Best Actor – Drama
Likely:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester By the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Tom Hanks, “Sully”
Mark Wahlberg, “Patriot’s Day”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Possible:
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals”
Michael Keaton, “The Founder”
Chris Pine, “Hell or High Water”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Lowdown: Edgerton and Gyllenhaal have the best chance to crack this five, but that’s likely only if the love for “Patriots Day” (and thereby Wahlberg) is less than we’ve been led to believe.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Likely:
Warren Beatty, “Rules Don’t Apply”
Colin Farrell, “The Lobster”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool”
Possible:
Robert De Niro, “The Comedian”
Lowdown: This category is inanely thin. That’s all you really need to know.
Best Supporting Actress
Likely:
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomi Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Possible:
Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Lowdown: The real question isn’t whether Gerwig will spoil, but whether former winner Spencer will get in over Monae.
Best Supporting Actor
Likely:
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Liam Neeson, “Silence”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Possible:
Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
John Goodman, “Patriots Day”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Lowdown: In theory this could look very much like the Oscar Best Supporting five even though its unclear what the HFPA think of “Silence.”
