Premature Oscar Predictions: 2018 Best Picture & Best Director Nominees - Page 2 of 3

Call Me By Your Name

“Call Me By Your Name”
Perhaps the most critically adored festival favorite of 2017 so far, Luca Guadagnino’s adaptation of André Aciman’s novel about the affair between a young American boy in Italy (Timothée Chalamet) and an older man (Armie Hammer) won raves at Sundance, and then even greater raves, arguably, at Berlin. Reviews like that normally suggest a safe run to awards season, and “Moonlight”’s triumph certainly could be seen to open the door further to LGBT films like this, but Guadagnino’s film might have a tougher fight ahead. Whereas “Moonlight” was relatively chaste when it came to actual sex, “Call Me By Your Name” is significantly more explicit (there’s a scene where a peach gets put to unusual use that might have older Academy members reaching for the eject button), and as we saw in the two exclusively white years that followed “12 Years A Slave,” sometimes there’s a sense that having acknowledged minorities, they can then safely ignore them again for a while. Still, the Academy is shifting (the more international members who helped to bring “Moonlight” its win will undoubtedly appreciate Guadagnino’s film), and the quality of the film is strong, so this still stands a good chance if Sony Pictures Classics give it the right push.

Mudbound“Mudbound”
From the minute that Dee Rees’ “Mudbound” premiered at Sundance in January, the Oscar buzz began. Indeed, the film’s producers reportedly made a major awards push part of the conditions for the sale, and the film, a racially charged post-WW2 melodrama, based on Hillary Jordan’s novel and starring Carey Mulligan, Jason Mitchell, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Clarke, Mary J. Blige and Jonathan Banks, certainly seems like it might be up the Academy’s street. But when it was announced that Netflix had won the bidding war, paying a whopping $12.5 million for it, more than one awards pundit, ours included, suggested that the film’s awards chances might be dead. As of Sunday, Netflix now have an Oscar thanks to Documentary Short “The White Helmets,” and Amazon have thrown off streaming suspicions, winning prizes for “Manchester By The Sea” and “The Salesman,” but “Mudbound” should be an interesting test case. Whereas no one sees doc shorts in theaters anyway, and Amazon stick mostly to traditional theatrical windows, Netflix are committed to all their movies bowing day-and-date. And the question is if voters will be ready to accept that when it comes to a major nominee. We’re sure that they’ll push it hard, but it’ll be fascinating to see to what extent the Academy embrace it.

logan-wolverine-hugh-jackman“The Greatest Showman”
With “La La Land” thwarted at the last minute, it remains 66 years since a movie musical not based on a Broadway show won the top prize at the Oscars (“An American In Paris” was the last, though even that was based on pre-existing compositions). Could Hugh Jackman vehicle “The Greatest Showman” be the one to break the duck? Produced by Jackman, who spent years developing the project, it’s a biopic of circus maestro P.T. Barnum (of Barnum & Bailey fame), penned by writers including “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Star Wars” scribe Michael Arndt and Bill Condon (who has his own movie musical hitting this year with “Beauty And The Beast”), while the songs come from Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, who penned current Broadway hit “Dear Evan Hansen” and wrote the lyrics for “La La Land” (winning Best Original Song at the Oscars for “City Of Stars” this weekend). Jackman’s joined by Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, Michelle Williams,The Get Down” star Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and, in quite a coup, 81-year-old “Carmen Jones” star Diahann Carroll (one to watch in Supporting Actress, we’d wager). The big question mark is director Michael Gracey, a commercial and music-video director making his feature debut here. Rob Marshall being a first-timer didn’t hurt “Chicago” back in the day, but this’ll still be a tough task for Gracey to pull off.

