There may be few actors walking red carpets or pounding the award season pavement at post-screening receptions, but the 2024 Oscar season is (almost) in full effect. Guild members that can attend screenings are filling seats and directors and (now) writers are enjoying a spotlight like never before. And in the midst of this yearly chaos, there is a sense of unease. Like every season this decade, more and more obstacles are affecting the proceedings (even if they are currently a justified actor’s strike). In fact, it’s almost remarkable that we’ve reached mid-October and there are so few questions about the telecast itself (although we have one big one). Even The Academy has somehow been spared a controversy (so far, at least).
READ MORE: Best Picture Oscars 2023 Predictions And Contenders
Keeping all that in mind, we’ve got 18 genuine questions that award-season consultants, publicists, and marketing executives are attempting to navigate from the 213 to the 310 to 818 area codes. Let’s dive into this mess, shall we?
Will AMPAS members watch more nominees in phase one since many of them are not working?
Writers are back at work. Actors, directors, below-the-line, post-production people? Eh, not so much. If the SAG-AFTRA strike continues, we may be in for a season similar to the 2020-2021 COVID-affected campaign. That found many members watching a ton of screeners from home, and while that may partially be the case this time around, there is already anecdotal evidence that significantly more people are showing up for guild screenings than in previous years. That’s impressive considering SAG members are not in the mix. Industry production not resuming until January could also mean more members volunteering for the Animated and International Film nomination process (just as in 2020-2021). That could give those particular movies an advantage in other categories. A potential trend to keep an eye on.
Who will host the 96th Academy Awards?
I mean, it’s probably gonna be Jimmy Kimmel again and maybe that’s fine at this point. We haven’t been big fans of the ABC late-night host over the years (he did not handle the “La La Land”/“Moonlight” debacle well and the pizza ordering schtick was lame), but he guided the 95th Oscars to a ratings increase and we personally gained a newfound appreciation for him on the “Strike Force Five” podcast which now, sadly, has ended. And considering the ongoing SAG strike, and the fact ABC will likely have “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” Leonardo DiCaprio, and Emma Stone to promote, among others, going with the dependable emcee might make the most sense (assuming he is willing to come back).
Do A24 and Neon have a competitive advantage due to SAG interim agreements?
The simple is answer: Yes. Jacob Elrodi, star of “Priscilla,” isn’t necessarily a star yet, but he’s recognizable (and perhaps tall) enough to get publicity and that’s A24’s go-to to drive up AMPAS member interest. And when “The Iron Claw” arrives on the scene with Zac Efron, Jeremy Allen White, and Harris Dickinson? They will get all the hype they need to encourage members to watch their movie and hear whatever talking point they are giving in interviews on the red carpet. Both distributors also have the advantage of sending Sandra Hüller to tastemakers for “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest.” Neon can also recruit recent Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis as well as Vera Farmiga, Jon Bernthal, and Niecy Nash to promote “Origin” (and work tastemaker events on both coasts). Neon also has star power in Anne Hathaway for “Eileen” (a deserving performance that could use some real-person hustle on the ground) as well as Adam Driver and Penelope Cruz in “Ferrari.” Compare that to AMPTP studios which have just their directors, writers, and below-the-line talent available, and, yes, being independent in 2023 has its advantages.
What if the SAG strike is not settled by Thanksgiving? Shoot, what if it’s not settled by Christmas?
They will never admit it publicly, but most studios were assuming the SAG strike would be over by late November. And, to be fair, before the most recent dramatic “pause in negotiations” nothing indicated it might not be. But, if not, and if the SAG strike drags out till January, this will be a very different first phase of Oscar season. Actors bring media attention and, for major contenders, a cast is often scattered to events in Los Angeles, London, New York, San Francisco, and a slew of local film festivals and events. Frankly, if the strike goes that long we’ll have absolutely no idea what most of the actors (the largest branch of The Academy) think about anything (there will be no SAG Awards nominations to tease their preferences). That could lead to a ton of surprises on Oscar nomination morning.
What movie will benefit from Box Office success the most?
