It’s now Tuesday, February 11th and Oscar voting is officially underway. On Friday afternoon, the Best Picture race was more wide open than any time in the past two decades. By late Saturday night, it was effectively over. Here are some thoughts on a magical awards season weekend for “Anora” which originally appeared in The Breakdown Newsletter which you can subscribe to for free here.
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Most of the time, winning the Oscar for Best Picture comes down to the movie The Academy loves the most. This weekend, in a surprise that perhaps shouldn’t be that surprising, two major guilds said they simply adored Sean Baker’s “Anora.”
The good times for NEON’s Palm d’Or winner kicked off Friday night when, after going completely scoreless in a three-hour ceremony, the Critics Choice Awards honored “Anora” with Best Picture with the final prize. 24 hours later, Baker overtook the expected winner at the DGA Awards, Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist,” before jumping over to the PGA Award ceremony where “Anora” pulled off a miraculous double win overtaking expected winners’ “Conclave,” “The Brutalist” or, maybe, “A Complete Unknown.” A massive weekend of wins before Oscar voting began on Tuesday. NEON is no doubt elated. And a year that seemed wide open seems much less so.
The coronation may be cemented on Sunday when the BAFTA Awards are handed out in London. “Anora” has every nomination you need from The Academy’s sister from another mister across the pond to take Best Film. Even if it doesn’t take the prize – let’s say “Emilia Perez” overcomes the controversies (the Europeans love it a bit more than the Americans) and pulls off a win – it’s hard not to see “Anora” earning a crown on March 2nd at the Dolby Theater. It’s a massive flip of events which had many (including NEON’s competitors) believing Corbet would take DGA, “Conclave,” “Brutalist” or “A Complete Unknown” PGA, and, way after voting has closed, SAG anointing “Wicked,” “Emila” or “Conclave” with the Ensemble honor. Sure, it’s a minor precursor at this point, but maybe “Anora” will just take SAG too. I mean, momentum is a thing, no?
(Yes, yes it is.)
Granted, five movies over the last 20 years didn’t take Best Picture after double DGA and PGA wins: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Gravity” (it tied PGA with “12 Years A Slave”), “La La Land,” and “1917.” Those were all unique situations, however.
In January 2006, despite “Brokeback” being the “public” favorite, there was a Variety poll of 100 or so Academy members before nomination voting that showed “Crash” was the frontrunner (and yes, AMPAS was furious about it and the poll has never happened since). That car, um, “Crash” was seen a mile away. Almost a decade later, “Gravity” and “12 Years” faced off in likely one of the closest Oscar races ever (“American Hustle” took SAG). There is seemingly no two-contender race this time around. Long seen as the frontrunner, the fading appreciation for “La La Land” was simmering for months. You couldn’t escape it. Even when the Damien Chazelle musical picked up major guild honors. And “1917”? Sam Mendes’ one-shot wonder was respected artistically, but not adored. It wasn’t a tearjerker and didn’t resonate like Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite.” The love was never there. If “Anora” has anything – beyond a Palm d’Or and two major guild wins, it’s love. Hey, it’s not deep. It’s a pretty simple story, but you care about the characters, especially Mikey Madison as the Anora in question (oh yes, Ms. Demi Moore, you better watch out, she’s coming).
Could we try to find reasons why “Anora” won’t win? I mean, sure. These are its only major two guild wins so far. It lost at the Gotham Awards (AMPAS voters) and the Box Office was lower domestically than many expected, but, I mean, whatever. Moreover, any controversy over Madison agreeing not to have an intimacy coordinator on set seems to have dissipated. And perhaps there are just too many controversies or not as much love for the other major contenders. Or maybe BAFTA or SAG will give some semblance of suspense by anointing someone else.
Nah, it’s probably “Anora.”
Just for kicks, though, here’s the latest Contender Countdown.
February 11
1 “Anora”
Cannes hype. Early release. Escapist. That works in these crazy times.
2 “Conclave”
Still has a shot, but needs a BAFTA or SAG upset to make anyone truly believe.
3 “A Complete Unknown”
The wildcard that could somehow go home empty handed. Didn’t have that on my 2025 bingo card.
4 “The Brutalist”
Corbet potentially still has a shot at Best Director, Adrien Brody is your Best Actor frontrunner and Original Score and Cinematography are in the cards. Not a bad tally for a Venice pick-up for A24 and a moneymaker already in the black overseas for Focus.
5 “Wicked”
Should snag at least three below the line honors, but can Cynthia or Ariana surprise?
6 “Emilia Perez”
BAFTA could give it a boost, but hopes may be on just Zoe Saldana now.
7 “I’m Still Here”
Is SPC’s Brazillian wonder going to take the International Film trophy from “Perez”? I mean…
8 “The Substance”
Why do we think Coralie Fargeat might snag Original Screenplay. No, really. Why is that in the back of our brain.
9 “Dune: Part Two”
Should leave Hollywood Blvd with at least a Visual Effects win.
10 “Nickel Boys”
If “Conclave” is fading, could DGA winner RaMell Ross surprise in Adapted Screenplay? A big if but…
