You know the two rules of picking Golden Globe Awards winners, right? It’s really quite simple, actually.
First, even when they’ve nominated some questionable performances or films, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hate to be embarrassed. The last thing they want is to select a winner they’ll be made fun of in the mainstream media (technically their peers) for days (or years) on end. This rule mainly applies to the movie categories.
The second rule is that when it comes to the television categories, they often select the fresh-faced actor/actress (more the latter) and the “hot” new show everyone is buzzing about. They do deviate on this from this from year to year, but recent winners such as “Mr. Robot,” “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend“‘s Rachel Bloom and “Jane The Virgin“‘s Gina Rodriguez show the HFPA relish their chance to be award-season trendsetters. Especially when the SAG Awards, usually only two weeks later, tend to nominate the same actors and ensembles again and again.
Beyond that, the television categories are always tough to predict because a majority of the members mostly cover cinema, but the entire membership votes on all the awards. This year, the film winners should be dominated by “La La Land,” but there is some serious drama over who takes the Best Film – Drama and Best Actor – Drama honors.
Keeping that in mind, here are some predictions from a pundit who knows the HFPA way too well (although we’d advise you not bet on any of these in Vegas).
Best Picture, Drama
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell Or High Water”
“Lion”
“Manchester By The Sea”
“Moonlight”
Winner: “Moonlight”
If not: “Manchester By The Sea”
Upset: “Lion”
Lowdown: It should be “Moonlight,” but it could easily be “Manchester.” Can’t wait to see the reaction on social media if that happens.
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
“20th Century Women”
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“La La Land”
“Sing Street”
Winner: “La La Land”
If not: Nope
Upset: Nada
Lowdown: No way the HFPA gets it “wrong” (in their eyes) and pick any film other than “La La Land.” Book it.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester By The Sea”
Winner: Damien Chazelle
If not: Barry Jenkins
Upset: Kenneth Lonergan
Lowdown: This is a tough call. Jenkins could win, but we expect the HFPA to make the safer choice and go with Chazelle. Anyone besides these two would be a major upset.
Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, “Manchester By The Sea”
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Winner: Casey Affleck
If not: Denzel Washington
Upset: Andrew Garfield
Lowdown: Another category where it could go either way. Affleck probably has the slight advantage, but Washington has a shot. Don’t put it past the HFPA to also reward Garfield, however. Affleck and Washington could easily split the vote allowing Garfield to take the trophy.
Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Winner: Natalie Portman
If not: Isabelle Huppert
Upset: Amy Adams
Lowdown: Portman should easily win this.
Best Actress, Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”
Hailee Steinfeld, “The Edge Of Seventeen”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Winner: Emma Stone
If not: Meryl Streep
Upset: Annette Bening or Hailee Steinfeld
Lowdown: Like Portman, Stone should easily win this, but it’s not a lock.
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Colin Farrell, “The Lobster”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Jonah Hill, “War Dogs”
Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool”
Winner: Ryan Gosling
If not: Hugh Grant
Upset: Ryan Reynolds
Lowdown: Gosling is the likely winner here, but Grant or Reynolds hearing their name called wouldn’t really be an upset. Both comedy actors have charmed the HFPA for years when publicizing their films, and some of that goodwill might rub off on the members’ selections.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell Or High Water”
Simon Helberg, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Aaron Taylor-Johsnon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Winner: Mahershala Ali
If not: Dev Patel
Upset: Jeff Bridges or Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Lowdown: Ali has taken almost every honor in this category from the nation’s critics groups. That won’t be lost on the HFPA, but a Patel win also feels like a way for the HFPA to give their old friend Harvey (Weinstein) some love. Expect Ali, but don’t be shocked if Patel wins.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester By The Sea”
Winner: Viola Davis
If not: Nope
Upset: Nada
Lowdown: Davis has this hands down.
Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester By The Sea”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell Or High Water”
Winner: Kenneth Lonergan
If not: Taylor Sheridan
Upset: Barry Jenkins
Lowdown: Supposedly the HFPA were big fans of “Hell Or High Water.” This could be the category where they reward it.
Best Original Score
“Moonlight”
“La La Land”
“Arrival”
“Lion”
“Hidden Figures”
Winner: Justin Hurwitz for “La La Land”
If not: Nope
Upset: Nada
Lowdown: Would be one of the biggest upsets of the night if any film other than “La La Land” wins here.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Kubo And The Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“Sing”
“Zootopia”
Winner: “Zootopia”
If not: “Moana”
Upset: “Kubo And The Two Strings”
Lowdown: Whether “Zootopia” or “Moana” win (likely the former), Walt Disney Animated Studios will be happy.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Divines”
“Elle”
“Neruda”
“The Salesman”
“Toni Erdmann”
Winner: “Elle”
If not: “Toni Erdmann”
Upset: “Divines”
Lowdown: “Toni Erdmann” is probably the safer choice, but make no mistake, the HFPA would love to anoint a critically acclaimed film the Academy stupidly eliminated from contention for their own Best Foreign Language honor. Nothing better than looking smarter than big brother.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Can’t Stop The Feeling,” “Trolls”
“City Of Stars,” “La La Land”
“Faith,” “Sing”
“Gold,” “Gold”
“How Far I’ll Go,” “Moana”
Winner: “City of Stars”
If not: “Can’t Stop The Feeling”
Upset: “How Far I’ll Go”
Lowdown: Again, they love “La La Land,” so “City of Stars” should win, but Justin Timberlake’s “Trolls” track was one of the biggest chart hits of the year. It could be a tight three-way race between “City,” “Feeling” and “How Far I’ll Go,” with JT sneaking out a win.