TELLURIDE – For those of us lucky enough to attend Cannes, there was a genuine sense of euphoria about returning to an in-person film festival following the pandemic forced cancellation in 2020. Returning to Telluride, which only featured a historic “Nomadland” outdoor screening last year, due to said pandemic, warmed the heart. Obviously, it wasn’t the same. Mandatory masks in all theaters meant it was often more intrusive to speak with other festival goers about their thoughts on the selections than in previous years, but overall there was a collective sense of joy in just how lucky everyone was to return to the annual Colorado cinephile showcase
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, a mainstay at Telluride, wasn’t “officially” on the ground this year due to concerns over the Delta variant, but many AMPAS members still made the trek. And, for those who like to dismiss Telluride’s influence, it’s still the only festival where a majority of the filmmakers and talent get to see each other’s films. And it’s the only one where they return again and again. This year, Alexander Payne and Andrew Haigh, among others, made the trip up to watch films without anything of their own to shepherd. Like all the attendees, their reactions will filter through the industry ecosystem prompting interest in one film or another just as much as any review will. That’s one reason why only over the past 11 years only one Best Picture winner, “Green Book,” hasn’t debuted or screened at the festival. We’re confident a number of Best Picture nominees were shown at this year’s festival, but not convinced Telluride’s winning percentage will stretch to 11 out of 12 years when it comes to anointing Best Picture.
Let’s take a look at some of the world premieres and first U.S. premieres (ie, Venice got it first) that made it to the Colorado Rockies and their awards season chances.
“Belfast”
Kenneth Branagh’s personal period piece was a genuine crowd-pleaser and that’s hard to do when your setting is The Troubles in 1969 Northern Ireland. It feels like the most sure-fire BP nominee, but likely will be more of a word-of-mouth player than a critical darling. That being said, it feels like Branagh has a better shot at a nomination for his Original Screenplay than direction, and stars Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan are “likely” in the mix for Lead Actress and Actor nominations respectfully (a final decision hasn’t been made at this time). The movie’s real secret weapon with voters? Fantastic newcomer Jude Hill, who plays Kenneth as a 9-year-old (one of many great young actor performances so far this year), and Judi Dench, as his grandmother, who may just seal the deal. And, as always, you can never discount Dench’s chances in the Supporting category even though she hasn’t been nominated since 2014.
“The Power of the Dog”
If Jane Campion’s latest wins the Golden Lion at Venice this weekend, it’s pretty much a lock for a nomination. Judging from the reaction on the ground in Colorado, it’s probably Netflix’s one guaranteed nomination anyway. Campion will have a lot of support for a Directing nomination (Pablo Larrain raved to me about it) while an Adapted Screenplay nomination seems even more likely. Kristen Dunst is the best performance in the film and she’ll absolutely be vying for what is turning out to be a very competitive race for a Supporting Actress nomination. Benedict Cumberbatch seems likely to find support in the Best Actor race and, in a bit of a surprise, Kodi Smit-McPhee could make waves in Supporting Actor. Ari Wegner and Kristy Cameron may both be looking at their first Cinematography and Costumes nominations, respectfully. Jonny Greenwood will also have support for his Original Score. Then again, he’s also competing against himself with “Spencer” and, possibly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s next. We weren’t that impressed with Grant Major’s Production Design, but perhaps the branch will think differently.
“Spencer”
If you want to talk about films with passionate support at the moment, look no further than “Spencer.” A big takeaway from Telluride is that those that love Larrain’s Prince Diana ghost story, ]ove it. And, informally, it seems incredibly popular with women (unlike another movie we’ll discuss in a minute). Can it land a Best Picture nod where “Jackie” couldn’t? Perhaps ponder that before making any bests in Vegas. What is more clear is that pathway for Kristen Stewart to land a Best Actress nod (let’s hold of crowning the winner yet, shall we?), Larrain potentially landing one of what are likely two international slots in the Best Director category (he’ll have a lot of competition), Claire Mathon earning attention in the Cinematography race, Jacqueline Durran potentially going for her third win in Costumes and the aforementioned Greenwood for Original Score.
“King Richard”
Not only is Will Smith going to be a contender in the Best Actor race, but Aunjanue Ellis will garner attention for Supporting Actress. In fact, the current Emmy nominee for “Lovecraft Country,” might be more deserving of a nomination than Smith. As for a Best Picture nomination? Well, “Richard” is undeniably entertaining (almost too broadly at times), but it may need to be a box office hit or for Smith to campaign hardcore to make that happen. 10 guaranteed nominations help, for sure, but it’s still a big “we’ll see.”
“Hand of God”
Frankly, even in an insanely competitive year, we’ll be shocked if Paolo Sorrentino’s latest doesn’t earn an International Film nod. His 2013 feature “The Grand Beauty” already took this category for Italy in 2014 and “God” should be even more entertaining, accessible, and moving to voters. Sorrentino is also a long shot for a Best Director nomination with only a slightly better chance for an Original Screenplay nod.
“C’Mon, C’Mon”
Mike Mills’ last film, “20th Century Women,” landed him his first Original Screenplay nomination. Can he duplicate that feat with his second A24 collaboration? It’s an increasingly packed field this year (usually it’s the easier of the two screenplay nods to land), but he’s certainly worthy of it. That being said, we’re not so sure about a Best Picture nomination, but hey, 10 nods! Gabby Hoffman deserves a hard spotlight for those voting in the Supporting Actress race, though. She’s simply fantastic.
“The Lost Daughter”
At worst, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s impressive directorial debut will find her earning a DGA nomination for First-Time Feature Film. At best, Olivia Colman will land another Best Actress nomination, she’s utterly superb, and Jessie Buckley will make a play for Supporting Actress recognition. As for anything more, while we were genuine fans, this is the picture that Moms, in particular, weren’t vibing with.
“Cyrano”
We were somewhat disappointed in Joe Wright‘s latest, but this musical version of Edmond Rostand‘s classic play should, at the least, be a player in the Costumes, Hair and Makeup, Production Design, and Cinematography categories. Peter Dinklage has a fringe chance at a Best Actor nod, but it will really depend on how the overall field shapes up.
As for non-Fall Festival films at Telluride, Asghar Farhadi’s “A Hero” and Céline Sciamma’s “Petit Maman,” Cannes and Berlin award winner respectfully, found genuine support (look for Amazon to push Farhadi in the Directing and Original Screenplay categories). Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch,” another Cannes premiere, also had its fans, as did Sundance winner “Flee.” Sean Baker’s “Red Rocket” turned out to be one of the more polarizing films at the festival but in the best, buzziest way possible.
Note, while we screened a number of documentaries, it’s simply too hard to judge where that branch will go this year. The shortlist will be quite interesting with that one.
Oscar now moves on to the 2021 Toronto International Film Festival where many of these films will screen again and new contenders such as “Dear Evan Hansen,” “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” and “The Guilty,” among others, will attempt to poke their heads into this year’s murky Oscar waters.