We are not exaggerating when we suggest the race for a Best Actress and, only to a minusculely lesser degree, a Supporting Actress nomination is at historically competitive levels. The most recent comparison we can give is the race for the 2015 Best Actor Oscar. That year saw “Nightcrawler’s” Jake Gyllenhaal, “Interstellar’s” Matthew McConaughey, “The Grand Budapest Hotel’s” Ralph Fiennes, and “Selma’s” David Oyelowo each get snubbed for performances that could easily win any other year. The Best Actress race saw something similar in 2017 when “20th Century Women’s” Annette Bening, “Arrival’s” Amy Adams, and “Hidden Figures'” Taraji P. Henson were unable to make the field. This year’s races make those snubs seem like a slap fest between five-year-olds in a playground sandbox.
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At this date, there is only one true lock for a Best Actress nomination, Mikey Madison. Beyond the “Anora” breakout, there are multiple scenarios where ten other contenders fill the other four slots or get swept aside. In the Supporting Actress race, no one is safe. At least 12 contenders are fighting for those five slots. This may all seem like awards season hyperbole, but trust our decades of experience, it isn’t. Complicating matters is the Zoe Saldana “is she or isn’t she” in Lead or Supporting for “Emilia Perez” conversation that may turn out to be a red herring when nominations are revealed or may blow up both categories (to a degree). It’s impossible to ignore this happening when it’s actively being talked about by Academy members without provocation.
Whatever the outcomes, if you are an awards consultant, publicist, or studio/distribution executive, there will be no easy answers. Moreover, if there is any solace, both races are so utterly wide open just for a nod that you almost can’t stress about it. The SAG Awards and BAFTA Awards will give some guidance (maybe), but more people will be on edge than usual during the wee hours of January 17.
Keeping all that in mind, let’s give some quick takes on the long list of contenders for both races. [Updated Nov. 27]
BEST ACTRESS
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
The only lock. Whether she’s the frontrunner to win is another matter entirely.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
In theory, should be a given. Members still have to watch the movie though. The fact it’s directed by Mike Leigh isn’t an enticing prospect for some (spoiler: it’s one of his best and made my Top 10 list so maybe make sure you see it).
Karla Sofia Gascon, “Emilia Perez”
Whatever policy changes the next administration announces over the next month and a half will only help her cause. Horrifying, but true.
Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”
Acting Branch members keep telling yourself, “She’s supporting.”
Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
A potential consensus critics group’s pick (maybe). Box office won’t hurt!
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
She’s working it, she’s campaigning. She’s still borderline because the movie isn’t wow-ing enough people. And, when it’s this close, the movie matters.
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
The industry and critical sentiment for the performance is there. We’re not sure enough of her peers can get through watching the film, however. The anecdotes we’ve heard are slightly heartbreaking for fans. Even in a weak year, a snub might be inevitable.
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
She needs to recharge her engine after a long global press tour for an old-fashioned “work the room” campaign that needs to start effective immediately. The bigger the box office, the better her shot.
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
A very strong performance, but will enough of the acting branch watch the movie? Will it make their year-end holiday break screening lists? Are there enough actors on the International Film viewing committees to make up the difference?
Saoirse Ronan, “The Outrun”
SPC has two other contenders in Torres and Tilda Swinton. They can only do so much. Ronan is deservedly beloved amongst her peers, however. That might be enough.
Lily Rose-Depp, “Nosferatu”
Hands down the best performance of her career so far. Why she and Focus decided to move her to lead over the expected Supporting Actress run is head-scratching. She had a much better shot in Supporting.
Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Should have held the release till next year. This is a campaign that needed major prep time.
Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door”
She’s great, but her co-star is better. Again, one of three SPC players vying for a slot.
June Squibb, “Thelma”
Perhaps a surprise SAG nominee. Maybe a Spirit Award nomination. Maybe Critics’ Choice. Oscars? Gonna be tough.
Amy Adams, “Nightbitch”
The performance is respected. Like Jolie, the movie not being as well received is an issue.
Zendaya, “Challengers”
Any campaigning she does now is only gonna help her down the road.
Kirsten Dunst, “Civil War”
In another timeline, this is a lock. Ah, well.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Should be a slam-dunk lock for a nomination assuming enough members watch the movie which we’re absolutely not worried about at all. No, not at all.
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Like most contenders, if AMPAS loves the movie and we mean “loves” the movie, watch out. Jennifer Hudson and Anne Hathway are right there.
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
In theory, it’s a safe pick, but emphasis on “in theory.”
Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”
If the branch believes she’s supporting she’ll make it. If not, oh, boy.
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unkonwn”
The late-party crasher might go all the way. She’s that good.
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
If the movie fades she’s in trouble, pt. 1.
Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz”
If the movie fades she’s in trouble, pt. 2.
Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
Hands down the best performance of her career so far. That may not be enough.
Natasha Lyonne, “His Three Daughters”
Why are we afraid she’s already been snubbed? Could SAG save the day?
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
To be frank, if she gets nominated you’re gonna have a hard time convincing me “Conclave” isn’t winning Best Picture.
Julianne Moore, “The Room Next Door”
Fantastic. Has the perfect tenor to work with Almodovar, but is the role showy enough in this competitive environment?
Carrie Coon, “His Three Daughters”
An incredible performance. Would love to see her surprise.
Selena Gomez, “Emilia Perez”
If the movie was beloved we could see it, but it is too polarizing and the race is too competitive.
Elle Fanning, “A Complete Unknown”
Might get a SAG Awards Ensemble nomination out of it. Branch members will remember the next time around.
Joan Chen, “Didi”
She’s campaigned admirably, but this field is too cutthroat. Potential Indie Spirit Award nominee, that’s likely it.
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
If they released a year from now she’d likely earn a nod here in a heartbeat. Her performance here is leaps and bounds more impressive than “Everything Everywhere All At Once” which, sigh, won her an Oscar in this category.