Some films need to gain the industry’s attention from a successful box office run and others don’t (it never hurts). Notably, two October releases have a shot to pump up their Best Picture…winning…chances. “Anatomy of a Fall” will begin in limited release on Oct. 13. If it can make some noise on the art house circuit, say gross $8-10 million by the end of December, that will be seen as a significant achievement for a mostly non-English courtroom drama. Moreover, if “Killers of the Flower Moon” (wide on Oct. 20) can gross anything close to $90 or $100 million in the U.S. alone? That would be a massive win for Apple Studios before it hits Apple TV+ in December. Moreover, “The Holdovers” (limited on Oct 27, wide Nov. 10), is the sort of art-house crowd pleaser that could pop above the $10 million threshold and gain some genuine box office traction. That would be a boon to Focus’ goals of multiple nominations for Alexander Payne’s comeback dramedy. And those are the sorts of storylines that can help push a lively nominee to the top of the pack.
What Original Song contenders will Warner Bros submit for “Barbie”?
Remember ABC and those Oscar producers we were talking about earlier? Let me tell you, there is nothing they would love more than for two or more (yes more), songs from Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster to earn Original Song nominations. Dua Lipa performing “Dance The Night Away”? Shoot, you could open the telecast with that one. Billie Eilish going for Oscar no. 2 at the age of 22 for “What Was I Made For…”? Promo heaven. Ryan Gosling performing “I’m Just Ken”? I mean, that’s probably a big ol’ no from him, but they could find someone fun to stand in. Of course, for almost 20 years studios, filmmakers and songwriters have realized the more nominations you submit, the harder it is to land just one nom. And, if you do land multiple noms, you have a significantly tougher shot at winning (see “Dreamgirls,” “Enchanted,” “The Princess and The Frog”). Would Gerwig, WB, and soundtrack producer Mark Ronson risk not submitting Dua Lipa’s top 10 Billboard Hot 100 hit? A song whose melody was integral to a dance number in the film’s inception? Can you justify not submitting “I’m Just Ken”? Or do you just land the nominations and hope for the best? No easy answer here.
Can International Film contenders “Perfect Days” or “The Taste of Things” crash other categories?
A consistent trend since the Academy began inviting more international members into the organization is the overall globalization of the Oscars. Since 2019 we’ve had a non-English language Best Picture nominee four out of five years. And, despite its A24 connections, you could throw “Minari” into that mix as over 50% of it is not in English which would make that a five straight years trend. Besides “Anatomy of a Fall,” which is reportedly over 59% in French and German, and “The Zone of Interest,” which is almost completely in German, there are two other films that could generate enough love to crack the Best Picture race and beyond. The first is Trần Anh Hùng’s “The Taste of Things” (“The Pot-au-Feu”) which could also find love for Juliette Binoche in Best Actress and land Screenplay, Cinematography, and Costume Design nods. Wim Wenders’ “Perfect Days” is in play for Original Screenplay and Cannes winner Kôji Yakusho could find love from his peers in the Best Actor race. Plus, did we mention both films can actually campaign with their actors involved?
Could Sandra Hüller or Colman Domingo earn two nominations each?
The last actor who earned two acting nominations in the same calendar year was Scarlett Johansson for “Marriage Story” and “Jojo Rabbit” in 2020. Hüller will likely earn a Best Actress nomination for “Anatomy of a Fall” and has an outside shot for Best Supporting Actress recognition in “The Zone of Interest.” Colman Domingo is also in the mix for one of the two final Best Actor slots for “Rustin” and might earn a Supporting Actor nomination for “The Color Purple” as well. Considering how competitive the Actress categories are, Domingo might have a better shot at pulling it off than Hüller.
Do the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards even matter if they are announced in a void?
It’s the second week of October and neither the Golden Globes nor the Critics Choice Awards appear to have deals to broadcast their annual “everybody gets a nomination somehow” ceremonies. The Globes have aired on NBC for decades, except for 2022 when controversy over the organization’s methods and, arguably, not-so-diverse membership came to a head. The telecast returned this past January but ratings were even lower than the 2021 COVID set ceremony. The Critics Choice Awards was back on the CW with its worst ratings ever. Just 900,000 people watched. Will that network, which has segued to cheaper programming, find a way to make an ad revenue deal with the CCA to put the show on? Will NBC do the same with a dearth of new programming thanks to the WGA/SAG strikes? And if neither ceremony is broadcast on cable or terrestrially, do they even matter? As they do not reflect the tastes of any guild or AMPAS voters have they ever mattered beyond a bunch of fun afterparties spread out across the Beverly Hilton Hotel?