BEST EDITING
Matthew Hannam, “Swiss Army Man”
Jennifer Lame, “Manchester by the Sea”
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders, “Moonlight”
Jake Roberts, “Hell or High Water”
Sebastián Sepúlveda, “Jackie”
Who Will Win: Joi McMillion, Nate Sanders
Who Should Win: Sebastián Sepúlveda
Upset: Jake Roberts or Jennifer Lane
Ponder: This is another very tough category to call. Most members have seen at least four of these films and while the “Moonlight” duo should have the upper hand it wouldn’t be surprising to hear the editors of “Jackie,” “Hell or High Water” or “Manchester” announced as the winner.
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Sasha Lane, “American Honey”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Who Will Win: Isabelle Huppert
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman
Upset: Natalie Portman
Ponder: Huppert has a Golden Globe and the publicity momentum behind her (and luckily no competition from Emma Stone). More voters have seen “Jackie,” however, which could finally find the early frontrunner, Portman, in the winner’s circle this season.
BEST MALE LEAD
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
David Harewood, “Free In Deed”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Jesse Plemons, “Other People”
Tim Roth, “Chronic”
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Upset: Viggo Mortensen
Ponder: This is probably the biggest lock of the night. Viggo could surprise, but Affleck should easily snag his first Spirit.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Edwina Findley, “Free In Deed”
Paulina Garcia, “Little Men”
Lily Gladstone, “Certain Women”
Riley Keogh, “American Honey”
Molly Shannon, “Other People”
Who Will Win: Molly Shannon
Who Should Win: Molly Shannon
Upset: Lily Gladstone
Ponder: Expect Shannon to win here (most recognizable, most buzz), but any of the other four could surprise.
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Ralph Fiennes, “A Bigger Splash”
Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Shia LaBeouf, “American Honey”
Craig Robinson, “Morris from America”
Who Will Win: Ben Foster
Who Should Win: Ralph Fiennes
Upset: Lucas Hedges
Ponder: Hedges shouldn’t really be categorized as an upset, but Foster’s indie cred and the opportunity to reward “Hell” might be enough for the veteran. (Nothing would make me happier than for Fiennes to win, however).
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)
“Moonlight”
Director: Barry Jenkins
Casting Director: Yesi Ramirez
Ensemble Cast: Mahershala Ali, Patrick Decile, Naomie Harris, Alex Hibbert, André Holland, Jharrel Jerome, Janelle Monáe, Jaden Piner, Trevante Rhodes, Ashton Sanders
BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
“13th”
Director/Producer: Ava DuVernay, Producers: Spencer Averick, Howard Barish
“Cameraperson”
Director/Producer: Kirsten Johnson, Producer: Marilyn Ness
“I Am Not Your Negro”
Director/Producer: Raoul Peck, Producers: Rémi Grellety, Hérbert Peck
“O.J.: Made in America”
Director/Producer: Ezra Edelman, Producers: Nina Krstic, Tamara Rosenberg, Caroline Waterlow
“Sonita”
Director: Rokhsareh Ghaem Magihami Producer: Gerd Haag
“Under the Sun”
Director: Vitaly Mansky Producer: Natalya Manskaya
Who Will Win: “O.J.: Made in America”
Who Should Win: “I Am Not Your Negro”
Upset: “13th” or “I Am Not Your Negro”
Ponder: My gut is to really go with “13th” here, but I think most voters haven’t seen a majority of the nominees. That would mean they vote for the contender that has the most buzz and previous wins which would be “O.J.” That being said, a lot of people have seen “13th “on Netflix and “I Am Not Your Negro” is a minor art house hit. An upset is absolutely possible here.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
“Aquarius”
(Brazil)
Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Chevalier”
(Greece)
Director: Athina Tsangari
“My Golden Days”
(France)
Director: Arnaud Desplechin
“Toni Erdmann” – WINNER
(Germany and Romania)
Director: Maren Ade
“Under the Shadow”
(Iran and U.K.)
Director: Babak Anvari
Who Will Win: “Toni Erdmann”
Who Should Win: “Toni Erdmann”
Upset: “Aquarius”
Ponder: Sadly, “Erdmann” hasn’t even cracked $1 million at the U.S. box office yet, but the attention it’s received and the fact it’s the only Oscar nominee or Foreign Language Film song these five should push it through.
Film Independent previously announced that Jordana Mollick (“Hello My Name is Doris”) was awarded the Piaget Producers Award, “The Fits” director Anna Rose Holmer received the Someone to Watch Award and “Hooligan Sparrow” helmer Nanfu Wang earned the Truer Than Fiction award.
The 2017 Independent Spirit Awards will be handed out this Saturday, Feb. 25 at 2:00 PM PST live on IFC. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.