What a weird and strange Best Picture race that has been thrust upon us. The major studios’ selections are slim, every potential winner has major question marks, and by the time nomination voting comes around, enough contenders may have fallen off that unexpected titles from earlier in the year rise to make the field of 10. If there is one thing we know for sure, it’s that Sean Baker’s “Anora,” Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez,” and Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” are your safest nomination bets.
Beyond those three, the most likely nominees are Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune Part II” (assuming the February release is not forgotten), Edward Berger’s “Conclave” (strong box office will make it a lock), Pedro Almodovar’s “The Room Next Door” (should play better to the Academy than critics), and Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” (WW II and kids don’t miss). Of course, four potential nominees still have not been screened. They include James Mangold‘s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight believes), Robert Zemeckis’ “Here” (the buzz is all over the place), Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu” (the word is it’s more than a below-the-line player), and Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” (if it’s escapist, why not).
Other potential nominees include Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain” (it plays), Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” (they need to campaign to make the cut), Alex Garland’s “Civil War” (an industry favorite since release), Greg Kwedar’s “Sing Sing” (the question is whether guild and AMPAS members will watch), RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” (may need a major critics group prize or two), and Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night” (another movie that will. play better to the guilds and AMPAS than critics, but let us know when the campaign starts).
On the periphery is Kelsey Mann’s “Inside Out 2” (the “don’t call it a comeback” Pixar comeback), John M. Chu‘s expected blockbuster “Wicked,” Tim Fehlbaum’s incredibly crafted “September 5,” (needs special care), Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” (likely just a deserved Marianne Jean-Baptiste play, but shouldn’t be), and Mohammad Rasoulof‘s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (a longshot unless the international voters decide its not). Needless to say, with the aforementioned potential players left to screen, these categories could change dramatically in the next month. [Posted September 30]
Frontrunners
“Anora”
“Emilia Perez”
“The Brutalist”
Likely In
“Dune Part II”
“Conclave”
“The Room Next Door”
“Blitz”
Almost there
“A Real Pain”
“Challengers”
“Civil War”
“Sing Sing”
“Nickel Boys”
“Saturday Night”
Possible
“A Complete Unknown”*
“Nosferatu”*
“Gladiator II”*
“Better Man”
In the mix
“Inside Out 2”
“Wicked”*
“September 5”
“Hard Truths”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Longshots
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
“Queer”
“The Substance”
“His Three Daughters”
“Maria”
“Here”
“Kinds of Kindness”
*not screened publicly for media at publication
