Venice? Check. Telluride? Check. TIFF? Pretty much, check. The three major film festivals that traditionally mark the start of Oscar season are officially over (TIFF runs until the weekend, but all the major premieres are in the bag). And, for the first time in recent history, there is no real Best Picture frontrunner yet (let alone two when “12 Years A Slave” and “Gravity” split pundits four years ago). There are no Buzzfeed articles out of Toronto proclaiming [insert movie title] is winning Oscar’s top prize or that collective feeling out of Telluride that no matter what happens the industry on hand simply love it too much for it to lose (see “Argo,” “The Artist,” “The King’s Speech”). No, instead we have two films that have separated themselves from pack, should easily earn Best Picture nods, but are in no way locks to take it all: Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” and Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water.” And that’s just the half of it.
You also need to take into account that both the Best Actress and Original Screenplay categories are historically competitive this year. It won’t just be two or three contenders who get snubbed, but more like four or five (some publicists still have PTSD over the drama of the 2015 Best Actor campaign). This is simply an unsettled season like we haven’t seen in forever. Over the past two weeks I’ve heard publicists and consultants suggest contenders that would never be considered in previous years and it almost feels like they are throwing anything and everything against the wall. This is partially because of the game changing upset by “Moonlight” in February and the fact the only category that has a frontrunner anywhere near a lock is Gary Oldman for Best Actor in “Darkest Hour,” and despite his revelatory performance no one us ready to crown him yet. It’s almost as though the everyday uncertainty of the past nine months and the six-hour news cycle has those in the know on edge that anything or everything could happen this season.
First of all, let’s take a big collective breath. And maybe a second one (in through the nose, out through your mouth everyone). It’s all gonna workout for a bunch of different films and nominees on Oscar night. There is no “Titanic” in the wings ready to dominate Oscar night. Everybody should get a piece of the pie. More importantly, a lot of movie studios are going to make a lot of money on a bunch of excellent films we’ve seen already. And those that won’t already have a pretty good idea they are fighting a losing battle, but hey, that’s the movie business.
In this context, and only with the absolute best of intentions, I figured it might be valuable to humbly offer some unsolicited advice to every studio, mini-major and independent distributor in the game this year (and no, STX and “Molly’s Game” isn’t listed, but I’m sure Aaron Sorkin will find a way to get into the Adapted Screenplay race so don’t you worry Sorkin fans!).
Before we get too deep into into it let’s ponder that historical connection between “Dunkirk” and “Darkest Hour” that will come up consistently over the season. Note to both Warner Bros. and Focus: we get it, you aren’t working to help get the other studio’s films nominated But for those of us who have seen them both no one can remember the last time two pictures from opposite sides of one event so complemented each other in the same year. “Dunkirk” makes you appreciate “Darkest Hour” and “Darkest Hour” makes you appreciate “Dunkirk.” And, it’s OK for the talent to talk about that or answer questions about it because, at worst, it just makes everyone seem humble and confident enough not to care about the non-existent negative ramifications.
