A funny thing happened on the way to the 2019 awards season campaign. The almost always competitive Adapted Screenplay category became…not so competitive? Granted, there is always room for surprises, but many of Oscar’s heavy hitters this year are in the Original Screenplay mix. That means Lulu Wang’s “The Farewell,” Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” and Steve Zaillian’s “The Irishman” are more than likely nominees. The other two slots? Well, it’s something of a free-for-all with “Jojo Rabbit,” “Hustlers,” “Dark Water,” “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” “Just Mercy” and even “Judy” in the mix. Even “Toy Story 4” could duplicate the nomination in this category its predecessor, “Toy Story 3,” earned. That’s a lot to ponder. [Posted September 30]
LIKELY
“The Farewell”
“The Irishman”
“Little Women”
ALMOST THERE
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Hustlers”
“Dark Water”
“Just Mercy”
“Judy”
“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
LONGER SHOTS BUT NOT OUT OF IT
“Toy Story 4”
“Cats”
“Joker
“Downton Abbey”
“The Laundrymat”
More Oscar predictions
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Director
Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of the entertainment industry's most respected journalists and critics. Based in Los Angeles, he's the only current awards expert who previously worked on Oscar campaigns at a major movie studio. Over the years, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Vox, among others. He also co-founded the entertainment news site HitFix, which spawned a legion of influential Emmy and WGA Award-winning alumni.
