“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” opens in theaters today in the US to close out Phase 4 for the MCU. But don’t expect the film’s worldwide box office numbers to reach those of Ryan Coogler‘s 2018 film. How come? The Hollywood Reporter reports that it looks like China blocks “Wakanda Forever” and another Fall 2022 superhero movie, “Black Adam,” from release in the world’s second-biggest theatrical market.
The news is no surprise given the past three years of China’s strict COVID-19 policies and its increasingly restrictive censorship control. But Beijing’s regulators snubbing big tentpole movie still costs Hollywood millions in potential revenue. For instance, “Black Panther” made $105 million in China during its 2018 theatrical release, while recent Dwayne Johnson vehicles like “Skyscraper” and “Hobbs & Shaw” made $98 million and $201 million, respectively. Time will tell how “Wakanda Forever” does over its opening weekend, but “Black Adam” could use that global box office boost. Its theatrical release has made $321 million globally, but it also cost nearly $200 million to make.
It’s a trend Marvel Studios is used to at this point. Beijing regulators rejected the last six Marvel titles, starting with 2020’s “Black Widow,” for theatrical release. That’s $0 in revenue over half a dozen movies after “Avengers: Endgame” made $629 million in China alone. So, what’s causing the Marvel ban in China beyond COVID-19 restrictions? Various theories include comments in older interviews with Simi Liu and Chloe Zhao that appear to criticize China causing the ban of “Eternals” and “Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings.” As for “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” that film’s climax and its prominent use of the Statue of Liberty may have been too unsubtle a symbol for Chinese authorities of American values.
Or, in the case of “Thor: Love And Thunder,” a brief depiction of openly gay characters may be the cause of its censorship in China. That’s why Hollywood thinks Pixar‘s “Lightyear” didn’t see release in the Chinese market this past summer. And it’d explain why “Wakanda Forever” isn’t getting one either, as the film depicts two characters in an openly gay relationship. But all three movies are Disney properties, and Disney is very public about its stance that the studio will not remove gay content to appease censors in international markets. In the past, Disney refused to trim something from 2017’s “Beauty And The Beast” after Malaysian content officials objected. Disney did the same with “Lightyear” this year with regulators in China and Saudi Arabia.
While not every Hollywood studio follows Disney’s example with gay characters, another reason may explain China’s ban on “Black Adam.” That may have to do with one of the movie’s stars, Pierce Brosnan, and his Instagram post two years ago that shows a picture of him and his family with the Dalai Lama. Beijing believes the spiritual leader to be a dangerous separatist and has banned other entertainment figures and their work from China over their support for him, including Keanu Reeves and Lady Gaga. As outlandish as that theory may sound to US readers, it’s likely a major reason China bars “Black Adam” from the country.
Don’t expect China’s stance on Marvel movies to change any time soon, but “Wakanda Forever” may still fare okay at the global box office. Will it hit the nearly $1.35 billion in revenue of “Black Panther”? Maybe not. But the film may still hit the $1 billion mark globally. “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” hits theaters today.