So there’s pre-TIFF Oscar predix and then there’s the more accurate post-TIFF Oscar predix. There will always be a surprise or two, but this is basically where we’ve netted out so far. We’re only listing 8 out of 10, because the rest we have to wait and see what emerges. But we’re convinced “The Lovely Bones” is out of the pack now that it’s been dumped in a late December, obligator-qualifying spot and then is going with a wide January release. It never really looked that great to begin with and this move by Paramount confirms it in our eyes.
Obviously coming out of TIFF, “Precious,” which won the audience award and “A Single Man,” which we saw and were nearly bowled over, got some good bumps from TIFF. So did “A Serious Man,” which we saw, and is also doing well with critics.
The question mark here is “Invictus.” Is it that good? Or is it a “Changeling” or a “Gran Torino,” i.e., ok to good, but not Oscar material (we should read that script, we have it lying around.) Another one is “Nine.” It’s been rumored to be possibly bumped into 2010. If that happens it’s obviously out of the race, but right now it basically has to switch dates because it’s going up against a November 25 “The Road” release, both are Weinstein Company films and they don’t want to divide audiences. It really seems that Harvey Weinstein is all in a lather and bonered up over Tom Ford’s “A Single Man,” and with good reason. It could easily earn not just a Best Picture, but a Best Director nod for the fashion-magnate-turned-filmmaker’s feature-length debut. So watch the “Nine” bump when it happens closely because it will give clues as to how confident they are about “A Single Man.” We’ll tell you right now Colin Firth is a shoo-in for a Best Actor nomination. Julianne Moore could get a Best Supporting nod as well. And please don’t factor in the gay qualities “A Single Man.” If “Milk” can score a nod, then “A Single Man,” which is really 10 times better, certainly can.
So as it stands now, this is where it seems we are:
“An Education”
“A Single Man”
“A Serious Man”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Invictus”
“Nine”
“Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire”
“Up in the Air”
One more question is “Up.” Does it have the legs for a Best Picture? That leaves one more. The answer is we don’t know yet, so let’s not bother putting up stupid guesses.
