When the news hit that WarnerMedia was shifting its entire 2021 WB film slate to debut on HBO Max and in theaters on the same days, the industry gasped. People were shocked that one of the biggest studios in the world was making such a bold move and seemingly setting up the 2021 box office for another disappointing, disastrous year. But folks were confused where this decision was coming from, with many pointing to the new WarnerMedia bosses, AT&T as the driving force behind the move. And in a new interview with The Washington Post (video below), AT&T CEO John Stankey talks about the decision and why it’s the best possible thing for his subsidiary.
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Stankey discussed the news quite heavily and all the reasons why it makes sense to release more than a dozen high-profile films on HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously. And one of the biggest factors is the result of all the delays and the closing of all the cinemas for the better part of 2020.
“When we think about the dynamic that’s happening with everybody who’s making good theatrical content right now, it’s kind of creating this big bubble,” Stankey said. “Once we see that the consumer is ready to come back into a theater, if all of a sudden everybody releases their inventory, then that’s not going to be a good thing either because there’s only a certain amount of theatergoing that the population is going to do at any one time.”
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He’s not wrong. If you look at the schedule for 2021, it’s stacked with major films, almost on a week-to-week basis. In a business that goes to great lengths not to cannibalize each other and give competition room, this could be a nightmare that results in lower totals for everyone. But there’s also the fact that people just aren’t even going to the cinemas right now and might not until the second half of next year.
“Our data would suggest that large numbers of customers are not going to feel comfortable, even if they’re movie lovers, doing that at any time in the middle part of [2021],” he explained. “We’re going to be well into the late part of next year before we see infection rates and the population as a whole gaining the confidence to be out more dynamically in society and return to doing things like going to a theater to sit down for a two-hour movie. So we just think this is appropriate for this moment in time and this circumstance and we’re lucky as a business to have invested in a streaming platform where we can have the option of doing both and letting consumers choose.”
No matter which reason you choose for why AT&T and WarnerMedia made the decision they did, the result speaks for itself. Movie theaters in the United States are going to suffer. There are just no two ways around it. But even still, Stankey thinks cinemas are here for good and even if they do change or reduce in numbers, there is a place for the theater experience in society.
“I think movie theaters continue to have a role moving forward in society,” he said. “They’re an experience for the right kind of content that people are going to want to continue to have. But look, storytelling on scripted content is getting better and better and better. The experience of watching that content at home in comfortable surroundings, with large screens, and having the convenience of watching it when you want to watch it is getting better and better. So, there’s no question that we’re going to see consumer behavior shifts and those are going to sustain themselves.”
As for “the end” of movie theaters, Stankey doesn’t believe that’s the case at all. Instead, WarnerMedia’s announcement was “another day in a string of data points that’s heading in particular directions.” Basically, WarnerMedia didn’t pull the trigger, but it definitely is one of the bullets. Sigh.