If you want to win Best Picture, you usually need a screenplay win to do it. Over the last 20 years, 14 Best Picture winners also won Original or Adapted Screenplay. And over the past four years, only one film, “Nomadland,” was able to pull off the win without a Screenplay triumph. That’s why this year’s Adapted Screenplay may be a kingmaker on Oscar night.
The three expected nominees, Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer”; Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese’s collaboration on “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Tony McNamara‘s script for “Poor Things,” are also representing potential Best Picture winners. That will make this category a huge priority for Universal Pictures, Apple Studios, and Searchlight Pictures, respectfully. And a good thing the WGA strike has come to an end so they can court their votes publicly.
The remaining two slots are very much in flux. Emmy-winner Cord Jefferson might make the cut for TIFF People’s Choice Award-winner “American Fiction,” as could Andrew Haigh for “All of Us Strangers” or even Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest.” Again, three more films with at least hopes of making the Best Picture field. Not to be ignored is Kelly Fremon Craig’s adaptation of the seminal Judy Blume novel, “Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret?,” still one of the best-reviewed movies of the year.
Can any other screenplay find serious traction in this race? At this point, it seems rather unlikely. [Updated Nov 17]
LIKELY
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Tony McNamara, “Poor Things”
ALMOST THERE
Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Kelly Fremon Craig, “Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret?”
POSSIBLE
Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller, “Blackberry”
Ava DuVernay “Origin”
Marcus Gardley, “The Color Purple”
Phil Lord, Rodney Rothman, “Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse”
Lauren Schuker Blum, Rebecca Angelo, “Dumb Money”
LONGSHOTS
Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel, “Eileen”
Andrew Kevin Walker, “The Killer”
Troy Kennedy Martin, “Ferrari”
Julia Cox, “Nyad”