers ask, “What did the aliens want again?”) to be anything but an “Interstellar” play. Don’t feel for bad for Paramount, however. They have at least four other Best Picture contenders ready to fight for a nomination.
“Bleed For This”
Do we really need another boxing movie in 2016? That’s debatable, but it shouldn’t discredit the fact that Ben Younger’s “Bleed for This” is a very good flick. The true story of Vinny Pazienza’s miraculous boxing comeback after he broke his neck in a freak car accident, “Bleed” avoids many of the genre’s clichés thanks to Younger’s direction and some fine overall performances. Miles Teller may not look much like the real Pazienza (he’s also a good three inches taller than him), but he convinces you he’s a boxer and an Italian one at that. More notable is the standout work from Aaron Eckhart and Ciarán Hinds. Is it an awards movie? That’s unclear. Eckhart or Hinds could come to play in the Best Supporting actor race, but only the later truly has that key “Oscar scene” that could get him out of the pack.
“Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer”
A bit of surprise, this Sony Classics release is a peculiar player this season. Joseph Cedar’s original drama centers on Norman Oppenheimer (Richard Gere), a small time “consultant” who miraculously befriends the future Prime Minister of Israel (Lior Ashkenazi) and finds himself with more real influence and connections than he knows what to do with. Cedar’s script is very impressive for the most part and could absolutely be an Original Screenplay nominee. Gere is also quite good, but a Best Actor player? Considering how many times he’s been overlooked in the past we’re not so sure. The rest of the ensemble includes Michael Sheen, Steve Buscemi, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Hank Azaria and Dan Stevens who are all also quite good. That being said, any of them getting supporting actor or actress buzz would be completely unexpected at this point. Outside of its screenplay, “Norman” is most likely just an Indie Spirits contender.
The Other Players
No film “lost” this year, but the fantastic “Toni Erdmann” does have a length problem. Many people told me they were skipping the Cannes favorite because of its 2 hour and 42 min run time and thought they would catch it down the road (an always dangerous reaction). At a festival like Telluride where many people really only have 3 full days to see movies the perception was it’s a lot of time to commit to one picture. Sony Classics is going to need to send the screener out for this one very, very early even if it’s just a Foreign Language play. The Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds doc “Bright Lights” is a moving crowd pleaser that has a shot at a Best Documentary nomination as does Werner Herzog’s “Into the Inferno.”
What do you think of this year’s Telluride breakouts? Share your thoughts below.
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