there will be blood daniel day lewis

Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
Though he’s as respected a filmmaker as exists in the world right now, Paul Thomas Anderson only has a single Best Picture and Best Director nomination apiece to his name, both for “There Will Be Blood.” In advance, much was expected of both “The Master” and “Inherent Vice,” but despite a brace of acting nominations for the former, it didn’t take hold in the Best Picture category. Will his latest, which reunites him with Daniel Day-Lewis in a story set in the fashion world in Europe in the 1950s, return him to awards consideration? On the one hand, it’s rare that a Day-Lewis film doesn’t get awards attention, and this is the kind of period drama, in setting at least, that should turn voter heads (costume design seems like a lock, at least). But “The Master” also seemed like it should have been up their streets, but Anderson’s never really been entirely Academy-friendly, and has actually got more experimental over time. So little is known about the film at this point that it’s hard to tell how it goes (obviously), but this clearly shouldn’t be dismissed, especially after a year where a film as formally bold as “Moonlight” has been recognized.

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“Wonderstruck”
Despite a brace of nominations, “Carol” sadly failed to pick up a Best Picture nod (indeed, it’s one of the most nominated films ever to miss out on the big prize, at least in recent years). Could Todd Haynes’ next film be the one to make up for it? “Wonderstruck” has a number of bona-fides behind it other than just Haynes: it’s also based on a book by “Hugo” author Brian Selznick, it’s to some extent a movie about movies (it partly involves a young deaf girl’s quest to meet her favorite silent film star, with that section reportedly told as a silent film), it looks to jerk some tears, and it features two much-lauded actresses in Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams. Haynes has traditionally been a little more thoughtful, a little more queer, than the kind of thing that usually ticks Academy boxes, but this on paper looks to be his most accessible work yet, and Amazon are sure to give it a big push after a likely Cannes premiere. But maybe the Academy will end up feeling they did the silent movie thing a few years back with “The Artist”?

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If They’re Ready In Time

“Widows”
After tackling some pretty heavy subjects with his earlier films — the Irish Troubles, sex addiction, slavery — Steve McQueen looks to be letting his hair down a little with his fourth movie “Widows,” a remake of a reasonably trashy ’80s British miniseries, adapted here by “Gone Girl” scribe Gillian Flynn, about the wives of three armed robbers who team up to finish their late husband’s last jobs. But while it might nominally be a crime drama, we’re sure McQueen isn’t treating it completely as a holiday, with issues of gender and race likely to figure in heavily, and his cast — freshly minted Oscar winner Viola Davis, the Grammy and Tony-lauded Cynthia Erivo, Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, André Holland and Daniel Kaluuya — is absolutely A-grade. Even assuming that it’s elevated crime fare that might appeal to the Academy rather than a strictly commercial play (and even something like “The Town” couldn’t crack Best Picture), this still might be a bit of a stretch — McQueen is casting up, but there’s no firm word on when filming begins, so Cannes 2018 might be a safer bet for its release (he was in post for a full year on “12 Years A Slave”), especially with the film without a distributor at the minute.

Moonlight“Triple Frontier”
Another movie that seems to be casting up but would face a bit of a sprint to get to the finish line if it really is shooting soon, “Triple Frontier” is a one-time Kathryn Bigelow project (still working from a script co-written by Mark Boal), a multi-stranded actioner set in the notorious point where the borders of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil meet. Now revived with “Margin Call” director J.C. Chandor, it’s gearing up to shoot again with Channing Tatum, Tom Hardy and Oscar-winner Mahershala Ali all signed up. It could be a sort of muscular “Traffic”/“Syriana”-type thriller, and Chandor’s been overdue for a big Oscar break for a while, but what’s likely to be a tough, complicated international shoot might make it unlikely to make the end of the year even if it does start filming imminently. And even then, this kind of thing is sometimes dismissed as strictly commercial unless a Bigelow or a Clint Eastwood is at the helm. Still, keep half an eye on it; nothing’s impossible.

