There was a moment during the Cannes Film Festival when a veteran awards consultant remarked to this pundit about how weird the 2025 Oscar season would be. Having been in this game much too long myself, I have heard this line before every season gets rolling too often to count. Usually, by the time the festival trifecta of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have unfurled, there are at least a few strong Best Picture frontrunners to quell those fears. It’s now been a few days since the official end of TIFF and “The Life of Chuck,” a movie with no current awards prospects or a distributor, took the People’s Choice Award. It’s been a week since we’ve returned to Los Angeles and we’re still at a loss whether there is a legit frontrunner or not. Yes, that soothsayer walking leisurely on La Croisette four months ago may have nailed this season. So, far at least.
At the top of of current pile of contenders is Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which won the Palme d’Or and had vocal fans in both Telluride and Toronto. That is except for the small group of naysayers who say The Academy won’t pick a movie with such explicit sexual content (maybe I need to rewatch “Crash” and “American Beauty”). Then there is Jacques Audiard’s unconventional musical “Emilia Perez.” That movie won two awards at Cannes (a rarity) and is counting on global voters and actors’ branch support to take it to the top. That being said, only one international film has won Best Picture so far, “Parasite,” a cultural phenomenon in theaters. And while there has been a ton of love for “Perez,” the movie is still somewhat polarizing for many.
And that leaves…well, that leaves lots and lots of question marks. Granted, five films have not screened for guilds or the media yet. Is there a potential consensus savior among them? We’re not so sure, but we also have no idea how the election will affect the race or whether another late addition will make the submission deadline. We might just need a lot more AMPAS members to see these movies. Imagine that.
Taking that into account, we are not preparated to rank the Best Picture prospects yet, but we’ve got categories. Catories that begin with…
THE UNSEEN
“Blitz”
Has Steve McQueen ever made a bad movie? “Widows” hive rise up and defend this man.
“Nosferatu”
Waiting. Intentionally.
“Gladiator II”
If it’s a blockbuster and competent, that may be enough when the only other big epic player is “Dune, Pt. II.”
“A Complete Unknown”
Searchlight is not releasing this movie last minute if they don’t think it has a legitimate shot for a Best Picture nomination. They do not throw movies against the wall and hope for the best. No siree.
“Here”
Richard Zemeckis’ recent track record isn’t great (it’s actually not good). But for Tom Hanks and Robin Wright to wait this long to reunite on screen, the movie must have been impressive on paper, right?
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FRONTRUNNERS
“Anora”
Can NEON win another Best Picture for Thierry Fremaux? Asking for a friend. (Also making a public appeal for NEON to release more official images because there have been just two since…May.)
“Emilia Perez”
A Netflix festival acquisition – from Cannes, no less – finally giving the streaming service a Best Picture winner would be all sorts of wild.
LIKELY IN
“Dune Part II”
The box office and critical reception should get it in. That’ll do pig. That’ll do.
“Conclave”
We knew it had a chance when we saw the preview at CinemaCon, but did we think it would be this safe a nominee in April? Spoiler: We did not.
“A Real Pain”
The sleeper that isn’t just in the hunt for Kiernan Culkin Supporting Actor and Jesse Eisenberg Screenplay noms. Searchlight needs to push the pedal to the medal with this one.
QUESTION MARKS BUT…
“The Brutalist”*
The pedigree, the reviews, the storyline, and the distributor all point to a nomination. It is, however, 3 hours and 35 minutes long. In all fairness, “Killers of the Flower Moon” is just 9 minutes shorter, but didn’t have an intermission either.
*Note: “The Brutalist” was not screened by publication.
“Challengers”
Will Amazon MGM Studios spend to get it a nomination? Will Luca be inclined to campaign both “Challengers” and “Queer”? Does he realize which has a better shot at major noms? Seriously, do you think he realizes which movie he has a better shot with?
“Civil War”
I cannot tell you how many writers, directors, and guild members will volunteer – unprompted – this thriller as one of the best movies they have seen this year. Do not sleep on it.
“Sing Sing”
A tearjerker featuring a Best Actor-winning performance from Colman Domingo should be a lock, right? Is the disappointing box office just a flawed release date strategy, or is it simply too hard to get people to see it in a theater?
“The Room Next Door”
Pedro Almodovar‘s Venice Golden Lion winner about euthanasia may be the safest comfort food nominee of the year. Did not have that on our 2024 bingo card.
“Saturday Night”
The box office will tell the tale and whether Sony Pictures has the energy to push a real awards campaign.
IN THE MIX
“Inside Out 2”
The comeback kid for Pixar, but the last time an animated film made the field of 10 was during the first Obama administration.
“Nickel Boys”
Strangely, there are very few reviews out of Telluride, but some strong notices (you can read our review here). The NYFF screenings will indicate whether RaMell Ross’s ambitious art film can follow in the footsteps of Oscar auteurs such as Terrence Malick, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, and Alfonso Cuaron.
“The Piano Lesson”
If Danielle Deadwyler is snubbed for a Best Actress nomination for this movie, we’re taking to the streets. Malcolm Washington’s adaptation of the August Wilson stage play is the most cinematic of the three we’ve seen, but will it play as well to Academy members as his father’s version of “Fences” did?
“Wicked”
Is it just a big commercial smash, or is it a big commercial smash that members will adore and want to vote for Best Picture?
“Hard Truths”
Funnier than you’d think and more poignant than any Mike Leigh movie in forever. Oh, and a stellar Marianne Jean-Baptiste performance worthy of a Best Actress statue.
“Babygirl”
Venice Best Actress winner Nicole Kidman is superb. The question is whether she can elevate the movie itself into a Best Picture nomination.
“September 5”
Paramount Pictures has decided to keep this taught, 90-minute thriller that many will appreciate, but will they love it enough to vote for it?
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
One of the best films of the year, arguably robbed of the Palme d’ Or. If NEON can get enough people to watch it, it could surprise.
LONGSHOTS
“Joker: Folie à Deux”
Maybe it will play better to AMPAS than the critics in Venice.
“Queer”
In a wide-open Best Actor race, Daniel Craig is right there. Maybe Production Design, too. Best Picture? I mean, sure.
“The Substance”
The last “horror” movie to earn a nomination was “Get Out” and that was more of a thriller than a traditional horror flick. It’s hard to imagine Coralie Fargeat‘s visionary work overcoming its bloody conclusion, but we’d scream for joy if it did.
“Nightbitch”
Cannot remember a prestige film where the reactions have split so down the middle based on gender.
“His Three Daughters”
Azazel Jacobs deserves an Original Screenplay nomination. Natasha Lyonne deserves a supporting actress nod. Carrie Coon deserves something! Hopefully, guild members will watch it when it drops on Netflix this month and keep its awards hopes alive.
“Maria”
The reaction to Pablo Larrain‘s latest has not improved since Venice. Angelina Jolie has a shot at a Best Actress nom, and a costumes nomination is possible, but…
“Kinds of Kindness”
Just hoping no one forgets how incredible Cannes Best Actor winner Jesse Plemmons was in this one. Wait, is it too late already?