Is This The Year The Golden Globes Actually Influence The Oscar Nominations?

BEVERLY HILLS — The Beverly Hilton was truly rocking last night. Unlike a year ago when many of the post-show party attendees spent hours in a nearby parking garage trying to get to the event due to increased security restrictions, the drama took place during the show itself, not after. And while many of the “La La Land” and “Moonlight” contingents were hard to find you could walk into the Warner Bros./InStyle party and see Nick Jonas catching a smoke or LA Clippers center DeAndre Jordan soaking up the NBA fan love like Kobe Bryant used to do back in the day.* Or you might catch Diego Luna with a backpack casually on over his tuxedo jacket walking through the Hilton lobby, Isabelle Huppert taking photos with well wishers on the red carpet, Winona Ryder and the “Stranger Things” cast chilling at the packed Netflix/The Weinstein Company shindig, Pablo Larrain and Natalie Portman relaxing as the “Atlanta” team celebrated on the other side of the Fox party or Questlove DJing past midnight at an Amazon Studios fete that nobody wanted to leave.

*A few years ago Bryant played a 6:30 PM game that occurred during the broadcast and still found time to change and get from downtown LA to the Hilton in time for the parties.

Between the drinks, food (the KFC at Netflix/TWC was heaven) and repetitive congratulations there were three topics that kept getting brought up again and again no matter what party you were at.

Obviously, the first was Meryl Streep’s incredible speech that people were still buzzing about late into the night. The second was “La La Land”’s domination. No disrespect to the movie itself, but there were some sour grapes among its rivals that it took home so many honors (especially screenplay).  The HFPA usually spreads the wealth and they barely did so this year. The third was Isabelle Huppert’s surprise win for Best Actress in a Drama. This pundit actually noted earlier in the day she might upset and that was based on some intel I’d heard at Paramount Pictures Globes party the night before. Still, it was a jaw-dropping win (Huppert herself clearly didn’t expect it) and may have ramifications on the Oscar nominations later this month. That in and of itself is even more shocking than Huppert taking the honor because it points to the fact that for the first time in decades the Golden Globes may seriously influence the Academy Awards.

This year is an outlier for the Globes and the Oscars. Usually, Academy members have already submitted their ballots for the Oscar nominations before the Globes occur. The Globe wins themselves are usually just another PR opportunity along with the SAG Awards, BAFTA Awards, PGA Awards, etc. before members vote for the actual winners. Moreover, with the Globes traditionally so early in that long line of awards shows its impact was considered minor at best. More than anything a Globes win has always been viewed more as a marketing or box office opportunity than a real Oscar booster. The 2017 awards season is significantly different. For the first time in over a decade the Globes were announced five full days before ballots were due, right at the height of voting. And you’re deluding yourself if you believe Academy members aren’t paying attention.

Obviously, The Academy is not the HFPA. The tastes of almost 6,000 industry professionals do not always equate to 90 or so international journalists whose primary goal is celebrity access for their features. But, from a publicity perspective because of the timing this year it may impact more than expected (or we may discover not). So, let’s play a little conjecture filled exercise shall we? Could the Globe results impact the following?

Isabelle Huppert as a Best Actress nominee
Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”) and Amy Adams (“Arrival”) are absolutely in. The question is whether Huppert, who has never been nominated, makes a campaign comeback and knocks out Annette Bening (“20th Century Women”), Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) or the not so forgotten Ruth Negga (“Loving”). For weeks the buzz has been that most Academy members did not want to watch “Elle” because of its initial rape scene and that’s one reason why the film didn’t make the Foreign Language Film shortlist (although there was more at play than just that issue). And the fact Huppert didn’t earn a SAG nod made the chances seem slim she’d persevere with Oscar. Now, could Huppert make the cut by members of the acting branch who haven’t actually seen the movie voting for her just to reward her incredible body of work? Will the Globe win and her heartfelt speech sneak her in?

Portman’s frontrunner status for Best Actress in jeopardy
The BAFTAs and PGA nominations will give a broader hint of industry and Academy support, but Portman is really going to need a SAG win to gain momentum back for Oscar night. Especially with all the love “La La Land” got from the Globes. Speaking of which…

“La La Land” dominating the Oscars
We already knew Damien Chazelle’s movie musical would take Best Picture, Best Original Song and Best Score. Many are rooting for “Moonlight’s” Barry Jenkins to take Best Director and, again, Portman is still expected to take Best Actress. Many of the other below the line categories such as Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costumes and Best Sound Mixing were expected to be split among a number of different films including “Rogue One,” “Fantastic Beasts,” “Jackie” and even “Moonlight.” That may be fool’s gold. Here’s something to look for. Over the 35 years it’s been consistently handed out, the only “musical” to ever be nominated in Sound Editing was the animated “Aladdin.” If “La La Land” earns a nod in that category it’s a major red flag The Academy is ready to reward it more than any other movie since “Slumdog Millionaire” won eight statues in 2009 or when “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” took 11 Oscars 12 years ago.

Casey Affleck vs. Denzel Washington for Best Actor
Frankly, Affleck needed to win at the Globes and he got it. While his speech wasn’t fantastic (the Denzel bit came off as forced) this sets the “Manchester by the Sea” star up perfectly for a potential SAG Award win. Shockingly, Washington has actually never won a SAG Award (he had four nods before “Fences”) and either the membership will continue that streak or make this a true marathon by upending Affleck. If Affleck wins SAG it continues the perceived “winning” momentum he’s achieved by taking so many critics groups awards. A BAFTA win would be the icing on the cake. Paramount — and the rest of Hollywood – knows Viola Davis winning Best Supporting Actress is a lock so look for them to push Denzel joining the three-time winners club hard.

Beyond the Globes, this week will be a turning point in the season with the BAFTA nominations later tonight (or this morning depending on where you live in the world), the PGA nominations tomorrow morning and the DGA nods on Thursday, Jan. 12. Will the Globes have a true impact? We probably won’t know until the Academy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24 but if there is any year for the HFPA to influence big brother it’s this one.

Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography 
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing