‘Dark Universe:’ Is The ‘Mummy’ About To Receive A DCEU-Like Black Eye?

Universal’s Dark Universe could be in trouble before it even starts because things aren’t looking good for “The Mummy.” The cart before the horse approach to Hollywood is not really a novel concept any longer. Studios routinely reverse engineer their movies, announcing a release date first, often before a screenplay is finished let alone gone into production. This strategy keeps evolving, often for the worse. Now, studios carve out release dates for movies that don’t exist yet — mystery movies or ones they hope/intend to make. Sometimes they’re just claiming important release dates in the hopes they have a movie ready by that time, and everyone chases the success of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

READ MORE: The Mummy’ Producer Wants Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlize Theron & Angelina Jolie For Dark Universe

Everyone around town is desperate to duplicate that model, but an early spill can really hurt. Of course, the DCEU was most thirsty to get on that interconnected universe train and they received a nasty black eye for it.  Out of the gate, they face-planted with both “Batman v Superman: Dawn Of Justice” and “Suicide Squad.” It’s badly bruised their franchise narrative; of course “Wonder Woman” is the beginning of much-needed course correction, but “Justice League” will be the real DCEU test.

READ MORE: Too Big To Fail: What ‘Batman v Superman’ Tells Us About Blockbuster Culture

Now Universal’s interconnected Dark Universe could face the same problems. This weekend, the first film in the universe,  Alex Kurtzman’s “The Mummy” starring Tom Cruise, is tracking extremely soft and could open to a tepid $40 million — not the kind of numbers you want for the entry film in a major cinematic universe that now includes nine films/characters – Frankenstein (Javier Bardem), Dr. Jekyll (Russell Crowe), and the Invisible Man (Johnny Depp) and the just-announced-this-morning additions of The Hunchback, Dracula and the Phantom (Bride Of Frankenstein and The Wolfman is also in the works).

So, Universal, along with universe architect Alex Kurtzman (writer of the “Star Trek” series), have essentially announced their starting line-up and other first-round picks that will come off the bench eventually. But what happens when “The Mummy” takes it in the teeth and trips right when the game is beginning?

“The Mummy” tracking soft is perhaps not unexpected. While a global superstar, Tom Cruise doesn’t really chart at home in a spectacular way at the box office if you can believe it or not. The biggest opening of his career was “War Of The Worlds” at $64 million domestically. Even “Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation,” the biggest opener of the series, only grossed $55 million in its first weekend. Compare that to Marvel’s “Ant-Man” starring Paul Rudd which was released within two weeks of Cruise’s movie. Rudd’s not exactly a superstar and the Ant-Man character is far from a household name. Still, the Marvel movie opened to $57 million — it’s crazy to think that a movie starring Paul Rudd bested a movie lead by Tom Cruise. Brands are everything and star power perhaps not so much. At least not at home.

Overseas numbers are an entirely different story and Cruise has massive success internationally and the slant is often even higher than 70/30. ‘Rogue Nation’ earned $487 million overseas in 2015—71% more than its 28% domestic haul of $195 million. Cruise’s sci-fi actioner, “Oblivion” was essentially a flop; an $125 million budget vs. $286 million global haul. But it’s indicative of Cruise’s success overseas: a 70/30 split in favor of the global audience (“Edge Of Tomorrow” had a massive 73/27% split).

If history is any indication, “The Mummy” opens to $40 million and taps out at a dismal $89 million domestically (that’s close to “Oblivion” which launched with $37 million). So, it’s up to international audiences for “The Mummy” to show up and a 70/30 split puts the movie at a generous $200 million internationally, which means it might not touch $300 million worldwide. This would be debilitating to Universal and nearly franchise killing if they hadn’t already invested so much in announcing the series and all its lead actors.

But if I were Universal, I’d be worried about a total haul under $300 million. The forecast for “The Mummy” could go as low as $35 million this weekend, especially if it takes a critical beating, and “Wonder Woman” will easily best for the top spot at the box office. Let’s also keep in mind that Cruise’s last film, “Jack Reacher: Never Go Back” was a series killer and died on the vine with a ruinous $162 million worldwide. Those kinds of numbers would be devastating to Dark Universe, but at this point it would need to trudge forward for at least one film (“The Bride Of Frankenstein” is already slated to open on February 14, 2019). But if this kind of disaster befalls Uni’s new franchise, you’re going to see some studios act a little more cautiously instead of announcing an eight-film series before the first one has even arrived in theaters. An ambitious, longtail game plan may sound impressive, but the tail leading the dog doesn’t seem like the best recipe for success.