The last thing I probably want to do is admit how long I’ve been filing this particular column and while I’ve missed a few years here and there this is actually the third outlet I’ve done it for. Making predictions for the Oscars in August can be very dumb in some respects, but sometimes truths are revealed months ahead of time. Predicting “Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” were going to be Best Picture nominees in August were spot on (cough, most other pundits didn’t). Then again predicting “Tree of Life” wasn’t a Best Picture nominee or Leonardo DiCaprio wouldn’t get a nod for “Inception“? Eh, it’s August, right? Who knew that early?
But, yes, Oscar is about to rear its shiny gold head again. So, before we head to Telluride and Toronto to get a real gauge of the season ahead it can’t hurt our knowledge and insight to the test. Can it?
“Dunkirk” is the only Best Picture nominee lock…right now
Anyone who tells you Christopher Nolan’s WWII thriller is going to win Best Picture in August probably doesn’t know the awards season game very well. “Dunkirk” is probably the easiest lock for a Best Picture nomination, but that’s it at the moment. The only other categories that seem likely bets are Production Design, Cinematography, Editing and and Sound Editing and/or Sound Mixing. Best Director and Best Screenplay are absolutely in the mix and there is an outside shot Mark Rylance could sneak in Best Supporting Actor. But, again, Best Picture nod? Book it.
The Foreign Language Film race is wide open
At this time last year “Toni Erdmann,” “The Salesman” and “Elle” were seen as likely bets for FLF nods even if the latter eventually ended up earning a historic snub. This time around things are much more up in the air. Leading the way is Sweden’s Palme d’Or winner “The Square” (with Emmy favorite Elisabeth Moss in a supporting role, no less), France’s “120 Beats Per Minute” (assuming it’s the entry), Chile’s “A Fantastic Woman” (SPC’s hope), Germany’s “In the Fade” (with a Best Actress worthy turn from Diane Kruger) and Norway’s “Thelma” (from the director of “Oslo” and “Louder than Bombs”). Other potential players include Russia’s “Loveless” (which could be shut out as the nation’s nominee for “Polina” instead), Hungary’s “On Body and Soul,” Switzerland’s “The Divine Order,” Lebanon’s “The Insult,” Belgium’s “The Racer and the Jailbird” (from the director of “Bullhead”) and, potentially, Brazil’s “Just Like Our Parents” (unclear it will be the nation’s submission yet). Additionally, I’ve seen Bosnia Herezegovina’s “Men Don’t Cry” and it would be shocking if it made the round of eight, but we’ve got a long way to go and it’s anyone’s game (including a surprise picture not even on anyone’s radar yet) so anything is possible.
Get ready, Ridley Scott and Clint Eastwood are arriving for the home stretch
These filmmaking legends may be 79 and 87 respectively, but they are more prolific than ever. Scott is following up the dreadful “Alien: Covenant” with “All the Money in the World” starring Mark Wahlberg, Kevin Spacey, Michelle Williams and Timothy Hutton. Eastwood returns with “The 15:17 to Paris” which reportedly stars the real life off duty soldiers who stopped a terrorist attack on a French train last year and features more familiar faces such as Judy Greer, Jenna Fisher, Thomas Lennon, Tony Hale and – no joke – Jaleel White. We’re slightly skeptical of Eastwood’s new drama considering it just wrapped shooting and the aforementioned non-professional actors, but Scott’s take on the infamous and bizarre John Paul Getty III kidnapping in 1973 seems like it could be serious Oscar material. Sony Pictures thinks so as well giving it a prime Dec. 8 release date. In either case, expect either Eastwood or Scott to make some sort of impact on this year’s Oscar race which is not something anyone thought four months ago.
Keala Settle from “The Greatest Showman” may be the surprise in Best Supporting Actress
She’s not a household name to most moviegoers, but Settle has a stellar reputation on Broadway where she’s already a Tony Award nominee and has shined in musicals such as “Hands on a Hardbody” and “Waitress.” According to producer and star Hugh Jackman, Settle won the role of the Bearded Lady over more well known actresses who campaigned for the part and based on her vocals in an extended clip at CinemaCon she’s absolutely a contender in the Best Supporting Actress category. And did we mention how Jackman can’t stop raving about her?