This year. Just when you thought Hollywood and award season will take a breather after two years of dramatic twists and turns an earthquake hits the industry that has caused global aftershocks that aren’t going to subside anytime soon. The #MeToo movement saw prominent Oscar figures such as Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey and Brett Ratner (remember almost-Oscar producer Brett Ratner?) banished and framed a season where women said “Time’s Up” using red carpets everywhere as a means to turn the conversation from “What are you wearing?” to substantive issues that made many in corporate executive suites unusually nervous. It was often awkward, painful and never ending, but for real change to occur it is often awkward, painful and seemingly never ending. The Oscar telecast ratings might have hit historic lows, but no one and I mean no one is going to forget the events of the past five months.
Throughout this uproar new stars such as Timothée Chalamet emerged and familiar faces such as Greta Gerwig and Saoirse Ronan saw their careers take flight in new and exciting directions. Jordan Peele cemented himself as a true auteur. Mary J. Blige, Rachel Morrison and Dee Rees made history. Daniela Vega and “A Fantastic Woman” made history. Roger Deakins, Gary Oldman, Sam Rockwell and Guillermo del Toro both proved that if you wait long enough good things will come to those who deserve it. And Frances McDormand showed that you really can save your best speech for last.
As change came to the entertainment industry it was also fitting that some long held beliefs about how a film can win Best Picture came to an end (O.K, maybe that’s a stretch, but it’s a unique coincidence). We’ve reached the point where you probably don’t need a SAG ensemble nomination to win and releasing a movie at the beginning of December might not be the death of your Oscar winning hopes (more on both those subjects later). Other trends, however, should not be ignored. Significant BAFTA support may be more important than ever and that streak of films not winning with less than five nominations is now up to 85 straight years.
Ever year we compile thoughts on the past season in a “new rules” column. Some of them partially repeat from the year before or years prior, but they are lessons learned and are, hopefully, indicators of valuable trends to come. Shall we?
Telluride, Telluride, Telluride
One trend that didn’t end this season was that for the past eight years and nine of the past 1o years the Best Picture winner screened and/or premiered at the Telluride Film Festival. “The Shape of Water’s” official premiere was at Venice, where it took the Golden Lion, but it’s next screening was during the annual Labor Day fest which features a noteworthy number of Academy members as its patrons. Along with the media on hand taking their reactions, they create the buzz that spreads to other members informing of them of what to watch in the months ahead (even “Manchester by the Sea” screened there after playing Sundance seven months earlier). In fact, Telluride had two other Best Picture nominees this year that were world premieres; “Lady Bird” and “Darkest Hour.” Until this streak ends it’s the starting point for all serious Oscar conversations whether those that are unable to attend like it or not. Is that clear?
Is Dec. 1 technically in November?
One trend that did end this year was the streak of 12 straight years where a Best Picture winner wasn’t released in December. We thought that was going to end last ear with “La La Land,” but “Moonlight” (an October release) pleasantly surprised. “Shape of Water” opened in limited release on Dec. 1. The streak is now over, but we still think opening later than that is a dangerous game. There is a long recent list of films that couldn’t pull out a wing after opening in December despite seemingly strong Academy supporting including “The Revenant,” “The Big Short,” “Selma,” “Hidden Figures,” “American Sniper,” “American Hustle,” “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “Django Unchained,” just to mention a few. Plus, do evening screenings on Nov. 30 qualify as a November release anyway? In either case, bewaring the Ides of December (or later) still stands in our book.
If you have a great player there is always next year
You never know what can happen with a movie and how it will be received. What could become beloved one year might not play as strongly the next. You do have to wonder, however, what “Phantom Thread” could have been if released next fall. Paul Thomas Anderson reportedly pushed for the year-end opening and Focus Features went above and beyond for an incredible fast and furious campaign that truly began when it was able to screen over the Thanksgiving weekend. And while it was ignored by SAG voters it surprised with both a Best Director and Best Picture nomination. If there was more time to campaign could it have been a contender to win both those categories? (As the saying goes “You have to campaign to win in phase one.”) Focus certainly went for it with gutso, but with a little more time would it have resonated more? Ponder. That being said…
Never give up, never ever give up
Whether you were a pundit, a competing consultant, as studio executive or a member of the press, there was a long line of experts who thought “Darkest Hour” was DOA as a Best Picture nominee after its opening weekend. Granted, the Joe Wright directed drama did very well over the Thanksgiving holiday with a $43,000 per screen, but that wasn’t necessarily newsworthy compared to some of the other limited openings this fall let alone that holiday moviegoing period. And, if memory serves, some of the U.S. reviews had knocked its Metacritic down to under an almost must-have 70 for a Best Picture nod (it ended up over 75 once UK reviews came in a month or so later). Many simply dismissed it as a below-the-line and Best Actor play for Gary Oldman with other contenders more likely to find themselves in the Best Picture nomination circle. Sure, there was expected UK support, but could it really be enough to make a difference? Focus Features and its consulting team certainly thought so. They changed their print/online campaign and screened the hell out of it over the holiday break adding many more Q&A’s than initially planned. Also, it didn’t hurt that it became one of the must see movie for older, adult moviegoers over the Christmas, New Years and early January weekends earning $28 million by Jan. 7. Not only were they in, the movie went from also-ran to Best Picture nomination lock within the span of six weeks. Just a lesson for anyone in the game to never give up until voting is absolutely, completely and utterly over.
Don’t leave box office opportunities on the table
There has been something of a silly debate in the media over whether Sony Classics handled the marketing campaign for “Call Me By Your Name” effectively. What I find intriguing in all of this is without question every other independent distributor I’ve spoken to thinks they did not. From SPC’s perspective they no doubt are happy with “CMBYN” nods for Best Picture, Actor, Song and that Adapted Screenplay win. And, frankly, we are thrilled that James Ivory finally won an Oscar. The problem is they set themselves up for no more than that. And I would understand their frustration with the criticism. In their mind potentially hitting $20 million (and it might not) is a big win even if their strategy left up to $10-15 million in revenue (and moviegoers) on the floor. That being said, by limiting the box office potential (and we could write 3,000 words on how and why that happened if we had the space) it hampered the film’s ability to be considered a true Best Picture contender and to earn more key nominations. Box Office does matter when it comes to winning. Members pay attention. It might be a low threshold, but if you’ve been in theaters for over a month before nominations and are no longer part of the “hit” discussion, even in limited release, it hurts.
Someone needs to fix the SAG Awards nominating process
We’ve talked about it in years past. The SAG nominating committee often overlooks late arrivals and has broader taste than the Academy itself. And now, for the second year in a row, a film that didn’t win SAG won Best Picture. In fact, “Shape” wasn’t even nominated. To be fair, missing out on that nod was a huge surprise for Searchlight (and everyone else for that matter). The studio had even added a last minute “Shape” nom com screening before the voting deadline due to member demand. I actually moderated it and it was a packed screening with the audience going absolutely nuts for the movie. Strangely though, not only did “Shape” get snubbed in ensemble, but Octavia Spencer, seemingly a SAG favorite, didn’t make the Supporting Actress cut either. Not only did Spencer earn her third Oscar nomination, but “Shape” bucked a now ignorable trend of that “necessary” nomination to seal a Best Picture win. Should SAG screen their nominating committees more carefully? Probably. Will they? Unlikely. Does that mean SAG might be the least important of the big three guilds and studios should simply focus on the Academy’s Acting branch? We’ll let you figure that one out.