So, keeping that in mind…
A24
Major players we’ve seen: “The Florida Project,” “Lady Bird,” “Killing of a Sacred Deer”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: “The Florida Project” for Best Picture
Biggest cause for concern: “The Killing of a Sacred Deer” getting lost, and overestimating “Lady Bird”
Unsolicited advice: First off, A24 has a lot more potential wins spread across more films this season than they ended up with last year which is pretty amazing to believe considering “Moonlight” won three Oscars including Best Picture. The great news about ‘Florida’ from TIFF is that it was universally either adored, appreciated or really liked (take your pick). Of all the films A24 has this year ‘Florida’ needs to be screened the most. Screen the crap out of it. Have as many hosted screenings as you can get. Find champions. It needs endorsements early. The easiest play for “Lady Bird” is Laurie Metcalf. At this point it’s hard to see her not getting a Best Supporting Actress nod and, frankly, she could be the presumed frontrunner. Greta Gerwig has a very tough race for an Original Screenplay slot (everyone does, honestly), but it’s a legit opportunity. Don’t wast too much energy on Saorise Ronan in Best Actress, she’s very good, but by November it’s gonna feel like a stretch. As for ‘Killing,’ Colin Farrell should be in the Best Actor race and Nicole Kidman should be a player for Best Supporting Actress. Nicole’s probably tired of working the circuit (can you blame her after the past year?), but it’s possible she could gain some momentum if she wins at the Emmys on Sunday for “Big Little Lies.” Unfortunately, ‘Killing’ got a bit lost at TIFF (it happens) and needs more buzz. And book those targeted Instagram and Facebook ads for all your movies now. Your competitors recognized what worked for you last year for younger skewing movies and if it worked for the goose…
Annapurna Pictures
Major players we’ve seen: “Detroit”
Minor players we’ve seen: “Professor Marston and the Wonder Women”
Major players we haven’t: None (although that could change)
Biggest potential: John Boyega for Best Supporting Actor in “Detroit”
Biggest cause for concern: Can you flip the narrative on “Detroit” after sub par box office?
Unsolicited advice: Get that screener for “Detroit” out in October. Don’t wait until the Thanksgiving rush. The earlier the better could also help with SAG where Ensemble isn’t out of reach and Boyega has a better than average chance.
Amazon Studios
Major players we’ve seen: “The Big Sick,” “Wonderstruck”
Major players we haven’t: “Last Flag Flying,” “Wonder Wheel”
Biggest potential: “The Big Sick” or “Last Flag Flying” for Best Picture
Biggest cause for concern: Buzz on “Wonder Wheel” isn’t great besides Kate Winslet who is Best Actress nominee worthy
Unsolicited advice: Don’t go too overboard on “The Big Sick,” and let the campaign happen organically. You should definitely support it heavily, but your chances at a Best Picture nod are better if it doesn’t seem like you want it too much. If Bryan Cranston has a shot at a nod for ‘Flag,’ get him everywhere. There are few actors who have earned so much adoration over his career as Cranston. Steve Carell is going to have to make a decision with pushing either ‘Flag’ or Fox Searchlight’s “Battle of the Sexes” and like all actors who have to choose, it’s gonna be what it’s gonna be. “Wonderstruck” is below the line nods only, with plays likely going to Ed Lachman for Best Cinematography and Mark Friedman for Production Design. It might have a shot at Supporting Actress with Julianne Moore and Adapted Screenplay as well, but keep expectations realistic. The reaction at Cannes, Telluride and TIFF was pretty universal.
Bleecker Street
Major players we’ve seen: “Breathe”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: Andrew Garfield for Best Actor for “Breathe”
Biggest cause for concern: Strong box office – even art house tallies – would help. If not, it could get lost no matter what the PR and industry outreach is.
Unsolicited advice: After earning a Best Actor nod for “Hacksaw Ridge” in January, Garfield has a great shot at a nod again this season. The more SAG Q&A’s he can do in LA the better. Claire Foy deserves recognition too, but as noted, Best Actress is a “Hunger Games” competition this season. Lots and lots of great performances will be snubbed. As for Best Picture, it probably depends on how well it does. The studio might want to work on some alternate key art too. The romantic moment with the Kenya backdrop feels a bit like a cheat (yes, we know the trailer gives more away but…) If members understand there is a real story about a pioneer in disabled people’s rights, the interest could go up considerably. There’s more at stake here than just a conventional period romance.
Focus Features
Major players we’ve seen: “Darkest Hour,” “The Beguiled,” “Victoria & Abdul”
Major players we haven’t: “Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project”
Biggest potential: Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Picture, Best Director for “Darkest Hour”
Biggest cause for concern: Judi Dench has a tough road ahead of her. Does she want to campaign? (Wait, don’t answer that…)
Unsolicited advice: As mentioned earlier, Gary Oldman’s a lock for a Best Actor nod and the absolute frontrunner at this moment. He’s gonna impress the hell out of the actors branch (and likely some directors too). He’s not the worry. For “Darkest Hour” the focus must be more on the scope of the picture and how Joe Wright‘s vision elevated the material from a conventional biopic to something more important (“The Queen” is actually your comparable here in my opinion). Also, don’t give the British branch of the Academy or BAFTA up to “Dunkirk.” This movie is incredibly emotional for Brits. Let them own it. As for “The Beguiled,” Kirsten Dunst in Supporting Actress is conceivable as is a Cinematography nod for Philippe Le Sourd. Follow the A24 advertising model for “Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson.” You have a shot of major support from the Academy’s increasing cinephile block for that one if you can reach them early enough and social media is key.
