Despite 13 Oscar Nods And Having Already Cleared $100 Million, ‘Benjamin Button’ May Not Be Ultimately Profitable

Ok, so maybe it is the money. A big part of the reason why Paramount probably passed on David Fincher’s “Torso” — aside from it being helmed by a rather cantankerous and fastidious director and the fact that the project will be expensive (as per usual on any Fincher project) — is because the studio is still probably going to take a bath on “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” in spite of having already cleared the $100 million mark in about a month and having nabbed a super high 13 Oscar nominations yesterday.

The L.A Times did a breakdown of the film’s costs today, and it’s looking bleak.

It’s a little scary too because the overwhelming costs of the film make studio nervous to hand over the keys to auteurs to handle big concept projects (see Baz Luhrmann’s “Australia” which is on track to recoup thanks to its global success, but it won’t be a slam dunk).

Or as the L.A. Times puts it, “The [financial] hurdles facing ‘Button’ underscore how risky so-called ‘prestige pictures,’ even ones showered with accolades, have become for the major Hollywood studios.

Here’s the math:

– Paramount and co-financing partner Warner Bros. spend $150 million to make the film.
– An additional $135 million will be spent to market and distribute the picture worldwide.
– Its Oscar campaign could exceed an estimated $10 million. This cost will probably rise.
– The breaking even point is said to the $300 million mark. That’s probably impossible to achieve onscreen unless the film sweeps Oscars and the film is watched the world over once again.

To put things into perspective, “Slumdog Millionaire,” cost $15 million, has already grossed and has already grossed $44 million in the U.S. (another $16.8 internationally and it’s just starting to open up in India where they are freaking out over its 10 Oscar nominations). The L.A. Times suggests the film has an excellent shot at Oscar gold (which it does) and could easily double its $44 million in the U.S. (totally feasible).

Times are tough. Don’t expect any ambitious, “Australia’s” “Where The Wild Things Are” or ‘Ben Buttons’ in 2010 or 2011. Whatever becomes green lit this year, will probably be modestly budgeted at least until this economic crisis levels out.