Usually, it’s the Adapted Screenplay category that is super-competitive and the Original category that’s completely wide open. Well, the 2024 Original Screenplay has four somewhat likely nominees in Justin Triet and Arthur Harari’s script for “Anatomy of a Fall,” Celine Song‘s screenplay for “Past Lives,” David Hemingson’s 70’s nostalgia throwback “The Holdovers,” and Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s billion dollar tome for “Barbie.” Could one of those films not make the cut? Maybe, but awards watchers should pay attention to the very open fifth and remaining slot.
Hoping to make the field is Samy Burch‘s Black List selection, “May December”; Alex Convery’s crowd-pleasing true story “Air”; and Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer‘s collaboration for “Maestro.” Other potential players include Takuma Takasaki and Wim Wenders‘ script for “Perfect Days”; Emerald Fennell‘s Oscar winning-follow up, “Saltburn”; and even Wes Anderson’s screenplay for “Asteroid City.” Beyond those six players, the pickings are slim. Although there’s still time for a surprise…or two. [Updated Nov. 17]
LIKELY
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
David Hemingson, “The Holdovers”
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, “Barbie”
ALMOST THERE
Samy Burch, “May December”
Alex Convery, “Air”
Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer, “Maestro”
POSSIBLE
Takuma Takasaki, Wim Wenders, “Perfect Days”
Emerald Fennell, “Saltburn”
Wes Anderson, “Asteroid City”
LONGSHOTS
Sean Durkin, “The Iron Claw”*
Roger Ross Williams, David Teague “Cassandro”
David Scarpa, “Napoleon”
Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black, “Rustin”
Hayao Miyazaki, “The Boy and the Heron”
Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of the entertainment industry's most respected journalists and critics. Based in Los Angeles, he's the only current awards expert who previously worked on Oscar campaigns at a major movie studio. Over the years, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Vox, among others. He also co-founded the entertainment news site HitFix, which spawned a legion of influential Emmy and WGA Award-winning alumni.
