Hope springs eternal, right? Or does it? The Academy Awards seem pretty pre-ordained right now, and the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards are a very strong augur on how things will go down the night of Oscars. But, holding out for some hope, instead of “The Big Short,” which is now the frontrunner to win Best Picture, “Spotlight” took the well-deserved Best Ensemble Award. Is it a one-to-one translation? Not really, and as some pundits have observed, the SAG winner for Best Ensemble has only gone on to win Best Picture 48% of the time in the history of the institution. Not even quite 50/50 odds. So, sorry, it’s not quite a huge blow to “The Big Short”’s momentum, and the Adam McKay-directed financial traumedy is still probably your Oscar frontrunner. Though if you’re like me, you’re hoping the much-more-deserving (IMO, anyhow), “Spotlight” is able to snatch the win in a come-from-behind narrative.
A nice win for @SpotlightMovie, but only 48% of Best Cast winners go on to earn the #Oscar for Best Picture. #SAGAwards
— Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) January 31, 2016
Elsewhere, SAG unfolded as expected. Leonardo DiCaprio took Best Actor for “The Revenant,” as he will on Oscar night; Brie Larson scored the Best Actress prize for “Room,” which will also be replicated come Academy night; and Alicia Vikander won Best Supporting Female for “The Danish Girl,” which is also likely how it go down a few weeks from now.
The biggest winner of the night not nominated? Sylvester Stallone. Say what? Well, with Idris Elba taking Best Supporting Actor for “Beasts Of No Nation,” and Elba not nominated for an Oscar — thanks to #OscarSoWhite prejudice, many would allege — that leaves Stallone with little to no frontrunning competition. The award already looked like it was Sly’s for admittedly strong and soulful turn in “Creed,” and now it feels like a fait accompli lock akin to DiCaprio with “The Revenant.” But at least Elba had a killer night, winning twice, also for "Luther" in the Best Male Actor In A Miniseries Or TV Movie category.
Speaking of, the SAG side of TV made Oscar seem additionally foolish with all its progressive wins ("Transparent") and nods for diversity ("Luther," "Orange Is The New Black," etc.).
READ MORE: Consider This: Is #OscarsSoWhite A Symptom Of Movies Losing (Even More) Ground To TV?
So that’s it, really. If you’re a betting person, you basically know your four Oscar winners in the acting categories. As we’ve suggested, Best Picture isn’t quite so clear, but if I were laying down a wager, I’d still go for “The Big Short.” Winners below.
Best Ensemble – Motion Picture
WINNER: “Spotlight”
"Beasts Of No Nation”
“The Big Short”
"Straight Outta Compton”
“Trumbo"
Male Actor In A Leading Role – Motion Picture
WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”
Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”
Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl”
Female Actor In A Leading Role – Motion Picture
WINNER: Brie Larson – “Room”
Cate Blanchett – “Carol”
Helen Mirren – "Woman In Gold"
Saoirse Ronan – “Brooklyn”
Sarah Silverman – "I Smile Back"
Male Actor In A Supporting Role – Motion Picture
WINNER: Idris Elba – “Beasts Of No Nation”
Christian Bale – "The Big Short"
Mark Rylance – “Bridge Of Spies”
Michael Shannon – "99 Homes"
Jacob Tremblay – “Room”
Female Actor In A Supporting Role – Motion Picture
WINNER: Alicia Vikander – “The Danish Girl”
Rooney Mara – “Carol”
Helen Mirren – "Trumbo"
Rachel McAdams – “Spotlight”
Kate Winslet – “Steve Jobs”
Male Actor In A Comedy Series
WINNER: Jeffrey Tambor – "Transparent"
Ty Burrell – "Modern Family"
Louis CK – "Louie"
William H. Macy – "Shameless"
Jim Parsons – "The Big Bang Theory"
Female Actor In A Comedy Series
WINNER: Uzo Aduba – "Orange Is The New Black"
Edie Falco – "Nurse Jackie"
Ellie Kemper – "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – "Veep"
Amy Poehler – "Parks & Recreation"
Comedy Ensemble
WINNER: "Orange Is The New Black"
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Key & Peele"
"Modern Family"
"Transparent"
"Veep"
Male Actor In A Drama Series
WINNER: Kevin Spacey – "House Of Cards"
Peter Dinklage – "Game Of Thrones"
Jon Hamm – "Mad Men"
Rami Malek – "Mr. Robot"
Bob Odenkirk – "Better Call Saul"
Female Actor In A Drama Series
WINNER: Viola Davis – "How To Get Away With Murder"
Claire Danes – "Homeland"
Julianna Margulies – "The Good Wife"
Maggie Smith – "Downton Abbey"
Robin Wright – "House Of Cards"
Drama Ensemble
WINNER: "Downton Abbey"
"Game Of Thrones"
"Homeland"
"House Of Cards"
"Mad Men"
Male Actor In A Miniseries Or TV Movie
WINNER: Idris Elba – "Luther"
Ben Kingsley – "Tut"
Ray Liotta – "Texas Rising"
Bill Murray – "A Very Murray Christmas"
Mark Rylance – "Wolf Hall"
Female Actor In A Miniseries Or TV Movie
WINNER: Queen Latifah – "Bessie"
Nicole Kidman – "Grace Of Monaco"
Christina Ricci – "The Lizzie Borden Chronicles"
Susan Sarandon – "The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe"
Kristen Wiig – "The Spoils Before Dying"
Stunt Ensemble – Motion Picture
WINNER: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
“Everest”
“Furious 7”
“Jurassic World”
“Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation”
Stunt Ensemble – Comedy Or Drama Series
WINNER: “Game Of Thrones”
“The Blacklist”
“Homeland”
“Marvel’s Daredevil”
“The Walking Dead”
