Awards season continues apace. The last few days have seen the LA Film Critics Circle going their own laudably individual route when it came to giving out the prizes, while the SAG mostly stuck to the established narrative, bar a few Jennifer Aniston-shaped curveballs.
Tomorrow brings fresh shocks and surprises with the arrival of the Golden Globe nominations. As ever, predicting the whims of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association—a hundred or so international junket journalists you haven’t heard of—is a tricky pastime, but we’ve taken a stab anyway. Below you’ll find our best guesses as to who’ll end up as nominees (in the film categories, anyway) at the announcements early tomorrow morning—take a look, make your own predictions in the comments, and come back tomorrow to find out who made the cut.
Best Original Song
"Lost Stars" from "Begin Again"
"Grateful" from "Beyond The Lights"
"Everything Is Awesome" from "The Lego Movie"
"Glory" from "Selma"
"Miracles" from "Unbroken"
The HFPA are more amenable to closing-credits numbers than the Academy, so look for the "Unbroken" and "Selma" songs to get in. "Begin Again" is probably the winner, "Everything Is Awesome" is too earworm-y too refuse, and perhaps through wishful thinking, we think "Beyond The Lights" takes the fifth slot as a consolation prize.
Best Original Score
"Birdman"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"The Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"The Theory Of Everything"
As with the Oscars, we’ll likely see at least two nods for Alexandre Desplat for "The Imitation Game" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" (a third for "Unbroken" feels more likely than it did now the film’s been seen), while relative newcomer Johan Johansson will make the cut for his stirring "Theory Of Everything" work. Past that, "Interstellar" and "Birdman" feel like the obvious candidates over "Gone Girl" and its ilk.
Best Animated Feature Film
"Big Hero 6"
"The Book Of Life"
"The Boxtrolls"
"How To Train Your Dragon 2"
"The Lego Movie"
The Globes are much less friendly towards more obscure GKids-style fair than the Academy, so expect a mainstream-only line-up. "The Lego Movie," "Big Hero 6," "The Boxtrolls," and "How To Train Your Dragon 2" are probably locked in, and we think that, despite flopping commercially, "The Book Of Life" will beat out "Rio 2" and "Penguins Of Madagascar" for the last slot.
Best Foreign Language Film
"Force Majeure"
"Ida"
"Leviathan"
"Two Days One Night"
"Wild Tales"
Again, there are fewer shocks in this category for the most part, with the biggest-names and most accessible films tending to land here. As such, look for the Polish, Russian, and Belgian movies as certainties, while the Argentinean one is right up the organization’s alley. The fifth slot’s likely a battle between Ruben Ostlund and Xavier Dolan, and we think the former will take it.
Best Screenplay
Alexander Dinerlaris, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Armando Bo – "Birdman"
Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness – "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Graham Moore – "The Imitation Game"
Paul Webb – "Selma"
Anthony McCarten – "The Theory Of Everything"
In the opposite of the way the Golden Globes goes elsewhere, there’s only one Screenplay category, pushing out fringe prospects like "Whiplash." "Birdman," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," and "The Imitation Game" seem like the strongest likelihoods, with "Boyhood," "Selma," and "The Theory Of Everything" close behind—we’d lean towards the latter two, but it could go a different way.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall – "The Judge"
Ethan Hawke – "Boyhood"
Edward Norton – "Birdman"
Chris Pine – "Into The Woods"
J.K Simmons – "Whiplash"
As ever, the supporting categories match up with the general awards favorites more closely, and you can expect Simmons, Norton, Hawke, and Duvall to return from their SAG nods. We could see Mark Ruffalo, Josh Brolin, or Tom Wilkinson in the fifth slot, but our money’s on "Into The Woods" standout Chris Pine.
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette – "Boyhood"
Laura Dern – "Wild"
Keira Knightley – "The Imitation Game"
Meryl Streep – "Into The Woods"
Emma Stone – "Birdman"
Again, expect the SAGs to show the way here for the most part, up to and including an absent Jessica Chastain, but our guess is that the guild’s baffling Naomi Watts nomination won’t be repeated, with Laura Dern stepping in instead.
