You know the drill. We hate early Oscar predictions especially when most of us and or all of us haven’t seen the films yet, however, 2008 has been the year of “if you can’t beat ’em join ’em,” for The Playlist unfortunately. If you wanna stay in the game, you play the game. That said, we have seen some great movies early at both the Toronto International Film Festival and the New York Film Festival. Here’s how we see things parsing our right now. Keep in mind Oscar temperature rises and falls just as it should and no one really has a bead on the year til mid-December when all the pictures are finally released and we’ve seen them all. But the year has become interesting all of a sudden now that two major players, “The Soloist” And “The Road” have bowed out. It means the Best Actor field wont have Robert Downey Jr. or Viggo Mortensen and Jamie Foxx won’t be around to crowd the Best Supporting Actor area. Same goes for their directors, writers and the pictures themselves. Here’s what we have so far…
Best Picture – The Best Bets, so far…
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Revolutionary Road”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Australia”
Some people looking safe bets have “Frost/Nixon” and Clint Eastwood’s “Gran Torino” listed, but we think both those films are going to be the “Charlie Wilson’s War” of this year – i.e. a film everyone assumed was going to be part of the Oscar frame, but only picked up one serious nod for Best Supporting actor (Philip Seymour Hoffman). We’re very very doubtful over “Wall-E” and “The Dark Knight” getting any major noms other than technical awards (and Ledger of course).
Dark Horses:
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Rachel Getting Married”
“Frost/Nixon”
We loved Slumdog Millionaire, but we think it’s too outside what Hollywood normally digests. Then again, we would have never predicted that “There Will Be Blood,” or “No Country For Old Men,”would have generated Oscar nominations, let alone wins. Maybe it’s a sign that the Academy is getting less conservative, but years of this approach has left us cynical. “The Wrestler,” is good, but not that good, it won’t get an Best Picture Oscar nomination, mark our words. Our gut tell us right now if there’s any small-ish indie film that breaks through like each one seems to do each year (“Juno” last year), “Rachel Getting Married” will be the one. Then again, the game could change when ‘Slumdog’ is finally released in November. ‘Frost’ will have to get over the semi-negative buzz it received in the U.K. if it hopes to be a contender again.
Best Actor – The Best Bets So Far…
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Revolutionary Road”
Sean Penn – “Milk”
Frank Langhella – “Frost/Nixon”
Mickey Rourke – “The Wrestler”
Brad Pitt – “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Dark Horses: Josh Brolin – “W” – it isn’t necessarily the greatest performance of the year, but with Robert Downey Jr. and Viggo Mortensen officially out of the way he may have a shot.
Will Smith – “Seven Pounds” – hey, he did it with the same director of “The Pursuit Of Happyness.”
Benicio del Toro – His work in “Che” demands a Best Actor Nomination, but does IFC have the muscle or money to mount a campaign to affect Oscar voters? Will people warm to this grossly underrated epic? We only include Brad Pitt in the safe bets section for now just cause people are assuming it will happen, but we’re not so sure, he’s generally overlooked by the Academy. But then again, if ‘Button’ is as good as they say it is…
Best Actress – The Safe Bets – The Most crowded field
Anne Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married” – Her performance is overrated, but conventional wisdom says…
Angelina Jolie – “Changeling”
Kristen Scott Thomas – “I’ve Loved You So Long” – A devastating and astounding performance. If she can’t break through, call the Oscars off.
Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
Meryl Streep – “Doubt”
Dark Horses:
Sally Hawkins – “Happy Go Lucky”
Kate Beckinsale – “Nothing But The Truth“
Michell Williams – “Wendy & Lucy”
Melissa Leo – “Frozen River”
Obviously, the Best Actress race is extremely crowded. We’d love to see Hawkins, and Williams get a nomination from this group, they were both stellar and Beckinsale and Leo are both very deserving too, but right now the best bet is to think conservatively with favored actors like Winslet and Streep. Kristin Scott Thomas might end up becoming a dark horse herself.
Best Supporting Actress – Best Bets
Penélope Cruz – “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” – Must be seen as the frontrunner right now.
Rosemarie DeWitt – “Rachel Getting Married” – She’s the best part of this movie, hands down. She’ll almost surely get a nomination.
Amy Adams – “Doubt” – The only thing that leads us to think she can get a nomination is that she’s a spectacular actress, and we’re not sure that everyone realizes it because of her recent fluffy film choices (“Enchanted,” ‘Mrs. Pettigrew’), but she’s amazing and evinces serious chops in even the silliest films (“Talladega Nights” – that scene in the bar? Whoa).
Dark Horses
Rebecca Hall – “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” – Weinsteins won’t likely compete against themselves and Cruz is decidely better.
Evan Rachel Wood – We kind of hate ERW, but her work in “The Wrestler” is superb and it would thrill us to no end if she scored a nomination.
Vera Farmiga – “Nothing But the Truth”
Elsa Zylberstein – “I’ve Loved You So Long” – super deserving, but seems like a longshot.
Some people list Marisa Tomei from the “Wrestler” and Taraji P. Henson from ‘Benjamin Button.’ Tomei isn’t that good and Henson doesn’t have enough screentime from the script we’ve read, but that could change.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin – “Milk”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “Doubt”
Heath Ledger – “The Dark Knight”
Russell Crowe – “Body Of Lies”
Dark Horse:
Eddie Marsan – “Happy Go Lucky” – En Ra Ha! We’ve already mounted the campaign, but we’re a bit skeptical that the Academy will notice him. Crowe could be an outside shot as well. Right now this feels like a two-legged horse-race between Ledger and PSH.
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins – “Revolutionary Road”
Mandy Walker – “Australia”
Claudio Miranda- ‘Benjamin Button’
Harris Savides – “Milk”
Chris Menges – “The Reader”
Dark Horses: Wally Pfister – “The Dark Knight”
Best Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black – “Milk”
J. Michael Straczynski – “Changeling”
Robert D. Siegel – “The Wrestler”
Mike Leigh – “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Peter Buchman and Steven Soderbergh – “Che”
Dark Horse: Maybe Charlie Kaufman can earn his requisite bi-annual Screenplay nomination for “Synecdoche, New York,” but something tells us this too-abstruse film is going to be left out in the cold everywhere. We’re almost positive, Black, Straczynski and Siegel are locks for nominations. It would be also nice to see Simon Beaufoy score a ‘Slumdog’ screenplay nod, but that’s adapted and we’ll do that soon.
Best Director
Sam Mendes – “Revolutionary Road”
Gus Van Sant – “Milk”
Stephen Daldry – “The Reader”
Baz Luhrmann – “Australia”
David Fincher – “The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button”
Deeper categories soon…, but remember, it’s all speculation on everyone’s part. No one’s really seen “Australia,” “Milk” and ‘Benjammin Button,’ so you’ll notice we and everyone else has them listed high everywhere. That’s because we don’t know what they’ll be like and we’re assuming they’ll be as great as we hope they’re supposed to be. David Fincher, Baz Luhrmann, Gus Van Sant? Those are auteurs, not generally filmmaker associated with Oscar fare. We’ll have to wait and see there.