Pasek and Paul are going to be back to back Oscar nominees
It’s been an incredible 2017 for Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (aka Pasek and Paul). The songwriting duo won the Best Original Song Oscar, along with composer Justin Hurwitz, for “La La Land” jam “City of Stars” in February and their smash musical “Dear Evan Hansen” won six Tony Awards in June including Best Musical and Best Original Score. Now, they are back with songs for another original musical, “The Greatest Showman,” and having heard at least two tracks at CinemaCon (one of which can be heard in the film’s trailer) we can guarantee you they are going to be nominated again. And don’t be surprised if they win again too.
If “Get Out” doesn’t earn a Best Picture nod…
…you can expect a massive public outcry. There have been four horror movies nominated in recent history: “The Exorcist,” “Silence of the Lambs,” “The Sixth Sense” and, arguably, “Black Swan.” And three of those earned nod when there was just a maximum of five nominees. This year, Universal‘s critical and box office hit is an impressive mix of social commentary and bravura filmmaking that, in theory, should have strong support among the entire Academy membership. There is also the fact “Get Out” was released in February (“The Grand Budapest Hotel” was the earliest release to earn a nomination this decade and that was in March). If Jordan Peele‘s thriller doesn’t make the cut it will be seen as a step back for an organization that has done everything possible to increase diversity in its membership and the films and performances it recognizes since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Last year “Fences” and “Hidden Figures” both made the cut, but they were historical dramas that were easier for members to embrace than the “Straight Outta Compton” snub that contributed to #OscarsSoWhite (and that was a movie many pundits expected to earn a nod). We have no doubt Universal will wage a strong campaign across the board and critics groups will find a way to recognize the film to keep it in the public consciousness. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot of nervous stomachs on Oscar nomination morning though.
Even if This is one of the weakest Best Animated Film fields ever
Can you name three animated films you’ve seen so far this year that deserve an Oscar nod? Tough isn’t it? Last year found quality contenders such as “The Little Prince, “Finding Dory” and “Sing” failing to make the cut. This season we’re wondering if Pixar’s “Coco,” and maybe “Ferdinand,” are the only studio releases among the legit contenders. Is “The Boss Baby” gonna make the final five? (Don’t answer that). “Despicable Me 2” earned a nod, but will “Despicable Me 3”? If the first “The Lego Movie” didn’t make the cut how will “The Lego Batman Movie” or “The Lego Ninjago Movie”? (Talk about campaign confusion). “The Star” has a shot, but the animation looks insanely dated. As always, GKIDS has a number of contenders in the wings, but we’re pretty sure you can predict people calling this year’s nominees “an embarrassment” when all is said and done.
We probably already know two of the Makeup & Hairstyling nominees
If you’ve seen Kenneth Branagh’s mustache in the trailer for “Murder on the Orient Express” its clear that inspired piece of facial hair may have a life of its own. Moreover, there will be a massive push to recognize the hours of makeup Gary Oldman went under to transform into Winston Churchill in Joe Wright’s “Darkest Hour.” Who knows what we’ll find in blockbuster releases such as “Thor: Raganok,” “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” or “The Shape of Water,” but ‘Murder’ and ‘Darkest’ are pretty safe bets.
No, Michelle Pfeiffer isn’t getting a nomination Gay Film Twitter
With roles in two major prestige releases this fall, it’s likely sacrilege to even suggest the legendary Pfeiffer won’t somehow earn her fourth Oscar nomination. Hey, anything can happen, but word is the only real contending performance in Darren Aronofsky’s “mother!” is Jennifer Lawrence and Pfeiffer’s character in “Murder on the Orient Express” doesn’t seem likely to be the center of awards attention. Of course, we’ll be thrilled to be wrong. We’ve just seen these stars align before and it never results in a nomination (and we may also have some inside word).
Netflix will earn their first non-documentary Oscar nomination
The streaming service is gonna have a hard time convincing Academy members their films are the same as theatrical releases, but as they showed with “Beasts of No Nation” that won’t be a problem at all with the major guilds. Netflix has players such as “Mudbound,” “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)” and “Okja.” With a new publicity head arriving from Lionsgate fresh off the overall success of “La La Land” (outside of the Best Picture loss) and lessons learned from ‘Beasts’ we’d be stunned if “Mudbound” stars Carey Mulligan, Mary J. Blige or Jason Mitchell as well as “Meyerowtiz” legend Dustin Hoffman or, at worst, the visual effects team of “Okja” visual effect’s team don’t crack that ceiling for the media giant. Considering how tough the industry has been regarding how Netflix releases their films any non-doc nomination would be a huge win for the streaming service.
Denzel Washington is in the game again
Rumors are flying of a last minute addition of Dan Gilroy’s “Nightcrawler” follow up, “Roman Israel, Esq.,” to the Toronto International Film Festival. Sony Pictures has high awards hopes for ‘Israel’ including its star Denzel Washington who may be looking at back to back Best Actor nominations. Washington likely won’t campaign, but the early Nov. 3 release, presumed raves out of Toronto and screeners sent out before Thanksgiving could be all he needs for his eighth nomination (he has a nine as a producer of “Fences”). Our prediction? He’s got a great seat in the Dolby Theater again this March.
Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts and you’re own early predictions below.
