With July just around the corner, it’s time for the summer movie showdown moviegoers have been waiting for: Greta Gerwig‘s “Barbie” versus Christopher Nolan‘s “Oppenheimer.” And Hollywood already has speculations on which of those films will come out on top on their opening weekend. Deadline reports that Warner Bros. expects “Barbie” to rake in at least $80 million in its first three days, possibly even $100 million. “Oppenheimer” on the other hand? Right now, Universal thinks it’ll make between $40-50 million.
And combined with “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” being in its second weekend, Hollywood speculates that July 21-23 will mark a $200 million box office weekend for the industry. Christopher McQaurrie‘s spy pic with Tom Cruise opens the weekend before, with Paramount anticipating a franchise-best opening for that film. But another thing to consider: McQuarrie’s film and Nolan’s latest will be battling it out over IMAX screens, which may dent their box office numbers. But along with “Barbie,” these three movies making $200 million in one weekend isn’t an outlandish prospect.
Warner Bros.’s confidence in “Barbie” stems from its pre-sales tracking better than Disney‘s “The Little Mermaid” did on the weekend of its release. That film made $95.5 million on its Memorial Day weekend opening. But with “Barbie” targeting a slightly broader female demographic, its studio thinks Gerwig’s film will surge past “The Little Mermaid” in advance ticket sales. The number to beat there? $19 million, with Friday/preview day numbers of $38.1 million.
As for “Oppenheimer,” Deadline quotes on distribution insider as saying that movie is ” as much male and older as “Barbie” is female and younger.” Nolan’s last two pics aren’t the greatest basis of comparison for box office numbers. “Tenet” hit theaters on Labor Day weekend amid the COVID-19 pandemic, so its opening numbers were low at just $20.5 million. Meanwhile, Nolan’s 2017 film “Dunkirk” opened its first weekend at $50.5 million, basically where Universal thinks “Oppenheimer” will top out when it opens. So that’s not a huge pull on opening weekend like one of Nolan’s blockbusters, but still decent.
Of course, speculation like this always needs a grain of salt alongside it. But by summer’s end, expect one of the three blockbusters hitting theaters in July to overtake “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” as 2023’s highest-grossing film.
