As the SAG-AFTRA strike nears 100 days, many wonder how long the guild and the AMPTP will be at odds and how badly it will affect next year’s theatrical release calendar. Only a handful of Fall 2023 releases got pushed to 2024 so far, the big one being Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two,” but it’s 2024 releases halted mid-production that are most concerning. How long before studios shift their 2024 release calendars because things are not being shot?
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That may be starting right now, as Deadline reports that Marvel Studios has pulled “Deadpool 3” from its May 3, 2024 release date. That’s big news for a couple of reasons. For one, the Shawn Levy film was Marvel‘s first theatrical release for next year, kicking off the summer movie season with a coveted box office weekend. And it’s also the most recent of many schedule maneuverings for the studio this year. With “Deadpool 3” out of the mix and Marvel known for holding onto its release dates, what could replace the sequel with Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman for May 3 next year?
The answer may be an MCU entry that originally held the spot before Marvel shuffled its schedule back in June: “Captain America: New World Order.” Unlike “Deadpool 3,” that film has finished shooting and is currently in post-production. But if Marvel moves “New World Order” to May, then what will take its place at its current July 26, 2024 release date? That’s where things get tricky, as the studio doesn’t have any other movies in post-production right now, and the SAG-AFTRA strike has everything else upcoming on hiatus.
That almost certainly means Marvel will make even more release date changes before 2023 draws to a close. If the guild strike resolves itself soon, then maybe “Deadpool 3” wraps production in time for December 20, 2024, the current release date for “Thunderbolts,” another MCU Phase 5 film. Or Marvel could release Levy’s film in early November, a solid date for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” taking in $859.2 million at the global box office. The December date may make more sense, as pre-production on “Thunderbolts” was halted thanks to the start of the WGA strike.
Whatever the case, Marvel will move “Deadpool 3” to a place on its release schedule with maximum impact. After all, it’s the first MCU film for the Reynolds-led franchise after 20th Century Fox merged with Disney. And it’s also Reynolds and Jackman’s official entrance into the MCU, foretelling that more mutants and X-Men may be on the way in future MCU installments. Add in the film being the first R-rated MCU entry, and Levy’s movie is a premier event. And that means “Deadpool 3” is bound to be super-bankable, something Marvel needs after the relatively tepid box-office numbers of recent flims (and the dismal predictions for “The Marvels“). The previous two “Deadpool” movies made $1.56 billion worldwide: if “Deadpool 3” and its star power catch on with audiences, the sequel could potentially make close to that in one film.
But the SAG-AFTRA strike needs to resolve itself for answers to this speculation. At 97 days currently and no end in sight, there’s bound to be more schedule shake-ups coming, and soon. And with several Fall release, like “The Creator” and “Dumb Money,” not doing as well commercially due to actors not being able to promote the films, expect studios to take potential cash cows like “Deadpool 3” off their schedules to make sure they don’t lose even more money. So what movie will be postponed next? We’ll find out any day now.