Rewind to 12 months ago and you couldn’t find an awards pundit, consultant or publicist who didn’t think “Birth of A Nation” was going to win Best Picture and possibly even Best Director. As we now know, that clearly didn’t happen. That’s the sort of hindsight you need when considering where we currently stand halfway through the 12 month-a-year race to Oscar glory. Things can change and, boy can they change quickly (and we’re not just talking misread envelopes at the end of Hollywood’s biggest night).
2017 has been a unique year so far. Luca Guadagnino’s masterpiece “Call Me By Your Name” stunned even the most optimistic Guadagnino fans when it premiered out of competition at Sundance in January. Frankly, this writer didn’t think the gay-themed coming-of-age drama could earn a Best Picture nomination until “Moonlight” won Best Picture a month later. That win showed that the Academy has continued its trend in recognizing artful cinema in ways that has global cinephiles no longer pooh-poohing the Hollywood institution (at least for the moment). And that’s partially because of an increase in international membership which means some of the most influential filmmakers and actors in the world are now active members of the Academy (and more will be joining in the new class announced over the next few weeks). Two years ago, you couldn’t imagine “Call Me By Your Name” earning a nod no matter how many critics anointed it the “best film of the year.” Now? It has a legit shot to take the crown.
Sundance also gave birth to two very different films, “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound.” Both were picked up by different streaming companies and Amazon Studios has already had limited success with a super strong opening for “Big Sick” this past weekend. The original dramedy based on the experiences of co-writers and husband and wife team Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon is a surefire crowd pleaser, but is it Best Picture nomination worthy? We’re not so sure (at least not yet).
Dee Rees’ “Mudbound” deals with racism in post WW II Mississippi and is an impressive achievement with stellar performances (most notably from Carey Mulligan and Jason Mitchell). It’s awards season problem, however, is that it was acquired by Netflix who currently refuse to run their films in theaters before launching on the streaming service. Audiences at the Sundance and Cannes Film Festivals – with a good deal of industry in attendance – laughed or booed when Netflix’s title card and trademark “thomb” sound ran before any of their films. That means “Mudbound” and any other stellar projects such as “Okja” and “The Meyerowitz Stories” are already vying for awards attention with one hand tied behind their back. One of the biggest questions of the fall is whether Netflix’s new head of film publicity, Julie Fontaine (formerly of Lionsgate and “La La Land” fame), can convince the content company to change its theatrical release strategy enough to convince Academy members to consider Netflix films actual theatrical films.
Two other winter releases, Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” and James Mangold’s “Logan,” earned strong critical acclaim and box office to boot. The former was something of a cultural phenomenon while the later allowed Hugh Jackman to hang up his adamantium claws on a high note. “Get Out” is a curious player though. Depending on how the rest of the year shakes out it could make the Best Picture field or it may just fade enough to find Peele with an Original Screenplay nod. Universal can make the case that horror has been worthy of a nod before (see “The Exorcist,” “Silence of the Lambs” and “The Sixth Sense”), but 20th Century Fox may find it harder to make a case for “Logan” in such a crowded field (more on that in a minute).
In 2016 Cannes provided contenders such as “Hell or High Water” and “Loving.” This time around there is Sean Baker’s moving “The Florida Project” and “The Killing of a Sacred Deer.” Both A24 releases are unconventional, but the distributor has become experts, insanely lucky or both at running Academy Award winning campaigns for similarly difficult plays such as “Room” and the aforementioned “Moonlight.” “Florida,” in particular, is heartbreaking enough to move Academy members to passionately champion it and is a much safer bet. The question for “Killing” is will it play better in the states and UK where director Yorgos Lanthimos‘ films tend to be slightly more appreciated than by European critics. Is it simply too dark? We’ll see.
Other notable Cannes debuts included Sofia Coppola‘s “The Beguiled” (a film that feels like it may be forgotten by the fall when a deluge of other prestige fare pop up), Lynne Ramsay’s “You Were Never Really Here” (a massive wildcard beyond Joaquin Phoenix’s performance) and Todd Haynes’ “Wonderstruck” (a beautifully made film that many critics quickly forgot about as the festival went on).
There are two interesting contenders arriving before the fall festival circuit kicks off over the Labor Day weekend: Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” and Kathryn Bigelow’s “Detroit.” Both are taking huge risks opening outside of the fall prestige frame, but each tackles provocative subject matter that should appeal both to audiences and Academy members. And both also just happen to be in the hands of two master filmmakers. You also have likely heard a tremendous amount of praise for Matt Reeves’ “War for The Planet of the Apes” which opens in mid-July. We expect the industry to respect “Apes,” but we’re not so sure it’s truly a legitimate contender.
