The first rule of predicting the Independent Spirit Awards is to always choose the contender that is from the film that is the biggest box office hit among the nominees. It sounds silly and simplistic, but when you look back at the winners this decade it holds true to form 80% of the time. The honors are determined by Film Independent members, a majority of whom are not industry professionals and often haven’t seen all the potential winners. And, since there are over 11,000 members it often becomes a popularity contest. 2018 may or may not throw those trends to the wind.
READ MORE: Snubs and Surprises of the 2017 Independent Spirit Awards
There are three films with multiple nominations that all have earned over $47 million: “Get Out,” “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Granted, “Get Out” earned a massive $176 million, but only two other Best Film winners in the 32-year history of the Spirits have even come close to that, “Juno” ($143 million) and “Black Swan” ($106 million). The usual “winning” threshold is a $45 million-plus hit which qualify “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards” for the upset. There is also “Call Me By Your Name.” The Sony Classics drama may have only earned $15.7 million, but a ton of Spirit Voters saw it on screener, at free screenings or (eke) maybe even an illegal download or two. Sure, you’re going to see a lot of “Get Out” related winners below, but it’s not going to win everything. We present last year’s “surprise” Best Actress winner Isabelle Huppert, star of the $2.1 million grossing “Elle,” as evidence the biggest grosser trend always has a hiccup or two.
Keeping all that in mind, here are some pretty safe bets for the winners you’ll hear announced on the Nick Kroll and John Mulaney hosted telecast on Saturday.
Best Feature
“Call Me by Your Name”
Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Rodrigo Teixeira, Marco Morabito, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman
“The Florida Project”
Producers: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri, Shih-Ching Tsou
“Get Out”
Producers: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird”
Producers: Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin
“The Rider”
Producers: Mollye Asher, Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Chloé Zhao
Who will win: “Get Out”
Who should win: “The Florida Project” or “Call Me By Your Name”
Upset: “Lady Bird”
Lowdown: “Get Out” has a shot at Best Picture on Sunday, but Universal and Blumhouse should have a lot to celebrate on Saturday. “Lady Bird” seems the most likely upset challenger, but “Call Me By Your Name” could shock here.
Best First Feature
“Columbus”
Director: Kogonada
Producers: Danielle Renfrew Behrens, Aaron Boyd, Giulia Caruso, Ki Jin Kim, Andrew Miano, Chris Weitz
“Ingrid Goes West”
Director: Matt Spicer
Producers: Jared Ian Goldman, Adam Mirels, Robert Mirels, Aubrey Plaza, Tim White, Trevor White
“Menashe”
Director/Producer: Joshua Z. Weinstein
Producers: Yoni Brook, Traci Carlson, Daniel Finkelman, Alex Lipschultz
“Oh Lucy!”
Director/Producer: Atsuko Hirayanagi
Producers: Jessica Elbaum, Yukie Kito, Han West
“Patti Cake$”
Director: Geremy Jasper
Producers: Chris Columbus, Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey, Daniela Taplin Lundberg, Noah Stahl, Rodrigo Teixeira
Who will win: “Ingrid Goes West”
Who should win: “Ingrid Goes West”
Upset: “Columbus”
Lowdown: This is actually a very close race. “Columbus” earned more rave reviews and is the more “serious” of the two, but ‘Ingrid’ is the bigger hit and many voters likely caught it on digital download or VOD. We’re leaning ‘Ingrid’ based on the LA subject matter and that most voters are from Southern California, but…
Best Director
Sean Baker, “The Florida Project”
Jonas Carpignano, “A Ciambra”
Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me by Your Name”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, “Good Time”
Chloé Zhao, “The Rider”
Who will win: Jordan Peele
Who should win: Luca Guadagnino or Sean Baker
Upset: Luca Guadagnino
Lowdown: Peele should win this, but Guadagnino could surprise. It’s a long shot for the Oscar-snubbed “Call Me By Your Name” director though.
Best Screenplay
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Azazel Jacobs, “The Lovers”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Mike White, “Beatriz at Dinner”
Who will win: Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Who should win: Martin McDonagh, ‘Three Billboards’
Upset: Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Lowdown: We think the Film Independent membership want to reward “Lady Bird” more than AMPAS will on Sunday and Screenplay is one of two places where this can happen. The safer bet is Peele, but our gut tells us Gerwig gets her moment in the spotlight here.
