Fair warning, the ratings for the 97th Academy Awards aren’t gonna be great. That’s no fault of Conan O’Brien, who killed in the room and showed not a sign of nervousness in his first time as emcee. Frankly, many will likely welcome his return next year, assuming he’s willing to do it. The show had other issues inherent to the nominees themselves. “Anora,” the Best Picture winner that effectively dominated the proceedings, is one of the lowest-grossing champions in decades. The presenters’ star power was “eh.” And while we adore RAYE, Lisa, and Doja Cat, they aren’t needle movers in terms of musical performances. Next year will be better, however. A new “Avatar” movie and “Wicked for Good” should be in the mix. And the Bruce Springsteen biopic and whatever Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonardo DiCaprio have cooked up won’t hurt either. That doesn’t even take into account Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone entering the fray again. And, possibly, the return of Daniel Day-Lewis (wait, did we tease that?).
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But, we digress. Tonight is about cheering a steady NEON campaign that survived the onslaught of a slew of formidable contenders since its Cannes debut. So, ratings? Unless it drops 50% from last year no one at The Academy or ABC will be panicking (they may be freaking about the Hulu glitches toward the end of the telecast, however).
Once again, a Cannes Film Festival jury filled with AMPAS members showed the way. Led by four-time nominee Greta Gerwig this time around, “Anora” took the Palme d’Or in a competitive festival that saw two other world premieres earn Best Picture nominations. The Oscar race no longer starts at Venice or Telluride. La Croisette is the place to be. But there were obstacles for Sean Baker’s romantic dramedy along the way.
First, there was the spin that a movie about a sex worker is still pretty radical to win Best Picture in 2025. Those stories were sort of headscratching to this particular pundit, especially considering how independent and international the Academy has been in their nomination picks for at least two decades. Also, everyone realizes this is still a super progressive and liberal industry, right? The more conservative, non-creative media company executives who have a vote are few and far between.
Moreover, and we assume NEON would admit this, the box office wasn’t newsworthy. This was supposed to be a crowd-pleaser that could easily hit $20-30 million domestic. That didn’t happen. Before any forthcoming re-release, “Anora” won Best Picture on a $15 million gross in the U.S. At one point, it was in 1,500 theaters. That’s pretty wide. Sure, “Babygirl” had Nicole Kidman, but she hasn’t been a leading theatrical draw in decades, and that similarly sexy flick took in $28 million domestically with much more competition. The prevailing thought was that if “Anora” was that beloved, it should have made more. Perhaps nervousness over the November election (and its results) damped its theatrical run, perhaps not. The good news was that NEON dropped it in October, a pivotal release month for Best Picture winners.
NEON – and its competitors – were also fighting for attention with monster publicity campaigns from Netflix’s “Emilia Perez” and Universal Pictures’ “Wicked.” Full disclosure, Universal wasn’t sure if they genuinely had an awards player on their hands until they started showing it to the press. All their publicity events were initially just trying to make sure the musical became the cultural phenomenon it deserved to be (mission accomplished). On the other end of the spectrum, Netflix found overseas voters euphoric over “Perez.” It ruled the European Film Awards in December even as grumblings of discontent with how the film portrayed its trans protagonist grew in North America. Oh, and Netflix – smartly – hadn’t even opened the movie in Mexico yet (backlash Saldana couldn’t even escape in the press room after winning).
And then there was “Conclave,” Edward Berger’s sly thriller that kept chugging along seemingly lock and step with “Anora.” After finding love with AMPAS voters in Telluride, where “Anora” also made waves, it earned a fine $32 million in the U.S. It also received much better reviews than most cinephiles want to admit and road all that awards attention to $101 million global. Like “A Complete Unknown,” which pulled off an Oscar run miracle with a late debut, it played to mostly older audiences. “Conclave” also had a depressing problem where its leading man, Ralph Fiennes, was unavailable to campaign in person in New York and Los Angeles during much of the key months of November and December. In today’s campaign environment, where red carpet magic and Q&A soundbites are worth almost too much attention, that was like asking “Conclave” to carry the Oscar a multitude of campaigns with one arm tied behind its back (more on this in my New Oscar Rules column which you can access on Monday night by signing up for The Breakdown). Baker, Madison, and even co-star Yura Borisov were often everywhere.
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Again, there were also minor setbacks. A24’s “The Brutalist” started taking key critics groups prizes and “Anora” needed Bakers’ hometown (or longtime residence) organization, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association to crown it Best Film. The movie also left the Gotham Awards empty-handed, a disconcerting moment considering it landed four nominations, and guild and AMPAS members were among the voters.
But it kept chugging along. Neither Madison nor Baker ever seemed to tire of the endless campaign stops (or hid it if they were). Luckily, any publicity fires over Madison’s revelation the film did not use an intimacy coordinator faded compared to all the other controversies other contenders were enduring. And when guild season arrived, “Anora” started to win and win big. Baker surprised many by taking the DGA Award over Brady Corbet and then won the PGA Award less than 90 minutes later. All with access to final Oscar ballots days away from arriving in members’ inboxes. Those wins didn’t seal the deal, but they certainly came close.
Of course, many will wonder how the fires impacted voting overall. Or, if the Karla Sofía Gascón madness had somehow been avoided, would “Emilia Perez,” with its 13 nominations, have pulled off the win (we think the anger from Mexico would have been even louder, frankly)? You can also debate on whether “The Brutalist” or “A Complete Unknown” fared better if they had opened earlier (virtually impossible for the latter, which wrapped production the first week of…July). At this point, that’s all sort of silly, though.
Even with just six nominations, “Anora” had a dominating Oscar night. Baker took four individual awards, including Editing, a category he wasn’t supposed to have a shot in (“Wicked” anyone?). But he won it because the membership loved the movie. That’s what it’s always about. That’s why “Green Book” won. That’s why “CODA” won. That’s why “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and “Oppenheimer” practically swept. When AMPAS loves something, they love it. And they crown it. Everything else is just a red herring (or in this case, SAG or BAFTA wins for “Conclave”).
It’s also a testament to the NEON team and their consultants who kept at it even with all those obstacles in their path. They already knew what a long marathon an Oscar campaign is when your contender debuts in May. They already experienced it with Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite” five years ago. That Palme d’Or winner was not only the first non-English Language Film to win Best Picture, but also took Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. A cascade of emotion during an Oscar ceremony was some sort of manifestation that hope for change was right around the corner (in fact, COVID-19 wasn’t right around the corner; it was already here).
And now, “Anora” is their second Best Picture winner in just eight years of existence. It took the vaunted A24 11 years to pull that off. No pressure on the trifecta. At least, not until tomorrow,
