Say what you will about “Cats,” there’s no denying that Universal is really swinging for the fences with its upcoming holiday release. The musical about singing, dancing, anthropomorphic felines looks very…unique, and it has generated a ton of headlines (not all great) thanks to its two recent trailers. And if a new report is to be believed, it appears that Universal is hoping that all the hard work that has gone into the production is going to pay off with big box office totals. Because if the film isn’t a massive hit, “Cats” could end up being one of the biggest flops of the year.
In a recent Guardian piece about the upcoming Tom Hooper-directed musical film, it’s being reported that “Cats” carries an estimated budget of £230m (approximately $295 million USD), thanks to the massive amount of CGI that goes into turning its all-star cast into the aforementioned singing, dancing felines. And if that budget is accurate (hell, even if it’s in the same ballpark), then “Cats” will have to turn in Marvel Studios-type box office numbers to turn a profit for Universal.
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Once again, we refer to the very basic box office math that says a film needs to make twice its cost (budget plus advertising) to break even, due to theaters taking roughly 50% of ticket sales. Based on that math, and the expected advertising budget that tends to go into films of this size (approx. $100 million), then Universal would need to make around $800 million at the worldwide box office to turn a profit. Of course, it should be explained that this is very basic math and doesn’t take into account tax incentives, financial splits, and any other contractual agreements that could make this number fluctuate.
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Regardless of whether or not the $295 million is an exact budget (even if it’s closer to $200 million), “Cats” needs to be a bonafide blockbuster to be seen as a win for the studio. And judging by the reaction that the trailers have received, though anecdotal, it would appear that Universal has a bit of an uphill battle going into the holiday season. It could come down to reviews and buzz from critics and healthy word-of-mouth. We’ll just have to wait and see.
“Cats” is expected to arrive in theaters on December 20. (Right alongside “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.” No big deal.)