Who will take advantage of the Emmys as an awards circuit pit stop?
Assuming the SAG strike has ended (hopefully), a new high-profile awards event has dropped into Oscar consultant and publicist laps, the Emmy Awards. Yep, the 75th Primetime Emmys moved from its traditional September date to January 15 due to both the WGA and SAG strikes and, unlike the aforementioned awards shows, has both a major network (FOX) and crossover in Television Academy and AMPAS membership. It also occurs on the last full night of Oscar voting, so it won’t have that much of an impact, but it could be a great reminder for phase two. And as an event for contenders to socialize with other AMPAS or guild voting members? Somewhat ideal. As the Emmys are going to be marking a historic milestone, they would love to have any big-name crossover talent willing to present or participate during the program. Make your presenting predictions now.
Is the Animated Feature race closer than many think?
It was something of a given this past summer that the spectacular box office performance and reviews for “Spider-Man: Across the Universe” would find Sony Animation looking at another Spidey Oscar win. That was before the legendary Hayao Miyazaki released “The Boy in the Heron” (now on the festival circuit) or Peter Sohn’s “Elemental” had a box office comeback for Pixar (and also killed on Disney+). And it’s super competitive just to make the five-nominee class. Disney’s November musical “Wish,” Paramount’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem,” Aardman Animation’s “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget,” Illumination’s massive “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” and Cannes favorite “Robot Dreams,” among others, are all in the mix.
Can two women earn Best Director nominations in one year again?
Just three years ago, the Directing branch made history. Eventual winner Chloe Zhao and Emerald Fennell were nominated for Best Director. It was the first time two women were recognized in the category in one year. History might repeat itself in 2024. “Barbie’s” Greta Gerwig is a given, but “Anatomy of a Fall’s” Justine Triet is absolutely in the mix as well. Not that far on the outside looking in are “Past Lives'” Celine Song, “Saltburn’s” Fennell (more on that movie in a minute), and “Priscilla’s” Sofia Coppola. If we liked to wager, we might just place a double female nominee bet.
Can Sony Pictures Classics work their magic again without actors available?
No studio does more without little paid advertising than SPC. Over the past few years, their talent crashed the circuit to land “The Father” six Oscar nominations and, earlier this year, key noms including Best Actor for “Living.” The Sony Pictures division has another Anthony Hopkins player on their roster, “Freud’s Last Stand,” but is an AMPTP signatory. How do they sell “Freud” to members without any star power behind it until the SAG strike ends?
Is “All Of Us Strangers” the Best Picture “surprise” nominee?
An evergreen reminder: AMPAS members like to cry. One movie that has been generating tears and moving audiences on the festival circuit and at guild screenings is Andrew Haigh’s “All of Us Strangers.” And while the gay romance between Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal’s characters is a good chunk of it, many viewers are moved by the relationship between Scott’s character and his parents played by Claire Foy and Jamie Bell. For some reason, many media are sleeping on this. But AMPAS members are talking and we’ve heard of Acting branch members getting themselves into festival screenings to see it (that’s allowed if they pay themselves). Oh, and did we mention the Brits are all over it? Pay attention as this could be the Best Picture nominee no one sees coming until the Oscar and BAFTA longlists drop on December 21 and January 5, respectively.
Can the Brits help “Saltburn” to make an Award Season comeback?
Speaking of those influential AMPAS members across the Atlantic, a little film had something of a critical and audience comeback in merry ol’ England. Fennell’s “Saltburn” – which we’re admittedly fans of – killed it at its London Film Festival screenings. The movie is definitely polarizing, but it has a passionate fanbase that is growing. Throw in BAFTA and it could surprise in more categories than just Cinematography.
Which Amazon MGM Studios contender pops?
The newly merged studio knew they had a player in Ben Affleck‘s well-received “Air.” They knew there would be a ton of attention on the aforementioned “Saltburn.” But did they really know Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction” would be a contender to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award and therefore immediately insert itself into the Best Picture race? We may never know, but whether they did or not, the Culver City distributor now has three contenders to juggle. Moreover, the last time a People’s Choice Award winner didn’t earn an Oscar nomination was in 2012 with “Where Do We Go Now?” That’s 11 straight years. Does that mean “Fiction” surges past its stablemates to Oscar glory?
Will Netflix have another late-season surprise?
A year ago, the streamer was busy pushing “Knives Out” and “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” for Oscar contention, and all the while another one of their films, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” was quietly building momentum, Netflix knew it had a shot at the International Film category but until the BAFTA longlist revelation was not taking any genuine Best Picture hopes that seriously. Oscar loves to surprise, however, and eventually, the epic war film earned nine nominations and took four trophies home. Fast forward to 2024 And Netflix has “Maestro,” “The Killer,” “Nyad,” “Rustin,” and “May December” to champion, but could there be another player in the wings? May we suggest you don’t skip out on J.A. Bayona‘s incredibly well-made “Society of The Snow.” Is it a Best Picture player? Unlikely, but it could easily crack the International Film shortlist and land a ton of below-the-line category nominations no one is expecting. At least no one is expecting right now.
Is this a “Heart” or a “Cinematic Achievement” winning Best Picture year?
It’s never easy to win Best Picture, but one surefire advantage is to emotionally engage your audience. Yes, tears help (“The Shape of Water,” “CODA”). But something special. Something truly cinematic can also take the crown (“Birdman,” “Parasite”). And, sometimes, it’s a combination of the two (“Nomadland,” “Moonlight,” “Everything Everywhere At Once“). But acclaimed films that leave you cold (“Roma,” “The Power of the Dog,” “1917”) often come up short. So, the biggest question of all is what film this year can make AMPAS members cry or overwhelm in terms of a breakthrough cinematic experience. Ponder.
