With the announcement of the full line-up expected in a just over two weeks (April 15th to be precise), Cannes prognostication has gone into full swing. With the tea leaves being turned, there’s lots of speculation and wishful thinking, but there’s also a good amount of reporting being done which augurs well for certain films.
Three pieces have landed in the last two days, one from Euro site CineEuropa, an Indiewire wishlist with some good educated guesses and Anne Thompson‘s temperature taking of the IW piece with nuggets of good intel scattered within. We already graded a ScreenDaily predictions piece and it looks like many of those pictures — including many of the pics we assumed would make the cut — will be present when all is said in done.
So far we know that Tim Burton is heading up the jury (uh, why?) and Ridley Scott’s “Robin Hood” tentpole will open up the festival (more for headline weight than anything its in worldwide theaters a week later). As for the rest here are our educated guesses based on what we know on what might appear at the Croisette regardless of whether its in or out of competition or gets scheduled in one of the festivals many sidebar programs.
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LOCK
Oliver Stone’s “Wall Street 2” — The film’s release was bumped to accommodate a Cannes premiere. It’ll be there, but will almost certainly play out of competition.
Woody Allen’s “You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger” — The French love Allen, but given that he’s never screened a film in competition by choice, it will be an out-of-competition film for sure. He’s also already earned a lifetime achievement award from the festival, so we’d frankly be surprised if we didn’t see the film here.
LOOKING VERY LIKELY
Terrence Malick’s “Tree Of Life” — Anne Thompson says Brad Pitt and Sean Penn are already in negotiations to walk the red carpet without the reclusive, publicity-shy director which is a concession Cannes would normally not make, but this is Terry Malick and the world bends to his whims. Clearly in advanced negotiations to appear at the Croisette, we’d put this mystical family drama in the lock category if it weren’t for the quixotic Malick who could decide to shoot second unit butterfly migrations instead if he so chooses. Don’t believe it until its officially announced (and you’ve double checked the paperwork yourself). The red carpet negotiations definitely point towards a regular premiere and not the Director’s Fortnight preem as some had speculated (which we never really believed anyhow).
Abbas Kiarostami’s “Certified Copy” — No, a new Cannes poster with Kirostami’s star Juliette Binoche is not a lot to go on, but we already assumed a year ago that his latest would bow at the Croisette.
Mike Leigh’s “Another Year” — The secretive project — of which you first heard about its title here, you’re welcome — is still largely under wraps, but its likely another poignant and patented Leigh human drama. Again, we assumed this would play Cannes a year ago.
Olivier Assayas’ “Carlos” — His sprawling take on the life of famed terrorist Carlos The Jackal, filmed as a three part television mini-series, has already been acquired by IFC who will release the film in theaters this year. He’s also coming off the widely celebrated “Summer Hours.”
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s “Biutiful” — Details on the latest from the director of “Amores Perros” and “21 Grams” are scarce, but it seems likely this will unspool on the Croisette.
Jean-Luc Godard’s “Socialisme”— France. Godard. Done.
Tom Tykwer “Three” — It wasn’t finished in time for Berlin, which most likely means its been completed for submission here. It also marks a return to filmmaking in his native Germany after floundering somewhat with bigger budget international productions.
Guillame Canet’s “Little White Lies” — Already poised for a October release in France, if Canet has wrapped up the film in time, the festival would love to have Marion Cotillard walk the red carpet. It would same a good place to premiere the film in advance of what is sure to be a run of festival appearances this year.
Anh Hung Tran’s “Norweigan Wood” — An international favorite thanks to “The Scent Of Green Papaya,” the latest from Tran stars Rinko Kikuchi, features a score by Jonny Greenwood and is based on a book by Haruki Murakami. It’s the kind of full flavored film the festival eats up.
DESPITE YOUR WISHFUL THINKING, PROBABLY NOT
We never really believed the talk that said Darren Aronofksy’s “Black Swan” was going to premiere at Cannes and Thompson says the film likely won’t be ready in time. We’re not surprised, it just finished shooting in February.
David O. Russell’s “The Fighter” has been bandied about as a potential, but having just undergone reshoots recently — Mark Wahlberg had to put on weight to play the pugilist later in life — we doubt its going to be ready. Wishful thinkers want O. Russell’s “Nailed” to appear, but the film was never fully completed (key scenes were never shot) and its tied up in bankruptcy issues anyhow. For the umpteenth time, if its ever released we expect a DVD cut that potentially doesn’t make sense and has a lot of narrative gaps. Everyone has moved on and unless a millionaire philanthropist appears, no one will reconvene for reshoots. Be glad they got as far as they did (sounds like around the 80-85% complete mark). Johnny Depp’s “The Rum Diary” latest was once expected to possibly vie for an in-competition premiere might not be ready in time. Word is quiet around John Cameron Mitchell’s “Rabbit Hole” starring Aaron Eckhart and Nicole Kidman which makes us think it won’t be ready in time. Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere” had a good chance at a Cannes appearance, festival organizers like her, but she’s due with baby number 2 in May which conflicts. Toronto or Venice premieres (or both) is expected instead. Wong Kar Wai works at this own pace so don’t expect his latest “The Grand Master” to show up here. Same deal with Kelly Reichardt who is editing “Meek’s Cutoff” herself in between teaching commitments. Seems more likely for a Cannes 2011 entry or a possible Venice or Toronto entry this year if she works quickly (bear in mind she spent six months editing “Wendy & Lucy”). While Doug Liman’s political thriller “Fair Game” was aiming for a Cannes premiere, we imagine that even with Sean Penn in a starring role, his involvement in Malick’s “Tree Of Life” will be a distraction. Venice or Toronto seem more likely. Considering Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter” was still shooting as recently as February don’t expect it to show up here. He works fast but not that fast.
Lastly, just remember the Croisette generally favors European cinephile fare and American works generally play out of competition aside from the more ambitious works like Soderbergh’s sprawling two-part “Che” and Charlike Kaufman’s lugubrious mindbender, “Synecdoche, New York.”