Best Actor In A Drama
Steve Carell – "Foxcatcher"
Benedict Cumberbatch – "The Imitation Game"
Jake Gyllenhaal – "Nightcrawler"
David Oyelowo – "Selma"
Eddie Redmayne – "The Theory Of Everything"
With the genre divide moving Michael Keaton to Comedy and freeing up a slot in the tight race, Cumberbatch, Redmayne, and Oyelowo should all be safe, and we think Jake Gyllenhaal will make the cut for "Nightcrawler" too. We could see Jack O’Connell, Bradley Cooper, or even Brad Pitt in the fifth slot, but we think Steve Carell will get in, even if "Foxcatcher" doesn’t seem like the kind of film that the HFPA usually flock to.
Best Actress In A Drama
Jennifer Aniston – "Cake"
Felicity Jones – "The Theory Of Everything"
Julianne Moore – "Still Alice"
Rosamund Pike – "Gone Girl"
Reece Witherspoon – "Wild"
Oscar locks Jones, Moore, Pike, and Witherspoon are all safely making the final five here, but the last slot could go to Shailene Woodley, Hilary Swank, or Marion Cotillard. After her SAG win, and in what we hear is a warm reception to the film from the organization, we think Jennifer Aniston could turn up here in the end.
Best Actor In A Comedy or Musical
James Corden – "Into The Woods"
Ralph Fiennes – "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Michael Keaton – "Birdman"
Bill Murray – "St. Vincent"
Chris Rock – "Top Five"
As the token Oscar front-runner in this category, Michael Keaton is a mortal lock (and almost certainly takes the win). Ralph Fiennes should finally get some deserved awards love for "Grand Budapest Hotel," while we can’t see the HFPA passing up the chance to nominate Bill Murray. Some have Chris Pratt as a dark horse for ‘Guardians,’ but Joaquin Phoenix is more likely. Ultimately, though, we think the leftover slots go to Chris Rock and "Into The Woods" leads/future talk show host James Corden.
Best Actress In A Comedy or Musical
Amy Adams – "Big Eyes"
Emily Blunt – "Into The Woods"
Angelina Jolie – "Maleficent"
Keira Knightley – "Begin Again"
Jenny Slate – "Obvious Child"
Probably the most fascinating category this year, if only because there’s so little chance of crossover with most other awards bodies. Amy Adams is the sole performer here with a chance of an Oscar nod. Musical nominees Emily Blunt and Keira Knightley will join her, and though the film was neither a comedy or a musical, so will Angelina Jolie for "Maleficent." The last slot is probably between Rosario Dawson for "Top Five," Helen Mirren for "The Hundred Foot Journey," Jenny Slate for "Obvious Child," and Melissa McCarthy for "St. Vincent." It’s a tough one, but we think it’s between the last two, and we hope/think it’ll be Slate in the end.
Best Director
Ava DuVernay – "Selma"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – "Birdman"
Angelina Jolie – "Unbroken"
Richard Linklater – "Boyhood"
James Marsh – "The Theory Of Everything"
A tough category this year: Inarritu feels like the most solid of locks alongside Linklater, and unless the HFPA surprisingly reject "Selma," Ava DuVernay should join him. At least one of James Marsh or Morten Tyldum will be in there, but despite the lukewarm reception to the film, we’re expecting another nomination for the group’s darling, Angelina Jolie.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
"Boyhood"
"The Imitation Game"
"Selma"
"The Theory Of Everything"
"Unbroken"
Don’t expect the SAG "Selma" snub/absence to be repeated here—the HFPA have seen the movie, and reportedly fell hard for it. Beyond that, Oscar contenders "The Imitation Game," "Boyhood," and "The Theory Of Everything" should all be fine, which leaves one slot remaining, and "Whiplash," "Gone Girl," and "Unbroken" battling over it. Given the organization’s love for Angelina Jolie, we’re betting on the latter.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
"Birdman"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"Into The Woods"
"St. Vincent"
"Top Five"
Again, there are four movies close to locked here: big Oscar contender "Birdman," musical "Into The Woods" (big musicals always hit this category, though "Annie" is less likely, we imagine), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," and "St. Vincent," which the Weinsteins have been pushing hard. CBS Films had a surprise here a few years back with "Salmon Fishing In The Yemen," so don’t rule out a shock appearance from "Pride," while "Big Eyes" and "Begin Again" could appear, or even "Inherent Vice" (which isn’t very HFPA-y), but our money’s on Chris Rock‘s "Top Five," which we hear went down well.
