The Oscar nominations won’t even be revealed until Tuesday, but this is a big weekend if you believe major guild honors are key indicators of what movie will win Best Picture. The PGA Awards are handed out in a private ceremony on Saturday night, while the SAG Awards take place 24 hours later Sunday evening in a broadcast on TNT and TBS (the DGA Awards are not until February). Last year “Moonlight” made history as the only film this century to win the Best Picture Oscar without taking a key guild honor. Will another major contender find itself hoping to duplicate its success this March? Considering the changing dynamics of the Academy we don’t doubt it.
Snubs and Surprises of the 2018 SAG Awards nominations
Before we get into the predictions for each awards show it’s important to know a few things about each guild and why they aren’t exactly slam dunk Academy Award indicators. First, the SAG membership is mostly made up of actors who work in television more than movies. They love Netflix and the SAG Ensemble winner has only lined up with the eventual Best Picture winner 11 times over the 21 previous years the honor has been handed out.
Second, the PGA membership is made up of many “producers” who work not in film or narrative television, but in reality television and commercials. They tend to have much broader taste, in general, than AMPAS members (one reason “Deadpool” and “Wonder Woman” earned PGA film nods the past two years). That being said, they have a much better track record than SAG as their year-end theatrical film honor has lined up with Oscar 19 times over 28 years. Moreover, it predicted the Best Picture winner every year between 2008 and 2015. They missed out the past two years, but the trend may still be in effect.
Keeping that in mind, her are some predictions for both the 2018 PGA and SAG Awards.
PGA AWARDS
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:
“The Big Sick”
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel
“Call Me By Your Name”
Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito
“Dunkirk”
Producers: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan
“Get Out”
Producers: Sean McKittrick & Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Jason Blum, Jordan Peele
“I, Tonya”
Producers: Bryan Unkeless, Steven Rogers, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley
“Lady Bird”
Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill
“Molly’s Game”
Producers: Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal, Matt Jackson
“The Post”
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
“The Shape Of Water”
Producers: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Producers: Graham Broadbent & Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
“Wonder Woman”
Producers: Charles Roven & Richard Suckle, Zack Snyder & Deborah Snyder
Who Will Win: “The Shape of Water”
Who Should Win: “Call Me By Your Name”
Who Might Upset: “Get Out,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Lady Bird”
Lowdown: This is one of the toughest picks for this honor that I can remember. Our guess is “The Shape of Water” wins, but either “Three Billboards,” “Get Out” or “Lady Bird” could take it as well. It’s a serious pick ’em.
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
“The Boss Baby”
Producer: Ramsey Naito
“Coco”
Producer: Darla K. Anderson
“Despicable Me 3”
Producers: Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy
“Ferdinand”
Producers: Lori Forte, Bruce Anderson
“The Lego Batman Movie”
Producers: Dan Lin, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
Who Will Win: “Coco”
Who Should Win: “Coco”
Who Might Upset: Are you kidding me?
Lowdown: This is Pixar’s all the way.
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures:
“Chasing Coral”
Producers: Jeff Orlowski, Larissa Rhodes
“City of Ghosts”
Producer: Matthew Heineman
“Cries from Syria”
Producers: Evgeny Afineevsky, Den Tolmor, Aaron I. Butler
“Earth: One Amazing Day”
Producer: Stephen McDonogh
“Jane”
“Joshua: Teenager vs. Superpower”
“The Newspaperman: The Life and Times of Ben Bradlee”
Producers: Teddy Kunhardt, George Kunhardt
Who Will Win: “Jane”
Who Should Win: “Jane”
Who Might Upset: “City of Ghosts,” “Cries from Syria”
Lowdown: In theory “Jane” has been campaigning the hardest with the guilds, but it’s possible either “Ghosts” or “Syria” (available on Netflix) find a way to upset.
The Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Drama:
“Big Little Lies” (Season 1)
“The Crown” (Season 2)
“Game of Thrones” (Season 7)
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 1)
“Stranger Things” (Season 2)
Who Will Win: “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Who Should Win: “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Who Might Upset: “Stranger Things,” “Big Little Lies,” “Game of Thrones”
Lowdown: This is another tough one. “Stranger Things” upset “Game of Thrones” last year while “Big Little Lies” hasn’t lost one major award yet. Still, our gut says “The Handmaid’s Tale” has had enough cultural influence to pull through, but if it’s going to lose anywhere this awards season it might be here.
The Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Comedy:
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Season 9)
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Season 1)
“Master of None” (Season 2)
“Silicon Valley” (Season 4)
“Veep” (Season 6)
Who Will Win: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Who Should Win: “Veep”
Who Might Upset: “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “Veep,” “Master of None”
Lowdown: Our guess is enough voting members caught up with “Maisel” after its Golden Globe win to pull it through. That being said, “Curb” is a five-time nominee and two-time winner in this category and “Veep” is a now a four-time nominee that has shockingly never won.
The David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Long-Form Television:
“Black Mirror” (Season 4)
“Fargo” (Season 3)
“Feud: Bette and Joan” (Season 1)
“Sherlock: The Lying Detective”
“The Wizard of Lies”
Who Will Win: “Black Mirror”
Who Should Win: “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Who Might Upset: “Fargo,” “The Wizard of Lies”
Lowdown: It’s worth noting the PGA decided “Big Little Lies” was not eligible for this category once season two was announced. “Feud” would have won this six months ago, but the heat for that show has dissipated as it endured a “Big Little Lies” lovefest from Emmy voters. “Black Mirror” is the most recent entry and the fact it will be so top of mind gives it a very slight edge over the other nominees.
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television:
“30 for 30” (Season 8)
“60 Minutes” (Season 50)
“Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown” (Season 9, Season 10)
“Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath” (Season 1, Season 2)
“Spielberg”
Who Will Win: “Spielberg”
Who Should Win: “30 for 30”
Who Might Upset: “Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath”
Lowdown: Something tells us the “Spielberg” doc will be too hard to ignore, but Leah Remini’s critically acclaimed series has a shot.