Netflix
Major players we’ve seen: “First They Killed My Father,” “Mudbound,” “Okja”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: Angelina Jolie for Best Director
Biggest cause for concern: We’re not gonna lie, that Netflix title card without a “studios” or some film designation beforehand won’t endear you to Academy voters.
Unsolicited advice: You have a better bet earning Netflix’s first nod with Angelina for Best Director than a Foreign Film nomination for ‘First They Killed’ (we’re not convinced it makes even the nine-film cut for a number of reasons). But Jolie’s work as a filmmaker is simply incredible. If she’ll do the rounds for it, the movie could be the breakthrough the streaming service is looking for. Jason Mitchell and Mary J. Blige are your best bets for “Mudbound” nods in Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress respectively. In theory, Carey Mulligan has a chance but this might not be her year. “Okja” could play below the line, especially as a VFX, Costumes, Production Design and Sound category spoiler. Push earlier rather than later on that one. And trying to do a big Academy event at the Chinese IMAX for “Okja” wouldn’t be a bad idea either. Find a way to get guild and industry members to see it on the biggest screen they can. And last, but not least, if Dustin Hoffman hits the circuit he could sneak into Supporting Actor for “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)” (Maybe).
Paramount Pictures
Major players we’ve seen: “Downsizing,” “Suburbicon,” “Mother!”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress or Alexander Payne for Best Director.
Biggest cause for concern: Well, the reaction to “Downsizing” at Telluride and TIFF wasn’t great.
Unsolicited advice: You need a reset on “Downsizing.” Go quiet for a few months, let Alexander re-charge and when you return focus the campaign on the unique vision of the world. “You’ve never seen anything like it” is totally accurate and a great way to frame it both commercially and to the guilds and Academy.
Roadside Attractions
Major players we’ve seen: “Stronger”*
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: Jake Gyllenhaal for Best Actor
Biggest cause for concern: Box office
Unsolicited advice: “Stronger” may play with SAG audiences better than anyone expects. If Jake and Tatiana Maslany are available, screen the crapload out of it with them in attendance. (Also, Liongsate why did you ditch this pic? It’s a tearjerker that could make money). And yes, please push Salma Hayek for “Beatriz at Dinner,” even if it’s hard to get acting nods out of spring and summer art house hits.
*Roadside is also working with Amazon on “Wonderstruck” which they are distributing.
20th Century Fox
Major players we’ve seen: “War for the Planet of the Apes”
Major players we haven’t: “The Greatest Showman,” “The Post”
Biggest potential: “The Post” to win Best Picture and earn a ton of other nominations. Best Original Song for “The Greatest Showman”
Biggest cause for concern: Getting the Academy to pay attention to “War” when they’ve ignored the other two “Apes” films.
Unsolicited advice: Everyone thinks “The Post” can be the one this year. The usual advice in these situations would be to follow the sort of modest, by the book campaign that has been a hallmark of Steven Spielberg‘s awards successes. Times have changed, however. If you have the goods, do the unexpected. If you want to make the parallel between the Muller investigation into Donald Trump’s Russian ties a thing? Then own it. Do you really think you’re going to lose points for that in Hollywood (cough, see “The Salesman” last year)? The more negative reports you get on this movie on Fox News the more votes you get! Oh, and there’s nothing wrong with suggesting Meryl Streep should have four Oscars. If she’s great in “The Post” she should absolutely stand alongside Katherine Hepburn with her fourth.
.){kind=link}