The end is here. No, we’re not at the end of Oscar season, but we are effectively at the finish line for Oscar contenders to reveal themselves. Sure, “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “The Matrix: Resurrections” and “A Journal for Jordan” could somehow surprise, but that’s highly unlikely. The good news is, for the first time in quite a long while we have more legit Best Picture contenders than actual Best Picture slots. Who knew that was even possible in 2021?
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Over the course of the past few weeks, “Don’t Look Up,” “West Side Story” and “Nightmare Alley” have all entered the fray. Moreover, previously screened films such as “Licorice Pizza,” “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog” and “tick, tick…Boom!” have found their way to theaters and/or streaming releases. And there have been some somewhat intriguing results.
Let’s start with “tick, tick…Boom!,” the Lin-Manuel Miranda-directed musical that SAG members simply adore. Go to a screening for another film and you’ll hear SAG nom com (that’s nominating committee, for short) gush over star Andrew Garfield and the picture itself. Moreover, many AMPAS members have reacted to it more positively than its solid critical response. Is it a lock to make the Best Picture cut? No, but it’s not a pipe dream many thought it might be either.
Among the newest releases, “West Side Story” is getting the most hype after debuting earlier this week. A crowdpleaser on a number of levels, it’s certainly a Best Picture nominee at this point and you can expect Steven Spielberg to earn his eighth Best Director nod (which will be interesting overall considering the increasingly international focus of that category). The biggest Oscar player for the 20th Studios/Disney release, however, is Ariana DeBose. The “Schmigadoon!” star is simply spectacular as Anita and it’s hard to see anyone keeping the Best Supporting Actress Oscar from her. Rita Moreno, Debose’s co-star, the original big-screen Anita and the Supporting Actress winner for the original 1961 film, is also getting hyped for a nod. That said, we’re a bit more cautious on her prospects. This is turning out to be a very competitive category and we’re curious to see if AMPAS members find room for her when voting is tabulated on Feb. 2. Yes, double nominations for a film in these categories are increasingly common over the past decade, but, again, it’s something of a blood bath this year. Another easy nomination though will be Tony Kushner for his inventive and (mostly) modernized Adapted Screenplay. Rachel Zegler, who plays Maria, will be a player in the Best Actress race (another category more competitive than it was a month ago), but I’d be hesitant to say he’s as solid a nominee as Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”), Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) or Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”). The film will also be a player in the Editing, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, and Makeup and Hairstyling categories. Oh, and the less said about Ansel Elgort the better.
Guillermo del Toro’s gorgeous film noir “Nightmare Alley” also appears to be a likely Best Picture nominee, although there really are only five guaranteed nods at this point (“Belfast,” “Power of the Dog,” “West Side Story,” “Licorice Pizza” and “Dune”). Del Toro has a shot at a Best Director nod (it’s certainly deserving), but it’s a category where Jane Campion (“Power”), Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), and Spielberg likely have three of the five slots locked up. Bradley Cooper, as expected, should easily make the Best Actor race in what is one of the best performances of his career. The flashier player, however, is Cate Blanchett who practically steals the second half of the movie. It would be criminal if she didn’t make the Best Supporting Actress cut, but, as noted, that category is cutthroat. Del Toro and Kim Morgan have a chance in the Adapted Screenplay category, but nods are almost a given in Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and, possibly, Visual Effects. As one AMPAS member told me, “The world-building is incredible.”
Another major release looking to make a mark is Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up.” Led by a star-filled cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, Jonah HIll and, for a short period, Timothée Chalamet, McKay’s latest is one of the few genuine “issue” films with its comet crashing into the earth doomsday scenario an easy allegory for humanity’s reaction to the climate crisis. It earned good reactions, but is it, as Kirsten Dunst would describe, “shrimpy”? At this point we’re betting on the answer being “no.” The only caveat is that McKay’s previous film, “Vice” earned mixed reviews, at best, and still landed a nod. Granted, that film had powerhouse performances by Christian Bale and Amy Adams to rally voters around which McKay’s latest does not.
Keeping all this in mind, here’s an update of where the current Best Picture race has settled or as we like to call it, the Contender Countddown.
December 2, 2021
1 “Belfast”
I mean, the box office is making it a tenuous frontrunner, but it’s holding on.
2 “The Power of the Dog”
Has more passion behind it than you might think.
3 “West Side Story”
It should get in, but a win? Ya’ll need to calm down. Let’s let actual AMPAS members watch it first.
4 “Licorice Pizza”
An eight-time nominee overall, can Paul Thomas Anderson finally win in the Original Screenplay category?
5 “Dune”
Safe nominee and should earn multiple nominations. Adds some pretty stars to the red carpet Oscar night as well.
6 “King Richard”
Screw the box office, it has a big enough fan base to make the cut right? Right? We’re sure, right?
7 “Nightmare Alley”
Cate Blanchett and a cigarette. Name a better duo.
8 “CODA”
In theory, tearjerkers always have an advantage.
9 “tick, tick…BOOM!”
The surprise Netflix player that plays with a bang!
10 “The French Dispatch”
Right on the fringe, but that might do it at this point.
11 “The Lost Daughter”
The Gotham Awards champion, can Netflix really make the 10 film field with three BP nominees? A studio/distributor hasn’t pulled that off in over 50 years.
12 “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Yes, the Coens have a fanbase in the Academy. Not convinced this one is cinematic enough to make the cut.
13 “Spencer”
Can’t shake that feeling that it’s still too polarizing.
14 “Don’t Look Up”
Press and SAG reaction was positive. Reviews? We’ll see. AMPAS response? Curious.
15 “Being the Ricardos”
Keep hearing “it’s like a really good HBO movie.” There are 10 slots this year, but not sure it can overcome that. Especially when it will barely be in theaters before seguing to Amazon Prime.
16 “C’Mon, C’Mon”
Independent Spirit Awards here we come!
17 “The Worst Person in the World”
I mean, everyone who sees it loves it, but it’s simply too late at this point. NEON needed to position this one as a legit Best Picture player in September and they didn’t. Sigh.
18 “In The Heights”
In another timeline, it would be solidly in the top 10. To be honest, I might want to live in that timeline.
