The fact that Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” won the People’s Choice Award at the 2016 Toronto International Film Festival is going to be something of a relief for the studio behind it, Lionsgate. But it’s not about being a predictor to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, because as much as TIFF wants to position it that way, the award really doesn’t indicate that at all. It’s about box office.
[Before we get in too deep, a quick note about the award itself. Having attended TIFF for the past 12 years, it’s still unclear how this award is determined. Is it by actual number of votes? Is it by percentage from each screening? Some movies screen in huge venues multiple times, and others premiere in slightly smaller theaters and then get relegated to multiplex-style venues for their additional public screenings. That’s not to rain on the winner’s parade, but even longtime Canadian media will shrug their shoulders when asked how it really works. So keep that in mind.]
Lionsgate knows that “La La Land” plays well to audiences. Their testing months before the film opened Venice told them that. What’s more difficult is convincing audiences to actually go to the theaters to see a movie that looks like a ’50s musical. That might seem silly to you. “Who wouldn’t see Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in a movie together?” Both are popular stars, but they also aren’t at a point in their careers where their names above the title just open movies. You can look at the recent results of any of their recent releases — including “Gangster Squad” where they both starred — to see that.
It goes without saying that “La La Land” is going to attract the cinephiles on opening weekend. It’s even going to pull in some older moviegoers who are entranced by the vintage marketing look Lionsgate is going for and are excited about the reviews. Hell, that style might even get the Brooklyn hipsters into theaters. And, in theory, the New York and Los Angeles limited release should have a huge per-screen average even if it’s the first shopping weekend after Thanksgiving (not always the best weekend to roll out). When it expands wide, it needs more than a ton of publicity from awards and nominations to make it a “must see” (book it). Just as important is the positive word of mouth from the limited release and the ton of promo screenings Lionsgate will no doubt stage across the country. The studio knew in their controlled testing environment that would happen. TIFF now gives them a real-world result against formidable competition including “Lion” and the movie everyone at one time thought would win the honor, “The Birth Of A Nation.” Sources say “La La Land” cost over $50 million, so considering the cost of a major winter release campaign along with an Oscar campaign, the studio has to be hoping for at least $150 million worldwide. And that’s why this TIFF win will make the distribution and marketing execs sleep a bit easier this week, and that’s certainly a good thing because movie fans want studios to make more movies like “La La Land.”
As for Oscar, if the People’s Choice Award proves anything, it’s that it’s a slight indicator for landing a Best Picture nomination, not necessarily the win. Three films have won the Academy’s top honor after taking the People’s Choice Award the previous eight years (“Slumdog Millionaire,” “The King’s Speech” and “12 Years A Slave”), but “Spotlight,” “Argo,” and “The Artist” did not (“Birdman” notably skipped Toronto two years ago, and “The Hurt Locker” had already been released). “Room” won last year and the People’s Choice Award likely made the mainstream media take it seriously and put it on the radar for voters who actually go to screenings (screener watchers, the core Academy voters, probably forgot it ever happened).
READ MORE: ‘La La Land’ Starring Emma Stone & Ryan Gosling Is An Absolute Triumph [Venice Review]
Moreover, let’s take a quick look at this year’s second and third place films, shall we? The first runner-up, “Lion,” actually justified this pundit’s take that The Weinstein Company drama is a tearjerker and will play to audiences even if it doesn’t become a legit awards player (not a bad thing for a company that could use an art-house hit). Somewhat surprisingly, Mira Nair’s “Queen Of Katwe” was the second runner up. Does Walt Disney Studios think that quality film is a genuine Best Picture player? Perhaps Lupita Nyong’o lands a Best Supporting Actress nod, but unless it becomes something of a box-office phenomenon, a Best Picture nod seems unlikely.
Simply put, “La La Land” is going to be a Best Picture nominee. That was expected after Venice and confirmed in Telluride where actual Academy members see movies. Toronto is a nice marketing win that just made the bean counters sleep a bit easier. There is one other award handed out that deserves some attention, however.
After finally realizing the lack of a juried award was hurting its credibility, the festival’s completed just the second installment of a juried “Platform” program this year and it’s already making some waves. The three-person jury of Brian De Palma, Mahamat-Saleh Haroun and Zhang Ziyi awarded the Toronto Platform Prize to Pablo Larraín’s “Jackie.” While the Jackie Kennedy drama is a fantastic film, it’s a somewhat surprising pick over Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight,” especially as the TIFF press release included the quote, “Our decision was unanimous. We found one film that combined an extraordinary script with precise direction and unforgettable acting.” Considering “Moonlight” is arguably the best-reviewed movie of the year and that two of the jurors are Academy members, team A24 has to be somewhat disappointed with this result. Fox Searchlight, on the other hand, may start to take those Best Picture nomination dreams much more seriously.
