All those naysayers fretting over the state of the box office are going to have to find something new to complain about after Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” arrive in theaters this weekend. Yes, “Barbenheimer” is finally here and both films are looking at a combined $150 to $170 million (or maybe more) over the three-day span (and that’s just in the U.S.). Shockingly, two critically acclaimed, non-sequel, completely original films have sparked the cultural zeitgeist. Imagine that. With consultants feverishly coming up with Oscar campaign scenarios without currently striking SAG and WGA members, it reminds us that these are two filmmakers who have a lot of experience on the awards season trail. And, yes, both “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” will have an impact on this year’s Oscar race.
Let’s start with “Oppenheimer,” which looks to be Universal Pictures’ one real non-animated awards player this season. Based on stellar critical reaction and what looks to be a strong theatrical run, Nolan’s latest is shaping up to potentially land a boatload of nominations. It also doesn’t hurt that it has an incredible cast, many of whom are Academy members (a SAG Awards ensemble nom is practically in the bag). A Best Picture nomination is very likely at this point of the season (granted there are always twists and turns) and Nolan should earn his second Best Director nod as well as his first Adapted Screenplay recognition after two-time Original Screenplay noms for “Memento” and “Inception.”
On the acting front, the sublime Cillian Murphy will be in the running for Best Actor recognition, but it’s definitely going to be a nom both he and Universal will have to campaign for. Murphy is in almost every scene of the film, but his character is a quiet pillar amongst Nolan’s cinematic flourishes. Frankly, it’s the one major nomination that gives us pause. Robert Downey, Jr., on the other hand, should triumphantly land his third nomination, in this case, for Supporting Actor. Look for Emilly Blunt, who arguably has the movie’s best “awards” moment, to be a strong contender for Supporting Actress as well. And Florence Pugh has an outside shot at that category depending on how the field rounds out. At publication there are rumors “Dune, Part II” and “The Color Purple” may bolt out of 2024 due to the SAG strike. That would dramatically alter the nomination filed. Especially in the supporting categories.
The below-the-line nominations are much easier to suss out. Hoyte Van Hoytema landed a Cinematography nom for “Dunkirk” in 2018. He has an excellent shot at a second in January. Production Designer Ruth De Jong is hunting for her first nom, but six of Nolan’s last eight films found their way to recognition in this category (granted, those all went to Nathan Crowley). Costume Designer Ellen Mirojnick is also looking for her first Academy recognition (she is an Emmy and CDG Awards winner) and has an excellent opportunity here.
One should assume Jennifer Lame is on the shortlist for Editing (her resume will help with the branch) and Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, and Sound are absolutely in play. If the movie has one other “lock” of a nomination it’s likely for Ludwig Göransson’s masterpiece of a score. Göransson is already a two-time nominee and won Original Score for “Black Panther” in 2019.
If you do the math, “Oppenheimer” could be looking at anywhere from 10-13 nominations. That’s far more than both “Inception” and “Dunkirk” although neither had an actor make the cut. Is that a reach? Ponder.
As for “Barbie,” the phenomenon (yes, when audiences around the world show up in themed pink outfits for a movie screening it’s a phenomenon) has one major problem when it comes to any Oscar recognition. Despite critical love and what appears to be a passionate fanbase, it’s still a movie based on a toy. Can a billion-dollar worldwide gross overcome that? Maybe yes, maybe no. Remember when “The Lego Movie” didn’t land an Animated Feature nom in 2015? Sure, it snagged an Original Song nom, but the snub was telling for a critic’s favorite that ended up winning the respective BAFTA category and made numerous end-of-year top 10 lists.
Frankly, the toy aspect is a big deal. Academy voters will be cautious despite their respect for previous nominees Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and Noah Baumbach. As noted earlier, even if several year-end contenders move to 2024 many will be wary to go down that road no matter how subversive Gerwig’s creative intentions are. So, Picture? Original Screenplay? Any acting noms? Let’s hold off on those particular speculations for now. We’re still too skeptical at this moment. But, anything is possible, right?
That being said, the artists who built the “Barbie” world should face less prejudice and be a mainstay of the upcoming season. Costume Designer Jacqueline Durran is a two-time Oscar winner and eight-time nominee. She has an excellent shot at number nine here. Production Designer Sarah Greenwood is a six-time Oscar nominee. Her work building Barbie Land should easily land her a seventh. And, as you might expect, Makeup and Hair is probably the one absolute lock for the Warner Bros. and Mattel production. Cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto is a three-time Oscar nominee, but we’re not sure “Barbie” will be his fourth. The camerawork and lighting in Barbie Land are stunning, but the real-world shots are often messier than they should be (and not in an intentional way).
The most intriguing question for “Barbie” will arrive in the Original Song category. Mark Ronson produced and co-wrote many of the tracks and there are four that are deserving of consideration. There’s “I’m Just Ken,” which is part of a pivotal moment in the narrative and features an incredible dance number (remember, the Music branch judges in context). Lizzo’s “Pink” is a song that interacts with the narrative (a darkhorse submission) and Dua Lipa’s “Dance The Night” may have sounded like a B-side to “Future Nostalgia” but was written specifically for the film and part of an early dance sequence (it’s also the catchiest of the bunch and has been a significant streaming hit). Last, but certainly not least, is Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” which plays over the film’s emotional climax. Most studios and consultants believe submitting more than two contenders is a mistake (see what happened to “Dreamgirls” in 2007) and would prefer just one. Do you turn down Academy favorite and recent winner Eilish? And a song that sounds like an easy Grammy nominee? Do you just submit “I Am Ken” knowing its chances of winning are borderline? Could Lizzo be the secret sauce to two noms? Does Dua Lipa get her moment in the spotlight? Needless to say, this is an abundance of riches that will no doubt be debated by the filmmakers and studio for months.
For those catching up, the Best Picture race now looks as though screened films “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Zone of Interest” and “Past Lives” will be “likely” nominees. “Air,” “Person of Interest” and “May December” are in the mix. The ongoing work stoppages are making the rest of the outlook cloudy at best, but whatever contenders dare to venture to Venice, Telluride, and Toronto should bring some clarity to the season. Maybe.
“Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” are now playing nationwide.
