They thought “Titanic” was a disaster. “Avatar” was an expensive mess that would never make a profit. And when the films were finally screened, the naysayers were utterly wrong. If Hollywood history has taught us anything it’s to never, ever, ever bet against James Cameron. We’re limited in what can report that isn’t constituted as a review for his latest epic, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” but after screenings on two continents yesterday it’s clear he hasn’t lost his legendary touch. And, yes, that means Cameron should have a third Best Picture nominee in his coffers when the Oscar nominations are revealed next month.
READ MORE: James Cameron says he has plans for “Avatar 6” and “Avatar 7”
In 2010, the original “Avatar” earned nine nominations including Best Picture and Best Director. It lost those two honors to “The Hurt Locker” and Kathryn Bigelow (Cameron’s ex-wife) respectively but won three Oscars including Visual Effects, Art Direction (now Production Design), and Cinematography. Two of those nods were for the separate sound categories that were recently combined into the singular Best Sound honor. Can “The Way of Water” match its predecessor’s tally?
Director? You bet. Cameron should get a DGA nod as well. Visual Effects? Give it the statue now. Editing? Absolutely deserves to make the…cut. Production Design? Possible. There is more world-building, but is it different enough from the first installment? Unlike say, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” we’re not so sure. Best Sound? A given. Best Cinematography? It’s been nine years since a CG-heavy film, “Gravity,” cracked this category (intriguingly, four CG-heavy films won in a row between 2010-2014). That’s a cause for concern. Best Original Score? New composer Simon Franglen worked with James Horner on the original score (he passed away in 2015), but this iteration may sound too similar to the music branch to crack the field. Best Original Song? Eh. The closing credits track by Franglen and The Weeknd, “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” felt clunky and somewhat forced (you can hear a significant amount of it here). It’s such a competitive year, we wouldn’t bet on it. Costumes? If it didn’t get a nomination in 2010, it’s not this time around. Original Screenplay? The category is simply too competitive and the writers’ branch isn’t necessarily fans of Cameron’s broad touch.
Granted, all of this speculation should be predicated on “The Way of Water’s” box office performance. If it disappoints or fades by the time the voting deadline comes around it’s possible some members will get cold feet. That being said, the initial reactions are so strong we’d be stunned if it didn’t turn out to be the must-see film of the holiday season everyone expects it to be. It might even spur another 3D renaissance.
Keeping all this in mind, here’s a brand new Contender Countdown for your enjoyment.
December 7, 2022
1 “The Fablemans”
The Oscars shortlist drop on Dec. 21 will reveal just how deep its support is.
2 “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
It didn’t win NYFCC, but can it win LAFCA?
3 “The Banshees of the Inisherin”
Oh look, the critics’ groups are getting behind Colin Farrell for Best Actor. Imagine that.
4 “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Someone call Vanessa Williams. James Cameron saved the best for last this Oscar season.
5 “Top Gun: Maverick”
It’s oh so quiet. Until Globe and Critics Choice nominations, I guess.
6 “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Everybody loves Angela Bassett. Standing ovation after standing ovation at screenings for this legend.
7 “Elvis”
The Gotham Awards! The White House! Silverlake bars! Baz Luhrmann is everywhere! He’s a one-man promo machine!
8 “TAR”
NYFCC wins for Best Film and Best Actress certainly don’t hurt. This year’s definition of “safe.”
9 “Women Talking”
Once again, we’re wondering if pushing the release date back was a mistake.
10 “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Will more members have seen “RRR” or “Glass Onion” by the time they vote? Before you answer that..ponder.
ALMOST THERE
11 “Close”
The reactions are incredible. But will enough AMPAS members overall watch it? Trade ads would certainly help!
12 “RRR”
Skeptical, but happy to be proven wrong (not even sure it’s getting a Best Original Song nomination everyone thinks is a given).
13 “Aftersun”
Forget “The Whale,” is this critic’s favorite A24’s real second (or third) Best Picture nominee?
14 “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”
I mean, it might lose the Animated Feature Oscar to “Turning Red” or “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.” Guillermo can work wonders but…
15 “The Woman King”
Another player which could use a Globe and Critics Choice boost.
16 “Babylon”
We’re still over a week away from reviews dropping. It began screening for press and guilds before Thanksgiving. Think about that for a minute.
17 “Nope”
In a sea of contenders aiming for the 9th or 10th spot does this critical and summer box office hit deserve more attention? Universal certainly hasn’t given up on it…
18 “Empire of Light”
A majority of critics have not been kind since its Telluride debut (there are exceptions), but it plays like bonkers at guild and AMPAS screenings. And don’t count Olivia Colman out for a Best Actress nomination. Overall, the disconnect is puzzling.
19 “TILL”
Not only did it get Cher’s endorsement, but she hosted a screening. Probably all about Danielle Deadwyler and a Best Actress nomination at this point though.
20 “Living”
Definitely looking for some Globe and Critics Choice love. If not, SPC has a very tough road ahead.
