If you think the Creative Arts Emmy Ceremonies don’t matter when it comes to the Primetime Emmy Awards, think again. FX’s “Shōgun” made history over two nights this past weekend. Not only did the now ongoing series make history with the most wins by any Drama Series in one year, but it’s already won more Emmy statues in one year for any series, ever. And on Sunday night it could potentially win six more including the coveted Drama Series Emmy itself. FX chairman John Landgraf made a massive and expensive bet on adapting an almost 40-year-old novel and it’s more than paid off. But, there are many more categories to consider.
There is no doubt that FX’s other big player, “The Bear,” is suffering some industry fatigue following the release of its third season in June, but Television Academy voters aren’t quite ready to throw in the towel yet. Creator Christopher Storer saw the second season pick up seven Emmy statues during the Creative Arts Emmys including both Guest Actress and Actor statues for Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon Bernthal. That’s a huge indicator that the acting branch, one of the largest voting blocks in the TV Academy is still behind the show. It was not so great news for “Hacks,” a legitimate threat, which went scoreless at the Creative Arts. That being said, the Max series and Jean Smart are still the favorites for Best Actress in a Comedy Series.
The big drama of the night may come down to, of all categories, the Outstanding Reality Competition Series race. At the Creative Arts, “The Traitors” made history as Alan Cumming ended RuPaul Charles’ eight-year streak in the Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program category. Can the Peacock streaming hit take the top prize away from “Drag Race”? The MTV/Paramount staple has won it five out of the last six years. It also dominated the nominations taking 10 to just “The Traitors” four. Will there be a split vote? Will “Drag Race” hold on after going win-less at the Creative Arts? It may be the most suspenseful moment of the night. Or not.
Oh, and, as our predictions below will reveal, when it comes to the Limited Series races, it’s “Baby Reindeer” all the way. Except for Jodie Foster and Jonathan Bailey. Maybe.
Keeping all that in mind, here are our final predictions for each category.
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Best Drama Series
The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Shogun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
Who Will Win: “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: “Shōgun”
Upset: None
Lowdown: At this point, if “Shōgun” lost it would be one of the greatest awards upsets – any awards show – of all time. And, no, that’s not an exaggeration.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Anna Sawai (Shōgun, FX)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown, Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Who Will Win: Anna Sawai , “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Upset: Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Lowdown: If Sawai somehow loses, the field is sort of wide open. Coon, Staunton, and Aniston all have a shot.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba (Hijack, Apple TV+)
Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Walton Goggins (Fallout, Prime Video)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses, Apple TV+)
Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun, FX)
Dominic West (The Crown, Netflix)
Who Will Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Upset: Walton Goggins, “Fallout” or Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Lowdown: The only genuine threat to Sanada is Goggins, a beloved figure in the industry. The former campaigned just enough that the “Shōgun” wave should get him to the winner’s circle.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown, Netflix)
Greta Lee (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Lesley Manville (The Crown, Netflix)
Karen Pittman (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Holland Taylor (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Who Will Win: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Who Should Win: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Upset: Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Lowdown: With no one from“Shōgun” in this category, it would be surprising if Debicki doesn’t win after taking a SAG Award for the performance in February.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun, FX)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Takehiro Hira (Shōgun, FX)
Jack Lowden (Slow Horses, Apple TV+)
Jonathan Pryce (The Crown, Netflix)
Who Will Win: Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Upset: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Lowdown: Crudup won this category in 2020 but lost on his second nomination in 2023. It’s possible Asano could lose, but it would be a surprise if the “Morning Show” actor won over one of the most acclaimed acting performances of the year.