adam-mckay-step-brothersUntitled Dick Cheney Biopic
Brad Pitt’s production company Plan B have an enviable Oscar track record: since the turn of the decade, they’ve had six Best Picture nominees and two winners with “The Tree Of Life,” “Moneyball,” “12 Years A Slave,” “Selma,” “The Big Short” and “Moonlight.” With Pitt vehicle “War Machine” on Netflix having some troubling buzz, and Bong Joon-Ho’s “Okja” probably not Academy fare, their best bet to continue their streak would appear to be this biopic of former Vice President Dick Cheney announced towards the end of last year by Paramount and “Big Short” helmer Adam McKay. McKay firmly cracked the Academy race with that film, and this is the kind of subject that would seem primed to make waves in awards season, but the only trouble is that we’re not entirely sure it’s still happening. Filming was meant to happen in the spring for a fourth-quarter release, but word’s been whisper-quiet on it since the initial announcement. It could be that McKay’s been quietly working away (he did drop that surprise Funny Or Die Trump biopic with Johnny Depp without anyone knowing), but it could be that casting issues, or the studio shift at Paramount, have caused some issues. We should know in the next few weeks — if it comes together (and McKay finished “The Big Short” super fast), it could definitely be a player.

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Honorable mentions: Of course, if history holds, most of the nominees will end up not being on the list above, so we should consider a few other possibilities. One of the more obvious is “The Current War,” with Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon leading a starry cast telling the story of the battle to patent electricity. The Weinstein Company are backing, but the proof will be in the pudding. There’s also Joe Wright’s “The Darkest Hour” with Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill (there’s also “Churchill” with Brian Cox coming this year in a Capote-style showdown), though that could be a Best Actor push more than anything; and Brie Larson reuniting with her “Short Term 12” director, Destin Daniel Cretton, for “The Glass Castle.” Sofia Coppola could be back in the mix if “The Beguiled” is as good as its trailer, while Andrew Haigh could step up with coming-of-ager “Lean On Pete,” potentially one of A24’s big hopes for the year.

Little Miss Sunshine” helmers Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris team with Best Actress winner Emma Stone and Steve Carell for tennis movie “Battle Of The Sexes;” while Aaron Sorkin directs for the first time with “Molly’s Game,” starring Jessica Chastain and Idris Elba. George Clooney is behind the director’s chair again for starry Coens-scripted noir “Suburbicon,” while Guillermo Del Toro could finally crack the race with period merman romance “The Shape Of Water,” and we’d keep an eye on the topical “The Death Of Stalin” from Armando Iannucci. Previous nominees Michael Haneke and Alfonso Cuarón have new movies, as does Darren Aronofsky with the Jennifer Lawrence-starring “Mother!,” a film we might have included were it not for the exclamation mark in the title.

mercy

And don’t rule out Colin Firth in James Marsh’s yachting drama “The Mercy,” Woody Allen’s “Wonder Wheel,” Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird,” David Gordon Green’s “Stronger” with Casey Affleck, Jason Reitman’s “Tully” with Charlize Theron and a Diablo Cody script, James Ponsoldt’s “The Circle,” blockbuster threequel “War For The Planet Of The Apes,” David Lowery’s Robert Redford-starring “The Old Man And The Gun” if it’s done in time, Pixar’s “Coco,” Lynne Ramsay’s “You Were Never Really Here,Kenneth Branagh’s starry “Murder On The Orient Express,” PTSD drama “Thank You For Your Service,” Stephen Frears’ “Victoria And Abdul, Ian McEwan adaptation “On Chesil Beach” with Saoirse Ronan, José Padilha’s ’70s hijacking drama “Entebbe,” Liam Neeson as Deep Throat (the Watergate one, not Linda Lovelace, sadly) in “Felt,” Scott Cooper’s Western “Hostiles,” Richard Linklater’s “The Last Detail” sequel “Last Flag Flying,” Susannah White’s “Woman Walks Ahead” with Jessica Chastain, the “Intouchables” remake with Bryan Cranston and a few dozen more.

Head over to the next page were we dive into the directors….