The members of the Screen Actors Guild are a quirky bunch. The entire SAG-AFTRA organization has a pool of 129,000 or so members that is widdled down to 2,500 or so volunteers who vote for the annual SAG Awards as the “nominating committee.” Sometimes they come to screenings, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes they watch screeners, sometimes they don’t. What we do know is they love Netflix. Really. In fact, it should be a constant theme when considering who will and who won’t be nominated for SAG honors this year.
On the film side, expect the membership to embrace the films they received screeners for or saw in theaters earlier rather than later. That should make semi-late arrivals such as “Vice” and “Mary Poppins Returns” slightly nervous in the ensemble categories. Moreover, if its a non-English performance? Well, those have been incredibly rare in the 24-year history of the SAGs so far.
Television nominations are sort of the flip side of the Golden Globes. SAG membership tends to reward the tried and true as opposed to the fresh, new contender out of the box (especially ones arriving in the Fall). That is unless it features a familiar face (Hello, Julia Roberts!) or was such a critical hit its impossible to ignore. Oh, and they love Netflix. Did we mention that?
Keeping all of this mind, here are some educated guesses on just who the SAG membership will honor tomorrow morning.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Likely
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Battling
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Ryan Gosling, “First Man”
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”
Robert Redford, “Old Man and the Gun”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
Lowdown: Who is the fifth? Have enough SAG nominating members really watched “First Reformed” or “At Eternity’s Gate”? Will they go with three-time nominee in this category, Ryan Gosling? Or will Lucas Hedges, who’s been nominated in some capacity for the past two years, earn another individual nod? Ponder.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Likely
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Battling
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Toni Collette, “Hereditary”
Viola Davis, “Widows”
Felicity Jones, “On the Basis of Sex”
Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
Lowdown: Glenn Close is a former winner and eight-time SAG nominee. She’s in. Lady Gaga, obviously, in. Olivia Colman, “should” be in. Melissa McCarthy “should” be in. That leaves the fifth slot. In theory, Emily Blunt should come on strong for “Mary Poppins Returns” but have enough members seen it? Viola Davis is a five-time winner and eight-time nominee. “Widows” has seemingly fallen from the awards season spotlight, but will Davis’ peers actually forget her this time around?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Likely
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Battling
Steve Carell, “Vice”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Michael B. Jordan, “Black Panther”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Lowdown: Out of the “Likely,” Timothee Chalamet is the first wildcard. Mahershala Ali, Sam Elliot and Richard E. Grant seem like locks. Sam Rockwell won last year and that may be enough for him to overshadow co-star Steve Carell. Adam Driver cracked the Globes supporting five, however, and if the actors were paying attention, that could give him a boost as well. Michael B. Jordan is the second wildcard. Many believed he was a shoo-in for a nomination months ago. Now? It’s not so clear.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Likely
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Battling
Claire Foy, “First Man”
Nicole Kidman, “Boy Erased”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Michelle Yeah, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Lowdown: Will Searchlight get both Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone in this category? Well, we definitely think Stone is safe. Claire Foy is already a two-time SAG winner for her work on “The Crown” and should not be underestimated. If not Weisz, then Nicole Kidman or Michelle Yeoh is your fifth.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Likely
“A Star is Born”
“Black Panther”
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
“Vice”
Battling
“Blackkklansman”
“Green Book”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Widows”
Lowdown: In theory, “A Star is Born” could be seen as just a two-fer, but that’s a big gap of logic if the nominating committee votes Sam Elliott in too. “Black Panther” just has too many well-respected actors to miss the cut, but its “super-hero” pedigree might hurt it. “The Favourite” could be snubbed, but the critical and box office success makes it hard for voters to ignore. “Crazy Rich Asians” may be too commercial, but it fits the broad “Big Sick,” “Straight Outta Compton,” “Hidden Figures” slot the past three years. And “Vice”? On paper it’s a lock, but as we noted, if not enough members have seen it…
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Likely
“Black Panther”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
Battling
“Deadpool 2”
“First Man”
“Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom”
“Widows”
Lowdown: Often a “prestige” film sneaks in here so don’t be surprised if “Widows” or “First Man” make the five.
