Will there be eight or will there be nine Best Picture nominees?
After two years of just eight nominees, the Academy chose nine in 2017. Will there be nine again in 2018? “Dunkirk,” “Three Billboards,” “Shape of Water,” “Lady Bird” and “Get Out” all seem safe bets. “Call Me By Your Name” and “The Post” also seem safe. A mix of “Darkest Hour,” “The Florida Project” and “The Big Sick” seem likely to fill the eighth and ninth spots with “I, Tonya” and “Mudbound” as potential spoilers. We’re pretty confident there will be nine with “Darkest Hour” as number eight. As for nine? Ponder, pt. 2.
Will Netflix get credit for pushing through?
At this point in the game, it seems unlikely that Dee Rees’ “Mudbound” will earn a Best Picture nomination. The guild support doesn’t necessarily seem there and there are many in the Academy who are still unhappy with some of Netflix’s business practices in terms of the hiring of writers and directors (actors love them because they have created so much new content/work). Netflix has gone above and beyond for their campaign which they have waged for months with no in-theater presence or box office figures to hype. But, you should also remember that Netflix has never earned a non-documentary field nomination. Getting Mary J. Blige a Supporting Actress nod, Rees, and Virgil Williams an Adapted Screenplay nomination and Rachel Morrison a historic Cinematography nod would be huge for the streaming service (as would a Visual Effects nod for “Okja”). Not only would it force Academy members to pay attention to Netflix films in the years to come, but would demonstrate to filmmakers that if you make a movie with them (or get acquired) they will walk the walk when it comes to putting on a proper awards season campaign. Best Picture nomination or not, that’s a huge, huge win for Ted Sarandos across the board.
Can Laurie Metcalf regain momentum?
I’ve been calling a Laurie Metcalf Oscar win since Telluride and, frankly, I’m sticking with it. At the moment, however, “I, Tonya’s” Allison Janney looks like she’s about to steal the “Lady Bird” star’s thunder. Janney took both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice this week making a Metcalf win at either the SAG Awards or the BAFTAs a necessity. Metcalf won a ton of critics prizes, but Janney has the advantage of having worked more consistently in television over the past decade which has helped her with the press (HFPA, BFCA) and could send her over the top with a SAG membership that more consistently works on the small screen. Then again, Metcalf may have enough clout with the Academy membership (this is where the Tony win helps) to take it at the end. But, at this point, it’s certainly a little too close for comfort.
Why is The Academy making FLF voting still so hard?
So, the Academy tried to allow more members to participate in the final phase of shortlisting Foreign Language Film voting. This has become a big deal as phase one only takes place in Los Angeles. For the shortlist, international members can watch the films on digital screeners. Any New York-based member can attend the screenings this upcoming weekend in Manhattan and vote as long as they vote in person. If you are in Los Angeles and a working member of the Academy who could not participate in round one? Well, you better be on committee chair Mark Johnson’s short list of invitees or you’re not allowed to participate. But, wait. It gets better. Let’s say you are an international member of the Academy who happens to be in Los Angeles for awards season and want to participate (like the one I met a “Mudbound” event this week). You’d assume that member could attend the LA screenings right? See the movies on the big screen? Nope, not allowed. They need to watch them on the screener. A New York member in town? Sorry, you’re screwed. Can’t participate unless you vote in New York. O.K., so for an increasing cinephile membership that wants to participate, how is this new system only slightly better? The whole idea was to have as many qualified members participate in the second phase as they can. Doesn’t this defeat the purpose a bit? Oh, and did we mention that the screeners sent to international members are only subtitled in English? Ponder, pt. 3.
If a DGA director is out for Best Director who is it?
In case you hadn’t heard, the nominees for the DGA’s Best Director honor and Oscar’s Best Director award have not lined up since 2010 when Kathryn Bigelow took both prizes. It’s a long enough trend to make one of the DGA five worry as the Academy continues, as we previously noted, to become more cinephile and international compared to the industry guilds themselves. If one slot flips we’re guessing it’s filled by either “Call Me By Your Name’s” Luca Guadagnino, “The Florida Project’s” Sean Baker or, in all seriousness, “Blade Runner 2049’s” Denis Villeneuve (frankly, we’d be shocked if Spielberg crashed the party). Who’s out? With Guillermo del Toro likely the only lock for a nomination out of the DGA five your guess is as good as mine.
A few other anecdotal notes to consider before the nominations are announced:
– Don’t be surprised if “Valerian: City of Planets” is snubbed in Visual Effects. Word is, their bake-off presentation was awkward and didn’t necessarily showcase the best work of the film. The room was very confused afterward.
– When voters react to the movie they love with a look like they’ve just gotten a new puppy it’s usually “The Shape of Water” more than anything else. That may be telling.
– We’re worried about “Call Me By Your Name” in every category but Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Best Actor, but you should really be worried about Best Original Song. It feels like a major snub in the works. We hope we’re wrong!
The 90th Academy Award nominations will be announced at 8:30 AM ET, 5:30 PT on January 23. Look for full coverage all morning long on The Playlist.