Best Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max)
Hacks (HBO/Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Who Will Win: “The Bear”
Who Should Win: “Hacks”
Upset: “Hacks”
Lowdown: Keep the faith “Hacks” hive. Your time may come in 2025.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear, FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs, FX)
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Who Should Win: Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Short is deserving competition, but his vote gets siphoned off with co-star Martin in the category. White will take this in a heartbeat. It will be hard for him to look genuinely surprised.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear, FX)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
Maya Rudolph (Loot, Apple TV+)
Jean Smart (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale, Apple TV+)
Who Will Win: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Who Should Win: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Upset: Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Lowdown: Edebiri, who won this award for 2023, has a better shot than many think, but Smart hasn’t lost it for “Hacks” yet. Plus, everything she’s gone through over the past two years will make it hard for members not to anoint her once again. (Oh, and she’s super deserving too).
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce (The Bear, FX)
Paul W. Downs (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear, FX)
Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live, NBC)
Who Will Win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Who Should Win: Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” or Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Upset: Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Lowdown: If there is any acting category ripe for an upset it might be this one. Moss-Bachrach should repeat, but James Williams and Yang have a legitimate shot to make things interesting.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Carol Burnett (Palm Royale, Apple TV+)
Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear, FX)
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building, Hulu)
Who Will Win: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Who Should Win: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” or Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Upset: Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale”
Lowdown: The “Hacks” love should win out here with Einbinder winning her first Emmy statue. If not, watch out for living Emmy legend and cultural icon Burnett to add an eighth statue to her mantle.
Best Limited or Anthology Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO/Max)
Who Will Win: “Baby Reindeer”
Who Should Win: “Fargo”
Upset: “True Detective: Night Country”
Lowdown: Can “Ripley” or “Night Country” pull it out from under “Reindeer”? I mean, sure? But that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers, Showtime)
Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Jon Hamm (Fargo, FX)
Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)
Andrew Scott (Ripley, Netflix)
Who Will Win: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Who Should Win: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Upset: Andrew Scott, “Ripley”
Lowdown: Gadd is the easy pick here. Scott has a very outside chance at the upset.
Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple TV+)
Juno Temple (Fargo, FX)
Sofía Vergara (Griselda, Netflix)
Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, FX)
Who Will Win: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Who Should Win: Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Upset: Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Lowdown: Foster is expected to take her first Emmy Award after 3 previous Primetime and 2 Daytime Emmy Award nominations and finally be halfway to EGOT. That being said, the industry loves “Lessons.” If they were ever going to reward it, it might just be for Larson here.
Best Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jonathan Bailey (Fellow Travelers, Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Sympathizer, HBO/Max)
Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Lamorne Morris (Fargo, FX)
Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple TV+)
Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, FX)
Who Will Win: Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Who Should Win: Robert Downey, Jr., “The Sympathizer”
Upset: Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”
Lowdown: Showtime and Paramount+ should have something to celebrate as Bailey, a star ascendant, should win this. If there is an upset, it will either be industry favorite Downey, Jr. or a posthumous win for Williams.
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Dakota Fanning (Ripley, Netflix)
Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge, Hulu)
Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Aja Naomi King (Lessons in Chemistry, Apple TV+)
Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, FX)
Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Who Will Win: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Who Should Win: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Upset: None
Lowdown: If Gunning doesn’t win this, it’s a massive, massive upset.
Best Directing for a Drama Series
Stephen Daldry (The Crown, Netflix)
Mimi Leder (The Morning Show, Apple TV+)
Hiro Murai (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Frederick E.O. Toye (Shōgun, FX)
Saul Metzstein (Slow Horses, Apple TV+)
Salli Richardson-Whitfield (Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, HBO/Max)
Who Will Win: Frederick E.O. Toye, “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: Hiro Murai, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Upset: Stephen Daldry, “The Crown”
Lowdown: Toye and “Shōgun” should easily win this, but Murai and Daldry could make it interesting.
Best Directing for a Comedy Series
Randall Einhorn (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Christopher Storer (The Bear, FX)
Ramy Youssef (The Bear, FX)
Guy Ritchie (The Gentlemen, Netflix)
Lucia Aniello (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Mary Lou Belli (The Ms. Pat Show, BET)
Who Will Win: Christopher Storer, “The Bear”
Who Should Win: Lucia Aniello, “Hacks”
Upset: Ramy Youssef, “The Bear”
Lowdown: Storer in a heartbeat, no doubt.
Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Weronika Tofilska (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Noah Hawley (Fargo, FX)
Gus Van Sant (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, HBO/Max)
Millicent Shelton (Lessons In Chemistry, Showtime)
Steven Zaillian (Ripley, Netflix)
Issa López (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Who Will Win: Steven Zaillian, “Ripley”
Who Should Win: Issa López, “True Detective: Night Country”
Upset: Wronika Tofilska, “Baby Reindeer”
Lowdown: This is perhaps one of the tightest races of the night. In theory, Tofilska should benefit from a “Baby Reindeer” wave, but our gut instinct tells us the directors reward Zaillian, a previous nominee, for his “Ripley” vision. López, who charmed everyone on the campaign trail, could also take it for the direction of “Night Country” which was often more compelling than her scripts.
Best Writing for a Drama Series
Peter Morgan, Meriel Sheibani-Clare (The Crown, Netflix)
Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Graham Wagner (Fallout, Prime Video)
Francesca Sloane, Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks (Shōgun FX)
Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente (Shōgun, FX)
Will Smith (Slow Horses, Apple TV+)
Who Will Win: Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente, “Shōgun”
Who Should Win: Rachel Kondo, Caillin Puente, “Shōgun”
Upset: Francesca Sloane, Donald Glover, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” Rachel Kondo, Justin Marks, “Shōgun”
Lowdown: Kondon and Puente wrote episode 9 of “Shōgun,” the tragic climax of the series “Crimson Sky.” We’d expect that of all the branches, the writing branch voters would be smart enough to realize that was a superior episode than the pilot but…wonders never cease.
Best Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Charlie Brooker (Black Mirror, Netflix)
Noah Hawley (Fargo, FX)
Ron Nyswaner (Fellow Travelers, Showtime)
Steven Zaillian (Ripley, Netflix)
Issa López (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Who Will Win: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Who Should Win: Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Upset: Steven Zaillian, “Ripley”
Lowdown: Gadd should leave the Peacock Theater with three Emmy Awards in hand. This will be one of them.
Best Writing for a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Christopher Storer (The Bear, FX)
Meredith Scardino, Sam Means (Girls5eva, Netflix)
Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Chris Kelly, Sarah Schneider (The Other Two, HBO/Max)
Jake Bender, Zach Dunn (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
Who Will Win: Christopher Storer, “The Bear”
Who Should Win: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, “Hacks”
Upset: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky, “Hacks”
Lowdown: Maybe Aniello, Downs, and Statsky upset the mighty “Bear”? Maybe? If you’re in Vegas, I’d still bet on Storer.
Scripted Variety Series
Last Week Tonight (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Who Will Win: “Last Week Tonight”
Who Should Win: Neither
Upset: …um, “Saturday Night Live”
Lowdown: This is getting silly. A category where only two shows qualify? Why are we doing this Television Academy? Anyway, “Saturday Night Live” took six wins at the Creative Arts Emmys, but that probably won’t help it take down the John Oliver Emmy favorite.
Best Talk Series
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Who Will Win: “The Daily Show”
Who Should Win: “The Daily Show”
Upset: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
Lowdown: The return of Jon Stewart has breathed new life into “The Daily Show.” Even if it’s just once a week. The lack of competition from “Last Week Tonight” means “The Late Show” could take the trophy, but the Comedy Central staple should duplicate “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah’s” win last year.
Best Reality Competition Series
The Amazing Race (CBS)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Traitors (Peacock)
The Voice (NBC)
Who Will Win: “The Traitors”
Who Should Win: “The Traitors” or “RuPaul’s Drag Race”
Upset: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”
Lowdown: Nothing lasts forever, but then again, “Drag Race” could make a comeback in 2025. They’ve already done it once.
The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards will be aired live on Sunday, Sept 15 at 5 PM PT / 8 PM ET on ABC.